Welcome to the August 22nd Edition of Painting the Black, an MLB Pitching Breakdown for Fanduel and DraftKings
In case you all didn’t know, my name is Matt, mdellagnese14 on twitter. I am currently a student at Springfield College with a love and passion for sports, mainly baseball.
I was brought to the DFS Army to write pitching articles for all members of the DFSArmy! If you are not a member, join the DFSArmy and use promo code “DFSMATT” to get 10% off your subscription!
I am mostly a Fanduel player, so the content in my articles will be for geared mainly towards Fanduel. However, I will include pricing from both sites (Fanduel and Draftkings) Some plays may be better off for the two pitcher sites and I will mention that when needed about a pitcher.
Pitching is one of the most, if not the most important position in your MLB lineups and selecting the right one will help you tremendously. Go check out the MLB Pitching Strategy article to get my thought process on picking these pitchers each slate!
NOTE: most of the stats I used are from a 14-game sample to the handiness of pitchers. If I reference season numbers, I will mention that!
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If you find yourself thinking, “what do some of these stats mean?” Check out my new definitions article HERE. I explain what each stat I use mean, and reasons why I use those stats in my articles!
BULLPEN REPORTS
**Note, the rankings are all the way at the end of this article, don’t forget to scroll ALL the way to the end!**
Main Slate
Small slate tonight. If you don’t know, the DFS Army staff has a contest between each other in the form of a free roll from “dradt8386”. I’m sure the link will be posted for it so you all can follow along! Let’s dig in!
Jon Gray (8.6k FD) (7.8k DK) vs SD
Another pitcher that I do like to use in Coors. Gray has better home/road splits just like Anderson did. Anderson did not pan out last night, but the Padres are not as good against RHP. Gray comes into this start with a very good .303 xwOBA at home this season and again, has been very good since getting called back up. Aside from his game against the Dodgers, he has put up all 40 point fanduel games, be able to go deep into the games. Gray is one of those pitchers that I love to use in tournaments because of his strikeout upside and his new ability to go 7+ it seems every start. He comes into this start with a very good 27.4% strikeout rate on the year and just a 6.6% walk rate. Having a SIERA of 3.32 pitching half your games in Coors is great and he does a great job getting 47.7% groundballs. Gray ranks out as our 2nd best pitcher on the slate, (yes 2nd, because Strasburg is NOT in play for me off the DL). The Padres come into this game with a 25.8% strikeout rate against RHP, with just a .310 xwOBA. I love using Gray in tournaments tonight and hope people are a little off him after Anderson didn’t do the best last night.
Carlos Carrasco (10.4k FD) (9.5k DK) @ BOS
Pure tournament play for me tonight against Boston. The Sox are struggling this series and have lost 3 straight. They got some tough pitching to face with the Indians and it could be something in the playoffs too. Carrasco has been very good this year too. Over his last 6 starts, he has gone more than 6 innings in every one of them with a 4-1 record averaging 49.33 fanduel points in those starts. He also ha the ability to rack up strikeouts with many starts over 10 this season and normally sits around 7-9 per start. Carlos has a 28% strikeout rate and gets over 10 K/9 while not walking anyone (5% walk rate). His SIERA sits at just 3.14 and he does a great job getting groundballs (45%). One thing people forget is Carrasco is MUCH better on the road. With almost a full 2 run better ERA on the road and almost 80 points lower on his wOBA. Hitters are barely hitting .200 against him and he has a 28.8% strikeout rate on the road. No one will be on Carrasco tonight facing the dangerous Red Sox, which makes me love him in tournaments. Don’t be scared, scared money doesn’t make money. In tournaments, fire him away!
Noah Syndergaard (9.8k FD) (10.2k DK) vs SF
Likely the chalk of the slate tonight. No one SHOULD touch Strasburg tonight, but we know they will. I advise against it and we will be above the competition! The Giants are not that great of a team right now and after putting up a quick 2 runs on Matz last night, they were held to just 3 total runs last night. The Giants come into this game with just a .272 xwOBA against RHP in their L14 and Syndergaard has the ability to score some points. He hasn’t looked the best this season, (well, as good as we had expected) but the Mets are playing some really good baseball right now and should get the win tonight. San Fran isn’t striking out a ton to RHP lately (20.4%), but shown by their xwOBA they aren’t really doing anything. They have virtually no power and are barely hitting over .200. Despite not being what we all expected, Syndi still has a 24.5% strikeout rate this season and a low 5% walk rate. He rarely gets hit hard (21% Hard%) and gets nearly half his outs as groundballs. The Giants offense does not scare me whatsoever and I can see Syndergaard putting up a 50+ point fanduel/30+ DK game tonight for a cheap price.
Jack Flaherty (9.2k FD) (10.9k DK) @ LAD
Another pitcher who’s DK price is just insane compared to fanduel. I’m not a fan of paying that much there, but I do like his price on fanduel tonight. The Cardinals young starters have impressed this season and Flaherty has arguably been the best one. He comes into this start with a very good 30% strikeout rate, 3.38 SIERA, 1.08 WHIP, .200 BAA, with an xwOBA of .282. I see this game being a pitcher’s duel with Buehler on the other side. Flaherty has given us 6+ in his last 3 starts, and I hope that trend continues and the Cards let him loose. He has proven that when given the opportunity, he can go out there and throw gems. In those last 3, he is 3-0 while averaging 50 fanduel points and 28.85 DK points, with 23 strikeouts in 19 innings allowing just 9 hits and 2 ER. People will get scared off because he’s playing against the Dodgers, but as we at the Army know, the Dodgers can fall flat. Jack Attack has been great to both sides of the plate and actually has some slightly better numbers against left-handed hitters. I love Flaherty in tournaments tonight, though he’s a risky cash game pitcher against the Dodgers, I can see it working out.
Walker Buehler (9.1k FD) (10.4k DK) vs STL
I told you I loved both sides of this game. I do think I give the SLIGHT edge to Buehler, but it’s almost a coin flip. Walker has been amazing over his last 4 starts scoring no less than 40 fanduel points/23 DK points. The thing I love about him is his low walk rate (6%) and his ability to keep runners off the bases (1.04 WHIP). He also has the ability to get some strikeouts with a 26.5% strikeout rate and has at least 5 strikeouts in his last 6 starts. Now that he’s being priced up we do want to see those constant 40+ point games and he has shown he can against some tough opponents (@ SEA, @ COL, vs HOU, and vs MIL). Out of the pitchers that I like today, Buehler has the 2nd lowest xwOBA at just .281, 2nd to just Syndergaard. The red birds have been pretty good lately, but Buehler still has that great upside in this matchup. I think people won’t go crazy using either one of these pitchers, but both have the ability to score fantasy points. It would not surprise me if both scored over 40 FD/20 DK points in tonight’s ESPN game. Love them both for tournaments, but they are a little risky and pricey for cash games for me tonight.
MAIN SLATE RANKINGS
- Noah Syndergaard (all formats)
- Jon Gray (GPP)
- Walker Buehler (GPP)
- Jack Flaherty (GPP)
- Carlos Carrasco (GPP)
QUICK PICK ON FANDUEL PITCHING TIER RANKS
TIER 1: Syndergaard, Carrasco
2: Gray, Buehler, Flaherty
3: Lynn, Lester, Teheran, Junis
4: Johnson, Chirinos (I think he comes in after Stanek) THIS TIER IS AWFUL
Good Luck Everyone!
