Welcome to the August 14th Edition of Painting the Black, an MLB Pitching Breakdown for Fanduel, DraftKings, and Fantasydraft!
In case you all didn’t know, my name is Matt, mdellagnese14 on twitter. I am currently a student at Springfield College with a love and passion for sports, mainly baseball.
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I am mostly a Fanduel player, so the content in my articles will be for geared mainly towards Fanduel. However, I will include pricing from all three sites (Fanduel, Draftkings, FantasyDraft). Some plays may be better off for the two pitcher sites and I will mention that when needed about a pitcher.
Pitching is one of the most, if not the most important position in your MLB lineups and selecting the right one will help you tremendously. Go check out the MLB Pitching Strategy article to get my thought process on picking these pitchers each slate!
NOTE: most of the stats I used are from a 14-game sample to the handiness of pitchers. If I reference season numbers, I will mention that!
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BULLPEN REPORTS
**will be added later or posted in slack!
Main Slate
J.A. Happ (8.8k FD) (9.5k DK) vs TB
Normally I don’t like picking on the Rays, but Happ comes into this game in good form since coming over to the Yankees. He was better outside of Toronto and it has shown so far that he can pitch in Yankee Stadium. In two starts since coming to New York, Happ has gone 6 innings in both outings with 9 strikeouts in his last start against Texas. The Rays come into this game with a .301 xwOBA against LHP in their L14 days and a 23.7% strikeout rate. Happ has been amazing this year with both the Jays and the Yankees with a 27% strikeout rate and 7% walk rate. Happ has allowed a .309 xwOBA this season and a nice 30.7% Hard%. His SIERA is lower than the league average at just 3.53 and he gets a solid 43% groundball rate. The Rays don’t have a ton of history against him, but 4 guys do have more than 10 at-bats against him. He’s allowed a .221 average with a 23.3% strikeout rate and .277 wOBA. Normally, I’d be off pitchers of late against the Rays, but Happ has been able to limit damage and has been good at home for the Yankees.
Anibal Sanchez (8.6k FD) (8.6k DK) vs MIA
Watch out, he might not start after getting pulled early last start when he got hit by a comebacker. If he is okay, then I think he’s a solid option against the Marlins tonight. The Marlins haven’t been striking out a ton over their L14, but they also haven’t really been doing much else. Folty had a great game last night against them, and Sanchez has been very good this year. He comes in with a 1.05 WHIP, .203 BAA, and 24.4% strikeout rate. Sanchez hasn’t been hit very hard this year (28% Hard%) and gets 43% groundballs. Anibal has one of the better xwOBA’s this year on the slate tonight at .291. At home, he’s allowed a .206 average with a .279 wOBA. Both sides of the plate have lower than a .206 average against him. He’s allowed fewer home runs at home, but the Marlins aren’t a power hitting team. Atlanta has been hitting pretty well of late, and Sanchez opens up as a massive -180 favorite tonight. I wouldn’t use him in cash games, but I think, if he’s healthy he’s a great tournament option tonight.
Patrick Corbin (10.4k FD) (11.9k DK) @ TEX
Again, don’t like picking on the Rangers lately, but having a lefty face them makes me like him. Since Corbin is a lefty, he can limit the damage of Gallo, Odor, and Choo. Corbin has been able to shut down offenses this year and has been able to go deep into games for the Diamondbacks. Texas isn’t the same against LHP as they are against RHP. I think what they did last night against Greinke could keep Corbin’s ownership a bit lower. Coming into this game, they have a .307 xwOBA against LHP, with a 24% strikeout rate. Corbin has actually been better against RHH this season allowing just a .244 wOBA and has a 31.1% strikeout rate against them. Corbin doesn’t have bad numbers against either side of the plate. He doesn’t allow many home runs at all and he limits his walks. Coming into this start, Corbin has a career-high 31% strikeout rate with a low 6% walk rate. His SIERA is 2.89, which is one of the best on the slate tonight. Groundball pitchers usually get hit harder, because grounders are usually hit harder, and he has a 49% groundball rate this year. People get scared of the Rangers, but I like this matchup for Corbin tonight.
Justin Verlander (11.2k FD) (12.6k DK) vs COL
People will likely be off Verlander after his HORRIBLE start last time out. Well, he gets to face the Rockies, and they haven’t been as good on the road as they are at home. On the road in the last 14 days against RHP, they have a .297 xwOBA with a 25.5% strikeout rate, .218 average, and 81 wRC+. Verlander has been better away from Houston, but I still think his ownership is down after his last start. Despite allowing a worse average and wOBA at home, he still has a 4.2% higher strikeout rate at home and cuts his walk rate in half. Before that start, he struck out 14 Dodgers, 7 Rangers, and 11 Angels. Those teams don’t strikeout that much either lately. We have seen Verlander top 60 points a few times this year and it’s not impossible for him. He also comes into this start with a very low .249 xwOBA with over a 30% strikeout rate this season. The Rockies don’t have a ton of at-bats against him, but they are hitting .197 with a 28.7% strikeout rate. Verlander will come back with a vengeance this start and it wouldn’t surprise me if he strikes out 10+ hitters tonight.
Ryan Borucki (6.8k FD) (6.7k DK) @ KC
Borucki came out and faced a tough Red Sox team and was able to get a win. He did give up 4 runs but still got the win. It’s no easy task facing the Red Sox, but this matchup is much better than that. He does have 6 starts with more than 20 fanduel points and he’s rather cheap on both sites. Ryan isn’t a big strikeout guy and wasn’t in the minors this year either. He has never allowed many home runs though and he has a solid 46.5% groundball rate. Over his minor league career, he has always been a high groundball guy and never allowed many homers. His SIERA is very high, but his walk rate is low (6.8%), and he gets a ton of grounders, while only allowing 28% hard contact. The Royals do come into this game with a 20.5% strikeout rate, but a 79 wRC+. This is a clear large field GPP play tonight, and only if you’re playing multiple lineups. The Royals have hit 43% groundballs and don’t have that much power latagainstaint RHP. I do think Borucki can come out and put up a solid game at low ownership. On DraftKings he could be higher as an SP2 because he’s cheap and will allow you to get a high priced pitcher with good bats.
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James Paxton (9.8k FD) (11.1k DK) @ OAK
The A’s have since cooled off a bit, and Paxton has been very good lately. Just so happens that he is our highest rated starter on tonight’s slate with a DFSA Grade of 98.5. Solidifying him as a play for me tonight and one of my favorite options. People are afraid to attack Oakland, but Paxton is someone who can shut them down. He’s showing a career high 31.4% strikeout rate, and has a WHIP just over 1.00 with a SIERA of 3.04. Paxton is fairly split neutral, but has a career high 13.8% swinging strike rate on the year. Factor in that he’s allowed just a .294 xwOBA this year and his ability to rack up strikeouts, makes him an elite play. He’s only faced Oakland once this year, and all he did was go 7 innings with 16 strikeouts, good for 73 fanduel points! Absolutely absurd. A repeat performance is a bit much to ask, but he has shown what he can do since then with various 50+ point games. Paxton is elite value on FD under 10k compared to some of the guys priced above him. In 84 at-bats, the A’s have just a .214 batting average, .285 wOBA, and a crazy high 40% strikeout rate. Look for Paxton to rack up a ton of strikeouts tonight. Even with all their power, they still have a 21.7% strikeout rate vs LHP in their L14. Going deep into games is no problem for him either, as he averages 6 innings a start, and throws over 100 pitches 60% of the time. An elite play in all formats and could go over looked with some of the guys above him.
Alex Wood (8.4k FD) (8.2k DK) @ SFG
We just saw Kershaw mow down this Giants lineup in what was a pitcher’s duel between him and Madison Bumgarner last night. Now, Alex Wood is nowhere near Kershaw, but he still has the ability to shut down an offense. He’s our 5th highest graded pitcher tonight, and also has the lowest “bad” rating. Kershaw would have gotten the win last night if it wasn’t for the bullpen blowing the game in the 9th inning after he tossed 8 amazing innings. The Giants have some history against Wood, in 136 at-bats, they have a low .235 average with a .287 wOBA and .132 ISO. Over these at-bats they have just 3 home runs. Wood has a decent .307 xwOBA this season, with a 20.9% strikeout rate, 6% walk rate, and 47.3% groundball rate. I wish his strikeouts were higher, but he still has been able to produce constant 30 point fanduel games. There hasn’t been any news (that I’ve seen) of him being limited coming off the DL, but the Dodgers are usually safe with their pitchers. I do think if he’s able to go 5+ innings he should get the win tonight and put up another 30+ point game at a nice mid-range price.
MAIN SLATE RANKINGS
- James Paxton (all formats)
- Justin Verlander (all formats)
- Patrick Corbin (all formats)
- J.A. Happ (lean GPP)
- Alex Wood (GPP, watch for news on pitch count(s))
- Anibal Sanchez (GPP)
- Ryan Borucki (GPP)
QUICK PICK ON FANDUEL PITCHING TIER RANKS
TIER 1: Paxton, Verlander, Corbin, Kluber
2: Happ, Sanchez, Porcello, Wood, Taillon
3: Borucki, Marquez, Richards, Barria, Fiers
4: Gant, Cashner, Giolito, Odorizzi
Good Luck Everyone!
