Welcome to the August 11th Edition of Painting the Black, an MLB Pitching Breakdown for Fanduel, DraftKings, and Fantasydraft!
In case you all didn’t know, my name is Matt, mdellagnese14 on twitter. I am currently a student at Springfield College with a love and passion for sports, mainly baseball.
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I am mostly a Fanduel player, so the content in my articles will be for geared mainly towards Fanduel. However, I will include pricing from all three sites (Fanduel, Draftkings, FantasyDraft). Some plays may be better off for the two pitcher sites and I will mention that when needed about a pitcher.
Pitching is one of the most, if not the most important position in your MLB lineups and selecting the right one will help you tremendously. Go check out the MLB Pitching Strategy article to get my thought process on picking these pitchers each slate!
NOTE: most of the stats I used are from a 14-game sample to the handiness of pitchers. If I reference season numbers, I will mention that!
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BULLPEN REPORTS
Main Slate
Trevor Bauer (12k FD) (12.5k DK) @ CWS
CHALK ALERT! Bauer is going to be chalk tonight, and yes, I will be eating it. Bauer has arguably been one of the best pitchers in baseball this year, and he isn’t showing any signs of slowing down. He has absolutely killed almost every team this season, and the White Sox are no threat for me. Looking at our lineups page, CWS has a 25.62% strikeout rate with a .300 xwOBA. They have 3 guys with K% over 34%, along with 5 over 25%. Bauer has a 31.3% strikeout rate this season and has two 60 point fanduel games in his last 3 starts. Bauer is also our top-rated pitcher on the RS for this main slate tonight too. It wouldn’t shock me to see Bauer go out and put up 30+ on DK and 50+ on fanduel tonight. Love him for all formats.
Jack Flaherty (8k FD) (9.6k DK) @ KC
This is a good pitching environment for Flaherty tonight. He has the best carnage ratings (2.80, thank you Nilly!) on this slate tonight too, even better than Bauer! Flaherty has done nothing but impress us this year, the one thing I wish he did more was go more than 6 innings. He’s only done that 6 times this year but has shown 40+ point upside too. Elite strikeout numbers for this young guy for the Cardinals and their offense is running really hot right now. Flaherty has a 29.9% strikeout rate on the year, getting 11 K/9, with a decent 8% walk rate. The Royals projected lineup has just a .322 xwOBA with a 22.87% strikeout rate. Jack Attack has allowed just a .270 xwOBA over his last 45 days which is absolutely amazing. He’s one of the highest rated pitchers on this main slate tonight too and is a great play for tournaments tonight.
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Aaron Nola (10.5k FD) (9.8k DK) @ SD
IT’S-A NOLA DAY! Aaron Nola has been phenomenal this season and is showing no signs of slowing down. He also has a great matchup with the Padres in a good pitchers park. Nola comes into this game after struggling last game against the Marlin, but fired 8 strong against the Red Sox before that. He comes to play every start though. When his breaking stuff is on, he’s nearly unhittable. Also, when he fires 6+ innings he can throw up ridiculous fantasy numbers (50+ points in 4 of his last 10 starts). His strikeout numbers haven’t been as high as we like, but that could keep people off him. The Padres are a pesky team at times, but Nola is a great starter and the Padres should show little resistance against him. Their projected starting lineup has an average xwOBA at .324, but they also have a 23.7% strikeout rate and a very low 54.42 average DFSA Grade. Nola is our 2nd highest graded pitcher on this main slate, and I agree with that tonight. Nola is a great play in all formats tonight.
Walker Buehler (7.1k FD) (7.7k DK) @ COL
Hear me out, don’t go using Buehler in cash games, but if you are MME’ing than I don’t mind using him at all. He’s a great young prospect for the Dodgers and has been very good this season. I know he had a bad start his first time in Coors, but he’s had his ups and downs this year. His good start at home against them he was able to rack up 40 fanduel points going 7 innings with 6 strikeouts. Over his last two starts, against some good offenses (Astros and Brewers), he has put up back to back 40 points fanduel games. Buehler comes into this game with a 26.3% strikeout rate with just a 5% walk rate this year. Pitching in Coors will require him to get groundballs in order to limit damage in the thin air of Coors Field. Good thing for him is he’s shown a 50% groundball rate this year, and near 60% when he was in AAA this season. He has a good SIERA at 3.29 and the Rockies projected starting lineup doesn’t have the stats I expected. They come into this game with a .309 xwOBA with a decent 21.8% strikeout rate. Having some games at Coors over the past 14 vs RHP, I am surprised they have these low numbers. Buehler isn’t safe, but I think he does have some upside and could surprise people.
Charlie Morton (10k FD) (11.5k DK) vs SEA
Astros pitching has gotten their butts handed to them the last couple of starts. I wasn’t on Cole last night, and he didn’t pay off his price against these Mariners. They are running hot, but I do like Morton against them tonight. Seattle beat up on both Verlander and Cole, but Morton I think will have a good game tonight. Unlike Verlander, Morton has a near 50% groundball rate, which will help him out tonight. He does come into this start with a 30% strikeout rate on the season and he’s our 3rd highest rated pitcher tonight. Morton does have a 31% hard%, but groundball pitchers tend to have higher hard hit rate against because grounders get hit harder normally. The Mariners are rolling hot right now, but they can tend to disappear. Morton has a very good .268 xwOBA against in the last 45 days and is allowing just a .243 xwOBA against RHH. Morton could go a bit over-looked tonight with the Mariners destroying the rest of the Astros pitching.
MAIN SLATE RANKINGS
- Trevor Bauer (all formats)
- Aaron Nola (all formats)
- Charlie Morton (lean GPP)
- Jack Flaherty (great SP2 option in cash games)
- Walker Buehler (GPP)
QUICK PICK ON FANDUEL PITCHING TIER RANKS
TIER 1: Bauer, Nola, Morton
2: Flaherty, Skaggs
3: Buehler, Freeland, Jackson, Teheran, Duffy, Willams
4: LeBlanc, Straily, Shields
Good Luck Everyone!
