Welcome to the August 10th Edition of Painting the Black, an MLB Pitching Breakdown for Fanduel and Draftkings!
In case you all didn’t know, my name is Matt, mdellagnese14 on twitter. I am currently a student at Springfield College with a love and passion for sports, mainly baseball.
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I am mostly a Fanduel player, so the content in my articles will be for geared mainly towards Fanduel. However, I will include pricing from all three sites (Fanduel, Draftkings, FantasyDraft). Some plays may be better off for the two pitcher sites and I will mention that when needed about a pitcher.
Pitching is one of the most, if not the most important position in your MLB lineups and selecting the right one will help you tremendously. Go check out the MLB Pitching Strategy article to get my thought process on picking these pitchers each slate!
NOTE: most of the stats I used are from a 14-game sample to the handiness of pitchers. If I reference season numbers, I will mention that!
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Main Slate Pitching Breakdown
Masahiro Tanaka (9.6k FD) (10.4k DK) vs TEX
Tanaka has been rolling of late, and so have the Yankees. Tanaka has had his struggles with allowing home runs all season (1.66 HR/9), but he actually has only allowed 5 of his 19 HR at home this year. The Rangers have been striking out a ton vs RHP (no surprise there) at a 24.5% clip. The Rangers had a huge series against the Mariners but they didn’t really face any great pitching there. Tanaka has been fantastic over his last 4 starts. His first start back from the DL was bad, but since then he has been very good. He went 6+ in 3 of his last 4, racking up 2 starts with over 50 fanduel points. Even though he couldn’t make it out of the 5th last start, he was still able to rack up 38 fanduel points, getting 9 strikeouts against the Red Sox. Tanaka has a decent xwOBA this season at .323. Righties struggle and have a near 28% strikeout rate against him, while lefties still have a 24% strikeout rate. Tanaka is really good to both sides of the plate. When his splitter is rolling, he can easily rack up strikeouts and this Rangers team loves to swing and miss. The last thing on Tanaka, he has a very good 14.1% SwStr% this season and he’s allowing a low 71% contact rate this year. I think we can use Tanaka in all formats tonight.
Nathan Eovaldi (8.7k FD) (9.7k DK) @ BAL
Eovaldi has been an amazing addition to the Red Sox since the trade. He has been really good in his two starts with Boston and before that he was rolling up consistent 40+ point fanduel games. Other than his bad start against the Twins, he has gone at least 6 innings in 8 of his last 9 starts. Coming into this start, Eovaldi has one of the better xwOBAs of pitchers I am considering today at .297. In his first two starts with BOS, he has 15 innings with 9 K’s without allowing a run. Baltimore has been hitting lately, but Eovaldi has an aEV of just 88, which isn’t too bad. Since returning (12 starts), Eovaldi has accumulated a 22.6% strikeout rate with a minuscule 3% walk rate and a good 3.59 SIERA. He’s shown a career-high 10.8% swinging strike rate and is throwing more first-pitch strikes, which is helping his walk rate. Baltimore is a team we like to pick on with pitchers, and the Red Sox are red-hot right now. Eovaldi should be good to use in all formats, if not then he’s an amazing tournament play.
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Zack Wheeler (9.4k FD) (10.1k DK) @ MIA
Wheeler has been simply amazing for the Mets this year. Between him and deGrom, they have arguably been the two best pitchers for the Mets (yes, I don’t think Syndergaard is living up to the hype this year). Wheeler has a solid 23.5% strikeout rate on the season, with a respectable 3.99 SIERA. He has a low .309 xwOBA this year and doesn’t get hit very hard either, just 26.7% Hard contact against him. He is rather pricey, but he has shown he can pay off the salary. Over his last 11 starts, he has 9 with more than 30 fanduel points and his last start against the tough Braves he went 7 innings with 9 strikeouts. Zack has not allowed more than 2 walks in his last 4 starts and has multiple games with 7 or more strikeouts. Even when he gave up some runs (4 to WSH), he still was able to get 7 strikeouts and score 38 fanduel points. The Marlins haven’t been striking out as much lately like they were right out of the break, but they do have a 21.2% strikeout rate vs RHP in their L14. Miami has a low 3.7 implied run total at home tonight. Wheeler does very good against righties, so the more righties the better for me tonight. I love Wheeler in tournaments, and he could be considered for cash games of pivots off Tanaka/Eovaldi, both of which will be chalky.
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Jon Gray (9k FD) (7.7k DK) vs LAD
Gray did NOT like being sent down, and it has clearly shown. Since getting called back up, all he has done is go 7+ in every start scoring no less than 40 fanduel points, racking up 25 strikeouts in those 4 starts. Gray and Anderson have been two Rockies who have actually been really good at home in Coors. Gray has looked like a whole new pitcher since being called back up too. Can you believe a pitcher from Coors has the LOWEST xwOBA out of pitchers that I am considering today? Well, he does, at just .292 and has a great 28.9% strikeout rate at home this year. Gray gives up fewer homers and fewer walks at home and gets 56.3% groundballs in Coors, which explains his success there. The more groundballs in Coors the better and Gray has shown that. He averages 35.9 fanduel points at home and already has had 5 starts over 40 fanduel points. The Dodgers have the 2nd highest strikeout rate vs RHP in the L14 at 28.8%. They were on a hot streak, but have since cooled off from that. Gray is an elite GPP option tonight and will likely be low owned on this full slate.
MAIN SLATE RANKINGS
- Masahiro Tanaka (all formats)
- Nathan Eovaldi (all formats)
- Zack Wheeler (all formats)
- Jon Gray (GPP)
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QUICK PICK ON FANDUEL PITCHING TIER RANKS
TIER 1: Tanaka, Wheeler, Cole
2: Eovaldi, Gray, Peralta, Eflin, Bieber
3: Rodon, Maeda, Leake, Williams, Zimmermann
4: Holland, Urena
Good Luck Everyone!
