Welcome to the August 10^th Edition of Painting the Black, an MLB Pitching Breakdown for Fanduel and Draftkings!

In case you all didn’t know, my name is Matt, mdellagnese14 on twitter. I am currently a student at Springfield College with a love and passion for sports, mainly baseball.

I was brought to the DFS Army to write pitching articles for all members of the DFSArmy! If you are not a member, join the DFSArmy and use promo code “DFSMATT” to get 10% off your subscription!

I am mostly a Fanduel player, so the content in my articles will be for geared mainly towards Fanduel. However, I will include pricing from all three sites (Fanduel, Draftkings, FantasyDraft). Some plays may be better off for the two pitcher sites and I will mention that when needed about a pitcher.

Pitching is one of the most, if not the most important position in your MLB lineups and selecting the right one will help you tremendously. Go check out the MLB Pitching Strategy article to get my thought process on picking these pitchers each slate!

NOTE: most of the stats I used are from a 14-game sample to the handiness of pitchers. If I reference season numbers, I will mention that!

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BULLPEN REPORTS

**will be added later or posted in slack!

Main Slate

**Note, I like this slate more for tournaments at an early look. I have work all afternoon, so won’t be around much after 1230. The plays tonight all have some upside, but I’m not sure there is a ton of safety! Play smart and listen to other coaches!

Masahiro Tanaka (9.6k FD) (10.4k DK) vs TEX

Tanaka has been rolling of late, and so have the Yankees. Tanaka has had his struggles with allowing home runs all season (1.66 HR/9), but he actually has only allowed 5 of his 19 HR at home this year. The Rangers have been striking out a ton vs RHP (no surprise there) at a 24.5% clip. The Rangers had a huge series against the Mariners but they didn’t really face any great pitching there. Tanaka has been fantastic over his last 4 starts. His first start back from the DL was bad, but since then he has been very good. He went 6+ in 3 of his last 4, racking up 2 starts with over 50 fanduel points. Even though he couldn’t make it out of the 5^th last start, he was still able to rack up 38 fanduel points, getting 9 strikeouts against the Red Sox. Tanaka has a decent xwOBA this season at .323. Righties struggle and have a near 28% strikeout rate against him, while lefties still have a 24% strikeout rate. Tanaka is really good to both sides of the plate. When his splitter is rolling, he can easily rack up strikeouts and this Rangers team loves to swing and miss. The last thing on Tanaka, he has a very good 14.1% SwStr% this season and he’s allowing a low 71% contact rate this year. I think we can use Tanaka in all formats tonight.

Nathan Eovaldi (8.7k FD) (9.7k DK) @ BAL

Eovaldi has been an amazing addition to the Red Sox since the trade. He has been really good in his two starts with Boston and before that he was rolling up consistent 40+ point fanduel games. Other than his bad start against the Twins, he has gone at least 6 innings in 8 of his last 9 starts. Coming into this start, Eovaldi has one of the better xwOBAs of pitchers I am considering today at .297. In his first two starts with BOS, he has 15 innings with 9 K’s without allowing a run. Baltimore has been hitting lately, but Eovaldi has an aEV of just 88, which isn’t too bad. Since returning (12 starts), Eovaldi has accumulated a 22.6% strikeout rate with a minuscule 3% walk rate and a good 3.59 SIERA. He’s shown a career-high 10.8% swinging strike rate and is throwing more first-pitch strikes, which is helping his walk rate. Baltimore is a team we like to pick on with pitchers, and the Red Sox are red-hot right now. Eovaldi should be good to use in all formats, if not then he’s an amazing tournament play.

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Zack Wheeler (9.4k FD) (10.1k DK) @ MIA

Wheeler has been simply amazing for the Mets this year. Between him and deGrom, they have arguably been the two best pitchers for the Mets (yes, I don’t think Syndergaard is living up to the hype this year). Wheeler has a solid 23.5% strikeout rate on the season, with a respectable 3.99 SIERA. He has a low .309 xwOBA this year and doesn’t get hit very hard either, just 26.7% Hard contact against him. He is rather pricey, but he has shown he can pay off the salary. Over his last 11 starts, he has 9 with more than 30 fanduel points and his last start against the tough Braves he went 7 innings with 9 strikeouts. Zack has not allowed more than 2 walks in his last 4 starts and has multiple games with 7 or more strikeouts. Even when he gave up some runs (4 to WSH), he still was able to get 7 strikeouts and score 38 fanduel points. The Marlins haven’t been striking out as much lately like they were right out of the break, but they do have a 21.2% strikeout rate vs RHP in their L14. Miami has a low 3.7 implied run total at home tonight. Wheeler does very good against righties, so the more righties the better for me tonight. I love Wheeler in tournaments, and he could be considered for cash games of pivots off Tanaka/Eovaldi, both of which will be chalky.

Freddy Peralta (8k FD) (9.2k DK) @ ATL

Normally I don’t pick on the Braves with pitchers, but the Brew Crew have been rolling and have a nice matchup against Kevin Gausman. Peralta has shown us immense upside so far this season with a 33.2% strikeout rate across 53.1 big league innings. As I say every time I write him up, walks are a BIG issue for him. He’s wild and can tend to throw a ton of pitches that will reduce his chances of going deep into the game. Even with the very high walk rate, he still has just a 1.03 WHIP and is allowing a .148 average. I do think that will begin to change as his BABIP is a VERY low .208. An encouraging sight for those stats though is his SIERA sits at a respectable 3.71. He faced this Braves team already this season and went 6 innings with 6 strikeouts, good for 43 fanduel points. Peralta has already shown us 10+ strikeout upside, and he has 14 in his last 10 innings. I love this young kid, and the Braves are actually struggling a bit against RHP. They have the 8^th highest K% in the MLB at 24%. Until he can figure out his walk issues, he’s never cash safe, but he does have GPP winning upside.

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Carlos Rodon (8.2k FD) (7.3k DK) vs CLE

Many people love to use the Indians, and lately, they have been pulling off great games. They are not the same team on the road though. They can be slowed down playing on the road. Rodon also has very good numbers against Cleveland. Over 172 at-bats, they have a .215 batting average with a .262 wOBA and .087 ISO and a high 26% strikeout rate. Rodon got a late start to the season recovering from an injury, but he’s impressed in nearly every start. He has 5 straight games with 6+ innings, scoring no less than 34 fanduel points. Rodon likely won’t go out and strike out a ton, but he normally can get 5+. He has a .316 xwOBA on the season and doesn’t get hit very hard either (27% Hard%). Cleveland has been struggling against LHP of late, having the 4th lowest wRC+ at 50, with a low .247 wOBA, low ISO of .082, and they aren’t getting many hits with a .173 average. This season he hasn’t been the best against CLE, but still managed 9 strikeouts in 11.1 innings. He was hurt by giving up 6 ER though, but he hasn’t allowed more than 2 ER in his last 5 starts. Rodon will likely be low owned and could have some good GPP upside in this one.

Jon Gray (9k FD) (7.7k DK) vs LAD

Gray did NOT like being sent down, and it has clearly shown. Since getting called back up, all he has done is go 7+ in every start scoring no less than 40 fanduel points, racking up 25 strikeouts in those 4 starts. Gray and Anderson have been two Rockies who have actually been really good at home in Coors. Gray has looked like a whole new pitcher since being called back up too. Can you believe a pitcher from Coors has the LOWEST xwOBA out of pitchers that I am considering today? Well, he does, at just .292 and has a great 28.9% strikeout rate at home this year. Gray gives up fewer homers and fewer walks at home and gets 56.3% groundballs in Coors, which explains his success there. The more groundballs in Coors the better and Gray has shown that. He averages 35.9 fanduel points at home and already has had 5 starts over 40 fanduel points. The Dodgers have the 2^nd highest strikeout rate vs RHP in the L14 at 28.8%. They were on a hot streak, but have since cooled off from that. Gray is an elite GPP option tonight and will likely be low owned on this full slate.

Shane Bieber (7.8k FD) (8.3k DK) @ CWS

At first, I was not going to write up Bieber, then I cross-checked the RS, and he was the 4^th highest graded pitcher. He has a favorable matchup against the White Sox who just got decimated by Yankee pitching the last series. Bieber gets hit, and he gets hit HARD (43.8% hard%), but he has been throwing to a good 3.58 SIERA. I believe he has upside in this matchup, and it seems like people just always want to stack against him. The White Sox have a 28.8% strikeout rate against RHP with about average other advanced stats. Shane has a decent 23.5% strikeout rate this year and only has a 4.5% walk rate. His numbers really aren’t that bad besides how hard he gets hit. His BABIP is rather high at .376, and the fact that his SIERA is a full run lower than his ERA makes me like him. Outside of 3 starts all season, Bieber has been able to top 30+ fanduel points in 6 of his 10 starts this year. He pitched very well against the Angels and Twins in his last two starts and has shown us 7 strikeouts multiple times. Go ahead, let people stack blindly against him, while I really like him for a low owned tournament option tonight.

MAIN SLATE RANKINGS 

1. Masahiro Tanaka (all formats)
2. Nathan Eovaldi (all formats)
3. Zack Wheeler (lean GPP)
4. Carlos Rodon (lean GPP)
5. Jon Gray (GPP)
6. Freddy Peralta (GPP)
7. Shane Bieber (GPP)

QUICK PICK ON FANDUEL PITCHING TIER RANKS

TIER 1: Tanaka, Wheeler, Cole

2: Eovaldi, Gray, Peralta, Eflin, Bieber

3: Rodon, Maeda, Leake, Williams, Zimmermann

4: Holland, Urena

Good Luck Everyone!