Welcome to the August 8th Edition of Painting the Black, an MLB Pitching Breakdown for Fanduel, DraftKings, and Fantasydraft!
In case you all didn’t know, my name is Matt, mdellagnese14 on twitter. I am currently a student at Springfield College with a love and passion for sports, mainly baseball.
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I am mostly a Fanduel player, so the content in my articles will be for geared mainly towards Fanduel. However, I will include pricing from all three sites (Fanduel, Draftkings, FantasyDraft). Some plays may be better off for the two pitcher sites and I will mention that when needed about a pitcher.
Pitching is one of the most, if not the most important position in your MLB lineups and selecting the right one will help you tremendously. Go check out the MLB Pitching Strategy article to get my thought process on picking these pitchers each slate!
NOTE: most of the stats I used are from a 14-game sample to the handiness of pitchers. If I reference season numbers, I will mention that!
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BULLPEN REPORTS
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Main Slate
Mike Clevinger (9.6k FD) (9.5k DK) vs MIN
Just like last night for Carrasco, I love this spot for Clevinger. The Twins have some great lefties in their lineup, but they haven’t been that great vs RHP lately. Over their L14 vs RHP, they have a 22.5% strikeout rate and their projected lineup has just a .315 xwOBA with a 21.67% strikeout rate (check Lineups page for the finals when lineups come out). I wish his strikeout rate was higher this season, but it’s still at a solid 24.3%. He has been very consistent of late though. Anytime we can almost lock in a 30 point fanduel performance, I will take it. Clevinger has at least 30 fanduel points in 9 of his last 10 starts and has only walked more than 3 hitters in those starts in 2 of them. His WHIP lately is a bit high for me to use on DraftKings tonight, but on fanduel where it doesn’t mean anything, he’s a great play. We have come to expect 6+ strikeouts from Clevinger whenever he takes the hill for the Indians. Cleveland is running hot of late, and Jake Odorizzi doesn’t scare me enough against the hot Indians team. Fire up Clevinger in all formats tonight.
Luis Severino (9.4k FD) (11.9k DK) @ CHW
Likely going to be the chalk of the slate tonight. Understandable, but he’s been very cold of late. Luckily he gets one of the worst offenses in the league. Chicago comes into this game with a 26% strikeout rate against RHP in their L14 with a .235 average. They have a high xwOBA, but they got shut down against the Yankees in game 1, and didn’t do that great last night against CC either. Severino has had 5 bad starts in a row, and he needs to turn it around because the Yankees really need him. When was the last time we saw Severino UNDER 10k on fanduel? I’ll answer that for you, it was NEVER this season. He is way too good to be under 10k and I think fanduel messed up on this one. Even though the recent struggles, the White Sox are a prime matchup to get back going. The good thing about this is his velocity hasn’t been down he’s just getting hit a ton. I hope he is lower owned because he’s been so bad because this is the perfect spot for him to pop off a 50 point fanduel game. He has small samples against CHW with a .217 average against, 41.3% strikeout rate in 46 at-bats. It isn’t a lot of appearances but still has had success. Luckily for him, they strike out a ton and their offense isn’t that good. The fact that CC had 12 strikeouts last night, YES TWELVE, from CC. That makes me believe Severino should easily get 10+ tonight. Fire him up in all formats because he’s so cheap! He’s more expensive on DK though, and I’m not too sure I’ll use a lot of him there. Just looked at the RS after all of this, and Severino is the top rated pitcher on this main slate, that just solidifies my love for him tonight. FIRE HIM UP!
Jose Quintana (8.2k FD) (8.3k DK) @ KC
I love picking on the Royals. I almost talked about Montgomery last night but I didn’t like his strikeout numbers. Well, I like Quintana’s. He does have the ability to get some strikeouts, even though they have been low lately. Even though he hasn’t had more than 6 strikeouts in what seems forever, he still has 4 30+ point games in his last 5 starts. The Royals come into this game with a horrible 25.6% strikeout rate against LHP and 82 wRC+ over their L14. It’s encouraging that he has been able to go 6+ innings in 4 of his last 5 as well and the Royals are an offense that doesn’t scare me. The Royals projected lineup has just a .319 xwOBA with a 25.57% strikeout rate vs LHP over the last two weeks too. They also grade out as one of the worst on this main slates, having an average DFSA Grade of 47.14. Quintana is hard to use in cash games because he has a low floor, but he does have a 40+ point ceiling. At his price, that is plenty for us.
Clayton Kershaw (11k FD) (12.8k DK) @ A’s
I don’t like picking on the A’s against LHP, but Kershaw is different. He’s almost always in play for me. Yes, he’s facing the A’s who have been pretty good against LHP lately, but Rich Hill was able to go 5.1 innings and get 5 strikeouts on them last night. He was hurt by a HR ball and the 4 walks that he issued, causing him to throw 98 pitches in short time. Kershaw has a small sample against these Atheltic hitters, but two of them have more than 10 at-bats. Lucroy and Davis, and neither have good success. Over 53 at-bats, the A’s have a .113 average striking out 14 times. He seems to be getting back on track lately. We don’t want that 50+ point game from him, especially at his price. He has only shown that once in his last 7 starts though. His ability to go 6+ innings is like no other and he’s been getting more strikeouts lately. The Kershaw we all know and love seems to be getting back to normal with low walks and a strikeout per inning. He also grades out as our 2nd highest pitcher tonight, right under Severino. The Dodgers have a great matchup against Mike Fiers, so Kershaw should be in a good spot for a win tonight too. Only Davis, Lucroy, and Piscotty have higher than the league average xwOBA vs LHP in the L14. The A’s have been on fire lately, but then again, it is Kershaw and he can dominate anyone.
MAIN SLATE RANKINGS
- Luis Severino (all formats)
- Clayton Kershaw (all formats, tough task with the A’s though)
- Jose Quintana (all formats tonight vs weak KC)
- Mike Clevinger (all formats)
QUICK PICK ON FANDUEL PITCHING TIER RANKS
TIER 1: Severino, Kershaw, Clevinger
2: Quintana, Richards, Folty, Chacin
3: Odorizzi, Milone, Fiers, Giolito, Hauschild
4: Gant, Cashner, Kennedy, Killmyer
Good Luck Everyone!
