Welcome to the August 30th Edition of Painting the Black, an MLB Pitching Breakdown for Fanduel and DraftKings
In case you all didn’t know, my name is Matt, mdellagnese14 on twitter. I am currently a student at Springfield College with a love and passion for sports, mainly baseball.
I was brought to the DFS Army to write pitching articles for all members of the DFSArmy! If you are not a member, join the DFSArmy and use promo code “DFSMATT” to get 10% off your subscription!
I am mostly a Fanduel player, so the content in my articles will be for geared mainly towards Fanduel. However, I will include pricing from all both sites (Fanduel and Draftkings) Some plays may be better off for the two pitcher sites and I will mention that when needed about a pitcher.
Pitching is one of the most, if not the most important position in your MLB lineups and selecting the right one will help you tremendously. Go check out the MLB Pitching Strategy article to get my thought process on picking these pitchers each slate!
NOTE: most of the stats I used are from a 14-game sample to the handiness of pitchers. If I reference season numbers, I will mention that!
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If you find yourself thinking, “what do some of these stats mean?” Check out my new definitions article HERE. I explain what each stat I use mean, and reasons why I use those stats in my articles!
BULLPEN REPORTS
**Note, the rankings are all the way at the end of this article, don’t forget to scroll ALL the way to the end!**
Main Slate
J.A. Happ (10.1k FD) (10k DK) vs DET
Happ has been the best addition to the Yankees roster this season and he has been very good since coming over. Like I say almost every time he starts, he was better on the road this season, but now his home numbers are starting to look better because he’s been great at Yankee Stadium. He’s an amazing 5-0 since coming to the Yanks with a 2.37 ERA and an amazing 32 strikeouts in 30 innings. He has only 1 start with lower than 40/20 fanduel/draftkings points since coming over. He’s had at least 8 strikeouts in 3 of the starts too. They have some decent BvP against Happ, but they come into this game in bad form. As a team, they don’t have that high of a strikeout rate (21%), but they don’t have any other good stats. Across their L14 against LHP, they have looked so bad and got shut down by Danny Duffy last night. What we have for their projected lineup, they have just a .275 xwOBA and 0.085 ISO too. Happ right now would be my WC starter if I were the Yankees and his dominance should continue tonight. I love the Yankees offense against Liriano tonight, so I think Happ’s chances for a win and QS are very high.
German Marquez (9k FD) (8.5k DK) @ SD
I love this play tonight and I love that he’s our highest rated pitcher in the research station. He has a fantastic matchup against the Padres and he’s been much better away from Coors. His home/road splits are nothing to ignore. He has a near 3 full run lower ERA on the road while allowing hitters to hit just .198 and giving up a .261 wOBA and having just a .287 xwOBA on the road. Even his starts in Coors have been really good lately. It’s been nearly 2 months since Marquez has scored under 40 fanduel points and that was just 1 game. Since his July 30th start, he has scored at least 40 fanduel points in 9 of the 10 starts and has been going deep into games. There is no reason to pay up for Verlander tonight when you have two people like Happ and Marquez who have been pitching better than him and have better matchups. They have one hitter who grades out higher than a 70, and it wouldn’t shock me to see Marquez score another 50/30+ tonight.
Rick Porcello (9.4k FD) (9.8k DK) vs CWS
I can never seem to get Porcello right, but it’s hard to argue with how he’s been lately. He’s been fairly good this season with some bumps in the road. I do see the tournament upside in him tonight though. He’s been smacked around a bit in his last few starts but has been able to get some good strikeout numbers. The White Sox projected lineup doesn’t look great against RHP lately. They come in with just a .302 xwOBA and 26.76% strikeout rate. Porcello’s xwOBA is rather high, but he also has the upside to score 40/20+ tonight. I like that he grades out well and has one of the better carnage ratings on this slate. Rick has been good against RHH though with just a .285 xwOBA. They are projected to have split lefties and righties tonight though, but only 3 of them have above average xwOBA in the L14. He comes into this game with a good 23.8% strikeout rate and a low 5.7% walk rate. His SIERA sits at 3.69, while he doesn’t get hit too hard, he does get 44.7% ground balls. I’m never a fan of using Porcello in cash games, but tonight he has GPP upside.
MAIN SLATE RANKINGS
- J.A. Happ
- German Marquez
- Rick Porcello (I’d keep him more in GPPs)
These are my three favorite plays tonight. I wish I could give you more, but I don’t think that more is really necessary. If you want to play Verlander, I won’t argue with that, I just don’t think we need to pay all the way up. I would use these guys all over tonight given the small slate. Play light, and save that bankroll for NFL and NBA which both start soon!
Make sure you join in to the FantasyDraft free roll for Week 1 of the NFL season!
QUICK PICK ON FANDUEL PITCHING TIER RANKS!
TIER 1: Happ, Verlander, Porcello, Foltynewicz
2: Marquez, Hill, Musgrove, Ray, Heaney
3: Montas, Gant, Giolito
Stacks that I like today!
Yankees
No, I’m not being a full homer tonight. I LOVE the Yankees tonight against Liriano. He’s the 2nd worst rated pitcher on this slate, and over the last 45 days, he has allowed a .400 xwOBA and 4 earned runs in each of his last two starts. Liriano has no upside, and the Yankees should be able to tee off on him tonight. MAIN TARGETS: Torres, Andujar, Stanton, Hicks
Braves
Mike Montgomery is coming off the DL to make this start tonight and Braves hitters should be salivating. Montgomery isn’t very good and strikes no one out. Before hitting the DL, he has among the worst xwOBA’s on this slate at .382. Both sides of the plate are hitting well against him and the Braves have dangerous hitters. They don’t grade out that well on the RS, which I’m not really sure why, but I like them as a sneaky stack tonight. MAIN TARGETS: Acuna, Flowers, Albies, Culberson (lefty masher)
Astros
They are one of the hottest teams in baseball right now and are implied close to 5 runs. Heaney has been okay against them but did get beat up last start. For Houston, the main guy I like is Alex Bregman. Other than that, we can use lefty mashers who are hot like Springer, Marwin Gonzalez, Tyler White, Yuli Gurriel (seems like no one plays him, but he can go off tonight). pretty much their whole lineup is in play for me tonight
Red Sox
I hate recommending the Sox mainly because I hate them, but I do think they could be deadly tonight. Giolito has been pretty good lately, but the Sox are again putting up runs in bunches. MAIN TARGETS: JD, Xander, Betts, Nunez
Giolito has been really, really bad at home this year and the Sox will prob score 6+ tonight.
Rockies
Laurer is not good. The Rockies mash left-handed pitching and people don’t like to play them on the road. Playing in San Diego is not usually where DFS players like to use an offense from. If they are going to be lowered owned, I love them even more. MAIN TARGETS: Arenado, Story, Desmond, LeMahieu, Iannetta (great value, esp on FD)
Good Luck Everyone!
