Welcome to the August 29th Edition of Painting the Black, an MLB Pitching Breakdown for Fanduel and DraftKings

In case you all didn’t know, my name is Matt, mdellagnese14 on twitter. I am currently a student at Springfield College with a love and passion for sports, mainly baseball.

I was brought to the DFS Army to write pitching articles for all members of the DFSArmy! If you are not a member, join the DFSArmy and use promo code “DFSMATT” to get 10% off your subscription!

I am mostly a Fanduel player, so the content in my articles will be for geared mainly towards Fanduel. However, I will include pricing from all both sites (Fanduel and Draftkings) Some plays may be better off for the two pitcher sites and I will mention that when needed about a pitcher.

Pitching is one of the most, if not the most important position in your MLB lineups and selecting the right one will help you tremendously. Go check out the MLB Pitching Strategy article to get my thought process on picking these pitchers each slate!

NOTE: most of the stats I used are from a 14-game sample to the handiness of pitchers. If I reference season numbers, I will mention that!

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BULLPEN REPORTS

**Note, the rankings are all the way at the end of this article, don’t forget to scroll ALL the way to the end!**

Main Slate

**I think this is much more a tournament slate tonight. Pitchers all have risk to them and it would be hard to trust any of them in cash games**

C.C. Sabathia (8.2k FD) (8.9k FD) @ CWS

CC has been something else over his last three starts. He hit the DL and showed no effects of his knee going out there and striking out 8 Orioles in 6 innings. C.C. has been rather consistent for the Yanks this season and they need another win tonight against the White Sox. He was just in this situation 3 starts ago and all he did was go out and strike out 12 hitters, the most he’s had in a long time. Since that start, Sabathia has found his strikeout stuff again, getting 27 strikeouts over his last 17.2 innings. Now, I don’t think it is going to be sustainable for him, but the White Sox are another great matchup for him. Chicago’s projected lineup does not look good at all the L14 vs LHP. They have a 27% strikeout rate with just a .301 xwOBA and CC never gets hit hard either. Over the last 45 days, CC has just a .317 xwOBA allowed and an 86.7 mph aEV which is pretty low. The Yankees offense is dangerous, and they do have a good matchup against Lopez. CC has the chance at a win and, though I don’t expect another 12 strikeouts against them, I see him having another great game.

Freddy Peralta (8.7k FD) (9.7k DK) @ CIN

Definite GPP pitcher until he can figure out his control issues. Peralta has been hit or miss this season but has shown us elite upside. Unlike yesterday, there are not as many stud pitchers, so we may have to take some risks tonight. Coming into this start, Peralta does have an elite 30.4% strikeout rate, allowing a mere .166 BAA, and just a 1.13 WHIP, but he gets hit hard (41%), and allowed 13% walks. I do think negative regression will come for Peralta, but despite the 50% flyball rate, he allows just 0.78 HR/9. He has two starts against these Reds this year, one was “eh” and one was very good. The last one he was able to snag 7 strikeouts over 7 innings, good for 52 fanduel points and 30.75 DK points. Peralta, this year has always been boom or bust, he can go out and score 40+ or score under 20. The Reds come into this game with a very high 25.3% strikeout rate against RHP but have been pretty average in other advanced categories. When looking at what we have for their projected lineup, they have just a .290 xwOBA which is almost .100 points lower than their wOBA. I like the upside for Peralta tonight.

Sean Newcomb (8.3k FD) (9.2k DK) vs TB

Newcomb has been hit or miss this year too. He does rate out as our 2nd highest pitcher on this main slate tonight, and I tend to agree. The matchup is good against the Rays, even though they have been very good in some spots. Our projected lineups for the Rays has a very bad 26.83% strikeout rate, but a rather high xwOBA, they do have a very low 55.28 average DFSA Grade though. After a few rough starts, Newcomb came out firing the last start in a good matchup with the Marlins, going 6 innings and striking out 8 hitters. Newcomb has been very trending this season too. He’ll roll off a string of 3-5 good starts, then be very bad for a few starts. It has been a rollercoaster for Newcomb’s strikeout numbers this year, as he can get 7+ or less than 3. I do like his upside in this matchup, but he’s still kind of risky. If he can go out and get another good start, he could be in the GPP winning lineup.

Alex Wood (8.5k FD) (8.4k DK) @ TEX

Last night I wasn’t on Buehler, but I actually like Wood tonight against them. The Rangers are different against LHP than RHP. Their projected lineup is almost the opposite it was last night. They have just a .263 xwOBA against LHP with a 0.055 ISO, and 23.76% strikeout rate. As a team, they are hitting just .183 and have a 31 wRC+ vs LHP in the L14. Wood, like most pitchers on this slate has been very hit or miss. If the Rangers keep 3-4 lefties in their lineup like we have projected, Wood definitely has upside in the matchup as all of the lefties have high strikeout rates. Before his last start, Wood had 5 straight games with 30+ fanduel points. Taking a look at our wonderful starting lineups page, Wood has been pretty damn good over the last 45 days. He has a .306 xwOBA overall and is allowing an average exit velocity of 85.9 MPH. Wood has the potential to be lower owned tonight too and I think he’s a great option.

Dereck Rodriguez (9.3k FD) (9.5k DK) vs ARI

Another matchup where I like both sides of this game. The offenses have been bad lately and there was a solid pitcher’s duel last night. Tonight I can see the same as these two pitchers have been good this season. We know Arizona is a much different offense on the road, and Rodriguez has been very very good this season. He missed 2 weeks when he was on the DL, but came back with a decent outing. The Diamondbacks come into this game with a .325 xwOBA vs RHP and a high 23.74% strikeout rate. D-Rod comes into this game with a low 20% strikeout rate, but he hasn’t really been walking many hitters or allowing hitters to get on-base (1.00 WHIP). In a previous start against the DBacks, he went 6.1 innings striking out 5, which was good for 44 fanduel points. He has rolled off a string of good starts and after last night’s game, I see another low scoring affair.

Zack Godley (9k FD) (8.6k DK) @ SFG

The Giants have been absolutely horrible of late. Godley ranks out as our top pitcher on the slate, and I tend to agree. The Giants projected lineup looks very bad, as they have a .287 xwOBA. 0.081 ISO, and 23.45% strikeout rate. Godley has been up and down this year too, but the Giants are a good team to face to get back on track. After 3 amazing starts, Godley has been bad over his last two.  Godley is rated very high tonight, (95.5 DFSA Grade) and that’s hard to ignore. Despite the two rough starts, Godley has the 3rd best xwOBA over the last 45 days on the slate tonight at .292. The good thing is, his aEV is just under 86 MPH, which is one of the lowest on the slate. If he can keep the ball on the ground, I see him having a solid outing tonight, especially with how bad the Giants have been playing. I see this game being 0-0 for a while as last night was.

MAIN SLATE RANKINGS 

1. Zack Godley (all formats)
2. Dereck Rodriguez (all formats)
3. C.C. Sabathia (lean GPP)
4. Alex Wood (borderline cash, but lean GPP)
5. Freddy Peralta (GPP)
6. Sean Newcomb (GPP)

Each of these plays have risk. It’s hard to trust many in cash games if I had to pick my cash pitcher would be between Godley and Rodriguez. After that, the rankings are pretty loose for GPPs. These are the 6 guys I am targeting tonight though!

QUICK PICK ON FANDUEL PITCHING TIER RANKS!

TIER 1: Godley, Rodriguez

2: Sabathia, Wood, Newcomb, Arrieta, Mikolas

3: Minor, Cobb, Williams, Lopez 

Good Luck Everyone!