Welcome to the August 21st Edition of Painting the Black, an MLB Pitching Breakdown for Fanduel and DraftKings

In case you all didn’t know, my name is Matt, mdellagnese14 on twitter. I am currently a student at Springfield College with a love and passion for sports, mainly baseball.

I was brought to the DFS Army to write pitching articles for all members of the DFSArmy! If you are not a member, join the DFSArmy and use promo code “DFSMATT” to get 10% off your subscription!

I am mostly a Fanduel player, so the content in my articles will be for geared mainly towards Fanduel. However, I will include pricing from both sites (Fanduel and Draftkings) Some plays may be better off for the two pitcher sites and I will mention that when needed about a pitcher.

Pitching is one of the most, if not the most important position in your MLB lineups and selecting the right one will help you tremendously. Go check out the MLB Pitching Strategy article to get my thought process on picking these pitchers each slate!

NOTE: most of the stats I used are from a 14-game sample to the handiness of pitchers. If I reference season numbers, I will mention that!

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If you find yourself thinking, “what do some of these stats mean?” Check out my new definitions article HERE. I explain what each stat I use mean, and reasons why I use those stats in my articles!

BULLPEN REPORTS

Will be posted back tomorrow morning with report!

**Note, the rankings are all the way at the end of this article, don’t forget to scroll ALL the way to the end!**

Main Slate

**Note, this is article one of 2 for me this week, going on Vacation from Thursday-Sunday!  I’ll try to get something out Sunday night for Monday’s slate if I can!

Tanner Roark (8.6k FD) (7.7k DK) vs PHI

Bet you didn’t think Roark would make this list tonight. I never really love him, and normally he’s an “eh” type pitcher, but the matchup is good tonight. The Phillies do have some powerful bats, but they also strikeout. He’s faced them 3 times this year already and has 2 really good starts and one awful start. He’s rather cheap on both sites tonight and has some upside. He has won his last 5 starts, recording quality starts in all 5 of them. The Phillies come into this game with a decent 21.8% strikeout rate and are not walking that much. They have a very low 66 wRC+ with a below average xwOBA vs RHP at .306 over the last two weeks. Roark actually has the worst xwOBA of the guys I’m looking at tonight, but it’s still only .328 and that isn’t that bad. Since the ASB, Roark has 35.2 innings and has a great 1.77 ERA, allowing a .225 xwOBA. He’s been able to get a small increase in K%, but the big thing is he has lowered his walk rate by 5% in the second half so far. If Roark can continue his groundball rate (about 42% this year) and get a few strikeouts tonight, he could have himself another 30+ point fanduel game.

Blake Snell (9.6k FD) (11.5k DK) vs KC

WOAH, his price on DraftKings, that is VERY steep. I can’t pay that for him there, but on fanduel, the price isn’t all that bad. He was able to throw 76 pitches last start after throwing just 47 in his first one back. That makes me believe that he is going to be just fine here tonight. Despite the low pitch counts, he was still able to go 5 innings in his last 2 starts allowing just 5 hits in 10 innings striking out 12 hitters and giving up no runs. Despite having some time off, Snell still has a 28.5% strikeout rate on the year, and besides the Yankees, he has been phenomenal all season. He rarely allows baserunners (1.02 WHIP) and hitters are hitting just .180 against him. Snell’s SIERA is not sparkling, but it still is below the average. The matchup with the Royals is a great one too. They have a .313 xwOBA vs LHP over the last 2 weeks and Snell has allowed just a .292 xwOBA on the season. The Royals only have a 20% strikeout rate vs LHP in their L14, but they also have a low xwOBA, a 53 wRC+, .063 ISO, and are hitting just .201. Snell is an elite option on fanduel but I will leave him for tournaments on DK for that high price tag.

Masahiro Tanaka (10.2k FD) (10.2k DK) @ MIA

First off, I’m not happy with Tanaka’s recent form, but the matchup tonight is too good to pass up. He gets a positive park shift and gets to face a pitcher for the Marlins. This could add up to a couple extra strikeouts for Tanaka tonight. Tanaka has had rough outings of late but still has a 3.57 SIERA on the year with a solid 47% groundball rate and a 25.3% strikeout rate. When his splitter is on, he can be unhittable, but when it’s flat and staying up he tends to give up home runs. Luckily for him, the Marlins are not a home run hitting team and the ballpark favors Tanaka here. Over the L14 to RHP, the Marlins have just a .287 xwOBA which is well below the league average. Tanaka has been better on the road this season allowing under a .300 wOBA with a great 27% strikeout rate on the road. Tanaka has shown better numbers almost across the board on the road and the Marlins do not scare me at all right now.

Jose Berrios (9.1k FD) (10.9k DK) @ CWS

Man, I love this matchup for Berrios tonight. He absolutely destroys the White Sox. I hope his last two starts will put people off him, but he had two tough opponents in Pittsburgh and Cleveland. Believe it or not, Berrios’s strikeout numbers have gone up 2.1% from last season and he’s walking almost 1% fewer hitters. He’s been improving his walks in the bigs and has shown his strikeout upside that he had during the minors. This season he has 3 starts against Chicago and has put up amazing numbers. He’s 3-0 with 23 strikeouts in 22 innings allowing just a .192 batting average. He has 2 60 point fanduel point games against them, and nothing here makes me believe that he can’t do it again. His road struggles are well known, but the White Sox are not that good of an offense. They have a low .278 xwOBA over their L14 vs RHP, and also have the highest strikeout rate in the MLB at 29.1% and are not walking a lot. We can’t say the White Sox have no history against Berrios. They have a .175 batting average, .237 wOBA, and 35.7% strikeout rate in 137 at-bats against him. Berrios, this morning is my top pitcher and I think he will be lower owned by recency bias. Fire him up tonight and reap the rewards.

Tyler Anderson (6.6k FD) (6.9k DK) vs SD

Uhm, do these sites not know that Anderson is better in Coors? Well, this is exactly where we take advantage of this mispricing. His home/road splits are pretty obscene. Anderson has a very good .299 xwOBA at home this season, with a .306 wOBA and 23.2% strikeout rate and 40% groundball rate. Surprisingly, he gives up fewer home runs at home in the thin air. People will likely be off him in Coors and after he got roughed up against Houston. The Padres have just a .307 xwOBA vs LHP in their L14 with a 21.4% strikeout rate and well below .200 batting average. They are a team who can hit for power and no average but can tend to strikeout a lot. He’s a consistent 30 point fanduel scorer at home, which is plenty, especially at his very low price. His last 6 starts at home, he’s scored the following fanduel points; 37, 35, 34, 43, 61, and 30. Those are pretty damn good starts for a pitcher in Coors. The Padres do have some okay numbers against him, but only have 2 home runs in 93 at-bats and just 7 extra-base hits. Anderson is a great tournament play tonight and likely will be low owned.

Patrick Corbin (10.8k FD) (11.9k DK) vs LAA

The Angels are still without Mike Trout, and they have not been the same against LHP since. Factor in that the Angels lose their DH tonight and their projected lineup right now is not scary at all. Corbin is having a career year for the Diamondbacks this season. Coming into this start, he has a 30.7% strikeout rate with just a 6% walk rate. He rarely allows baserunners (1.03 WHIP. with a .213 BAA), and has a SIERA or just 2.91. A groundball pitcher (48.6% GB rate), that gets hit hard (41% Hard%), but he gets the job done. People may look at the hard contact and be wary of him, but that’s what happens with groundball pitchers. Over their L14 vs LHP, they haven’t been as bad as they were a week or so ago, but that projected lineup does not look that scary. Corbin has gone at least 6 innings in his last 6 starts and has 4 starts with 7 or more strikeouts. He has 14 quality starts this season and can be counted on for 30+ fanduel points. Since he’s priced up near 11k on FD and 12k on DK, we want to see more than that. I think he does have the ability to put up 40+ tonight and has the chance to rack up a couple extra strikeouts against the pitchers for the Angels.

Michael Kopech (6k FD) (7.6k DK) vs MIN

Have to admit, I wasn’t really liking this kid much. Then Dan and I talked it out for what seemed to be forever this morning. Kopech has a tough matchup with the Twins and I doubt anyone uses him because they have been red-hot of late. They do strike out a bunch (12 last night and 23.1% in L14 vs RHP). Kopech was a big piece in the Sale trade to Boston and he’s been great in the minors this season. Walks were his big issue this year, he even walked EIGHT hitters in one game earlier. BUT, since that start, he has issued just in 18 walks in his last 64 innings. What makes it even better is over his last 7 starts (44 innings), he has just 4 walks, yes you read that correctly. Kopech has elite strikeout stuff with a 31.3% strikeout rate this season getting over 12 K/9. He hasn’t given up many home runs this year and hitters are hitting just .215 against him. I believe he’s a very high upside play tonight in tournaments and will be less than 5% owned I believe.

MAIN SLATE RANKINGS 

1. Jose Berrios (all formats)
2. Patrick Corbin (all formats)
3. Blake Snell (better value on fanduel, watch for pitch count)
4. Tyler Anderson (GPP)
5. Masahiro Tanaka (GPP because of recent form, great matchup though)
6. Michael Kopech (GPP ONLY)
7. Tanner Roark (GPP) 

QUICK PICK ON FANDUEL PITCHING TIER RANKS

TIER 1: Berrios, Corbin, Snell, Tanaka

2: Roark, Ryu, Hendricks, Gausman, Eovaldi

3: Velasquez, Guerra, Leake, Gaviglio

4: Anderson, Kopech

NOTE: QUICK PICK RANKINGS ARE FOR QUICK PICK ONLY!!! JUST BECAUSE I LIST PEOPLE HERE MEANS I LIKE THEM IN THAT TIER! I MAY NOT LIKE THEM ENOUGH TO USE FOR A 1 PITCHER SITE LIKE FANDUEL!

Good Luck Everyone!