Welcome to the August 16th Edition of Painting the Black, an MLB Pitching Breakdown for Fanduel and DraftKings
In case you all didn’t know, my name is Matt, mdellagnese14 on twitter. I am currently a student at Springfield College with a love and passion for sports, mainly baseball.
I was brought to the DFS Army to write pitching articles for all members of the DFSArmy! If you are not a member, join the DFSArmy and use promo code “DFSMATT” to get 10% off your subscription!
I am mostly a Fanduel player, so the content in my articles will be for geared mainly towards Fanduel. However, I will include pricing from both sites (Fanduel and Draftkings) Some plays may be better off for the two pitcher sites and I will mention that when needed about a pitcher.
Pitching is one of the most, if not the most important position in your MLB lineups and selecting the right one will help you tremendously. Go check out the MLB Pitching Strategy article to get my thought process on picking these pitchers each slate!
NOTE: most of the stats I used are from a 14-game sample to the handiness of pitchers. If I reference season numbers, I will mention that!
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If you find yourself thinking, “what do some of these stats mean?” Check out my new definitions article HERE. I explain what each stat I use mean, and reasons why I use those stats in my articles!
BULLPEN REPORTS
**Note, the rankings are all the way at the end of this article, don’t forget to scroll ALL the way to the end!**
Main Slate
**NOTE: Today is very risky for cash games. I would only play some tournaments and play light and within your bankroll limits. Save your money for tomorrow’s big slate!**
Tanner Roark (8.9k FD) (9.1k DK) vs STL
Pitching today is not the best, but there are still some solid tournament plays. None are safe, but some have upside. First, let’s talk about Roark. Looking at our lineups sheet, Roark has allowed a decent .304 xwOBA over the last 45 days and he’s been hot for the Nationals. He has 4 straight quality starts and has racked up the strikeouts too. Before this stretch, he was bad, very bad, but he’s turned it around at the right time for the Nationals. The All-Star break definitely helped him figure things out. He has 4 straight games with 34 or more fanduel points and even topped 67 against the Brewers. What I love is his ability to go deep into games. Every time he takes the hill we can expect him to go 6 or more innings. Since the ASB, Roark has a 24% strikeout rate with just a 1.8% walk rate and has a WHIP at just 0.84. Neither side of the plate has hit in that hard this season (25% to LHH and 29% to RHH), and he has the ability to get about 45% groundballs. The Cardinals have been hot lately, but if Roark can limit the damage and get a few K’s he could have a solid scoring game tonight.
Jon Gray (9.4k FD) (8.7k DK) @ ATL
Likely the chalk of the slate tonight, and though I don’t love him tonight, he peeks my interest because he’s been much better lately. Before his start against the Dodgers, he had 4 straight 40 point fanduel games going at least 7 innings in every start. The Braves are not a team I normally pick on, but Gray has shown some upside. He’s done a great job at keeping his walks low this year and has a very good 27.1% strikeout rate. He does give up a bunch of hits but also has a very good 47.7% groundball rate on the season. Gray has shown a career-high 13.5% SwStr% this season. He’s also our top-rated pitcher on the RS tonight and I can see him being the highest scoring pitcher tonight. He does have some small history against the Braves, but it is pretty good history. Over 49 at-bats, he has a 32.6% strikeout rate, while allowing a .184 average. The Braves best hitter, Freeman, is 2-9 against him with 6 strikeouts! Even though the Braves projected lineup has an 18% strikeout rate, I can see Gray getting a few here tonight.
Francisco Liriano (5.8k FD) (5.8k DK) @ MIN
Normally it’s hard to use a Tigers pitcher because they are not that good of an offense, but the Twins have not been good against LHP lately. Liriano has also been pretty bad lately, but something has to give here. He’s very cheap and over the L14, the Twins projected lineup has just a .286 xwOBA with a very high 26.83% strikeout rate. Liriano has been better away from home this year and also has been very good against lefties. We have the Twins projected for 4 lefties in their lineup tonight, which should help Liriano a bit. Again, I don’t love using him, but on a slate with some rough pitching options, I think he could put up an okay line, that will allow you to get all the bats that you want.
Clay Buchholz (8.6k FD) (9.5k DK) @ SD
I love picking on the Padres. Last night Pena made quick work out of them, going 6 innings and striking out 7 before the bullpen blew his lead. Buchholz has actually been very good lately for the Diamondbacks. The DBacks should be able to tee off on Nix and should leave Clay with a good chance at the win tonight. He comes into this start rolling over his last 5 starts. Clay has scored 31, 46, 35, 42, and 36 fanduel points in his last 5 starts going 4-1 with 3 QS. He just faced this Padres team a couple starts ago and struck out 7 over 5.2 innings, just shy of getting a quality start. The Padres are implied just 3.7 runs as of now, and their projected starting lineup has a 23.6% strikeout rate. I can see Clay being chalk on this slate tonight, but on a small slate sometimes we need to just eat it and differentiate with bats. Clay has been great lately and from our lineups page, he has a .309 xwOBA over the last 45 days with an average EV of around 84 mph. Righties are actually hitting better against him lately, so if they throw out more lefties, the more I will like him. I can see him going for 40+ on fanduel tonight though and 20+ on DraftKings.
MAIN SLATE RANKINGS (GPP RANKS ONLY TODAY)
- Clay Buchholz
- Jon Gray
- Tanner Roark
- Francisco Liriano
QUICK PICK ON FANDUEL PITCHING TIER RANKS
TIER 1: Gray, Roark
2: Buchholz, Teheran, Lester, Nova
3: Liriano, Gaviglio, Jurado, Nix
QUICK PICK TONIGHT IS UGLY AND WILL BE CHALKY. DON’T PLAY A LOT ON IT AND STICK MORE TO GPPS!
Good Luck Everyone!
