Welcome to the August 15th Edition of Painting the Black, an MLB Pitching Breakdown for Fanduel and DraftKings
In case you all didn’t know, my name is Matt, mdellagnese14 on twitter. I am currently a student at Springfield College with a love and passion for sports, mainly baseball.
I was brought to the DFS Army to write pitching articles for all members of the DFSArmy! If you are not a member, join the DFSArmy and use promo code “DFSMATT” to get 10% off your subscription!
I am mostly a Fanduel player, so the content in my articles will be for geared mainly towards Fanduel. However, I will include pricing from both sites (Fanduel and Draftkings) Some plays may be better off for the two pitcher sites and I will mention that when needed about a pitcher.
Pitching is one of the most, if not the most important position in your MLB lineups and selecting the right one will help you tremendously. Go check out the MLB Pitching Strategy article to get my thought process on picking these pitchers each slate!
NOTE: most of the stats I used are from a 14-game sample to the handiness of pitchers. If I reference season numbers, I will mention that!
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BULLPEN REPORTS (L14 DAYS)
**Note, the rankings are all the way at the end of this article, don’t forget to scroll ALL the way to the end!**
Main Slate
Zack Wheeler (10k FD) (10.8k DK) @ BAL
ALL ABOARD THE WHEELER TRAIN! I love Zack Wheeler tonight, I do wish my Yanks tried to trade for him, but oh well. Wheeler has been amazing this season. His SIERA sits at 3.94, and he hasn’t gotten hit hard at all (just 26.5% Hard%). He relies on his 43.5% groundball rate and rarely gives up any home runs (0.8 HR/9). While he has a solid 23.8% strikeout rate, he has the ability to go 6+ whenever he takes the hill for the Mets. Wheeler is in great form coming into this game too. Over his last 10 starts, he has at least 34 fanduel points in 7 of those, going at least 7 innings in 6 of them. Baltimore has been a little hot of late, but they still strike out a ton. Their projected lineup has a very high 25.54% strikeout rate and an average DFSA Grade of just 51.87. What I love about this is Wheeler is our 3rd highest pitcher on this main slate tonight. Zack comes into this game with the 4th lowest xwOBA on the slate at .280. He’s been dominant against righties (.211 xwOBA), and a bit worse against lefties. Luckily for him, we have them projected to just have 3 lefties in their lineup, and none of which really scare me at all. Wheeler is a great play, even though his price is creeping up there.
Nathan Eovaldi (8.4k FD) (9.3k DK) @ PHI
After last night’s game, how can we not go back to a Red Sox pitcher? Rick Porcello and the Sox staff just mowed down this Phillies lineup last night and Eovaldi has the ability to rack up strikeouts too. This game could be another low scoring game with two decent pitchers on the hill. Since being traded to the Sox, Eovaldi has just 1 bad start after 15 scoreless innings. He does grade out well tonight, and there aren’t many pitchers that I like tonight. The Phillies projected lineup has a 22.84% strikeout rate vs RHP over their L14, with 6 of the 8 (not the pitcher) over a 20% strikeout rate. Eovaldi has the 3rd best xwOBA over the last 45 days on this slate, and neither side of the plate has really had great xwOBA numbers against him lately. His strikeout stuff hasn’t been there, but it’s actually higher than it was when he was with the Yankees in 2015-2016. At 21.1%, that is still decent and he’s getting about 7 K/9. His ability to limit walks helps him go deep into games, as he normally issues just 1-2 free passes per start. Great groundball stuff (45% GB rate) causes his Hard% to go up, but he has an average 3.81 SIERA on the season. The Phillies do have a good offense, but they also tend to strikeout, I.E. last night. Eovaldi is a great tournament play tonight.
Kevin Gausman (7.2k FD) (8.7k DK) vs MIA
Likely my favorite tournament play tonight and a great SP2 in cash games. If you guys didn’t see earlier, Anthony shared this message in the #mlb-notes-and-news channel.
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This puts Gausman even more on my radar, plus he’s our 2nd highest rated pitcher on tonight’s slate. This is where we have an edge on the competition. People may think because he’s facing the Marlins he’s in play, but we have the proof and stats to back it up. The Marlins come into this game with a horrible .258 xwOBA, 0.080 ISO, and an average DFSA Grade of 48. They haven’t been striking out all that much, but Gausman is still good for 5+ a night. His xwOBA doesn’t look good, but he’s faced teams like the Brewers, Red Sox, Phillies over his last few starts. The Braves should be able to tee off on Urena tonight, and that should give Gausman the win. Kevin (not talk about you Geek), has been able to give us starts of 40+ on fanduel and he’s a decent price on both sites tonight. Love him in tournaments as well.
Gerrit Cole (10.4k FD) (12.2k DK) vs COL
Verlander just pitched a great game last night against the Rockies, racking up 11 strikeouts and was only hurt by a 2-run homer from Arenado. Cole is our top-rated pitcher tonight according to the RS with a grade of 94.30 and he also has the lowest “BAD” rating on the slate. Cole has definitely not been himself lately, and now we seem him at a solid price on fanduel. On DK, he’s still up there, but I think he pitches well tonight. Last time out against these Rockies in Coors, he went 6.1 innings, while striking out 9 hitters. He comes in with not the best form (7 ER in last 2 starts), but the Rockies aren’t hitting that well either. They are a different team outside of Coors. When looking at the lineups page, they don’t have very much green color there. They have an xwOBA of .304, ISO of .143, and a decent K% at 21.8%. Cole is an elite pitcher and with the Rockies struggling to score runs (even though they scored more once Verlander left last night), I love him tonight. He will likely be the chalk of the main slate and he has great upside tonight.
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Tyler Anderson (7k FD) (8.4k DK) @ HOU
I see another pitching duel tonight in Houston. Anderson, a reverse splits pitcher is projected to see just 3 lefties in the lineup tonight. He comes into this start with one of the best xwOBA’s over the last 45 days and he’s been good to lefties too. His aEV isn’t that high either and the Astros come in struggling against LHP lately. They haven’t been striking out a lot, but they do only have a .263 xwOBA over the last 14 vs LHP. Anderson has been pretty consistent this year in and outside of Coors. He’s priced like he is pitching at Coors again, and he can easily put up a 30+ point game, maybe even 40 like Marquez last night. He’s usually sitting around 5-8 strikeouts per start and if he can do that tonight he should be able to get the quality start tonight. I wouldn’t use him in cash games, but I do like him in tournaments tonight. Pairing him and Gausman on DK could be the winning combo tonight.
MAIN SLATE RANKINGS
- Gerrit Cole (all formats)
- Zack Wheeler (all formats)
- Nathan Eovaldi (lean GPP)
- Kevin Gausman (GPP)
- Tyler Anderson (GPP)
QUICK PICK ON FANDUEL PITCHING TIER RANKS
TIER 1: Cole, Wheeler, Eovaldi
2: Gausman, Bieber, Velasquez
3: Anderson, Bundy, Erlin, Holland, Estrada
4: Pena, Faria (GPP), Cessa
Good Luck Everyone!
