Welcome to the August 9th Edition of Painting the Black, an MLB Pitching Breakdown for Fanduel, DraftKings, and Fantasydraft!
In case you all didn’t know, my name is Matt, mdellagnese14 on twitter. I am currently a student at Springfield College with a love and passion for sports, mainly baseball.
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I am mostly a Fanduel player, so the content in my articles will be for geared mainly towards Fanduel. However, I will include pricing from all three sites (Fanduel, Draftkings, FantasyDraft). Some plays may be better off for the two pitcher sites and I will mention that when needed about a pitcher.
Pitching is one of the most, if not the most important position in your MLB lineups and selecting the right one will help you tremendously. Go check out the MLB Pitching Strategy article to get my thought process on picking these pitchers each slate!
NOTE: most of the stats I used are from a 14-game sample to the handiness of pitchers. If I reference season numbers, I will mention that!
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BULLPEN REPORTS
Main Slate
James Paxton (10k FD) (10.6k DK) @ HOU
Normally, facing Houston I will avoid pitchers. Not tonight when the pitcher is James Paxton. I was surprised to see him graded as our top pitcher in the RS for tonight’s slate. I know Paxton is good, but I didn’t realize his numbers were THIS good against the Astros hitters. They have seen him plenty (142 at-bats), and they are hitting just .197 with a 26% strikeout rate. They only have 9 extra-base hits against him, and none of them have been home runs. Looking at their projected lineup from our lineups page, the Astros have not been that good lately. They come in with an xwOBA of just .319 while their average grade is just a 54.28 against Paxton, as a whole they have the 2nd lowest grade on this slate. Paxton has been great coming into this game too, besides his start @ the Angels. Aside from that one, he has scored 30+ fanduel point in 8 of his last 10 starts, topping 67 with a handful of 40+ point games. Strikeouts are NO issue for Paxton. Over his last 10 games, he has at least 7 strikeouts in 8 of them, topping 11 once. Against the Astros this season, Paxton has thrown 20.2 innings, has allowed just 2 ER, .203 average against, and has 21 strikeouts. I love me some Paxton tonight.
Justin Verlander (11.8k FD) (12.4k DK) vs SEA
This is going to be a wonderful game for pitching tonight. Both of these studs have amazing upside and each offense is going to have some problems tonight. Verlander grades out as our 2nd highest pitcher after Paxton tonight. The Mariners have the lowest implied total on the night, and they just had a tough series with the Rangers. Verlander comes into this game with a 33.7% strikeout rate this year and rarely walks anyone. He has one of the best WHIP’s in the league at 0.88 with a SIERA of 2.74. Normally doesn’t get hit hard at all, and gets a bunch of flyball outs. Justin has 2 60+ point games in his last 3 starts, and has 40+ fanduel points in 6 of his last 10. 6+ innings is usually no problem for Verlander either and he has 10+ strikeout upside whenever he toes the rubber. While looking at the starting pitcher hub in the lineups sheet, Verlander has a very low xwOBA over the last 45-days. He’s been getting hit rather hard, as his average exit velocity is near 92 mph. Verlander can rack up strikeouts in a hurry though. Mainly because of the price, I will be using Paxton more than Verlander tonight.
Tyler Anderson (6.8k FD) (5.9k DK) vs LAD
Anderson is one of the Rockies pitchers who actually pitches really good in Coors. Anderson has the best xwOBA on this slate over the last 45 days at .252. I love this matchup for him because people will not use him that much. At Coors this year, Anderson has almost a run lower ERA, while getting near 23% strikeout rate. The big thing he’s able to do is limit hard hits and grab some strikeouts. In his last 6 home starts, he has scored more than 30 fanduel points in all but 1. Normally, he can go 6+ innings and has gone 7+ multiple times this season. His first start against the Dodgers this year was not very good, but his second one was amazing. He went 8 innings with 8 strikeouts, not allowing a run. Over the L14 vs LHP, the Dodgers are among the worst in a few advanced categories. They have the 2nd lowest wRC+ at just 41, a low .152 average, virtually no power at all, and have a 23.1% strikeout rate. Anderson typically pitches well in Coors, and he’s very cheap tonight. The Dodgers can run hot at any time, so Anderson is not cash safe, but I still like his matchup in tournaments.
J.A. Happ (8.4k FD) (9.3k DK) vs TEX
The Yankees are starting to roll now and faced the White Sox at the perfect time. It doesn’t get that easy for them against the Rangers. The Rangers had a great series against the Mariners last time out and put up a ton of runs. Happ has an incredible history against the Rangers though. I know teams change over the years, but his numbers are very good. Since he only has 6 starts against them in his career, we can’t look TOO deep into it, but it’s still success. He has thrown 36 innings with a strikeout per inning and a low 1.04 WHIP. Their current roster does have 57 at-bats against him though, with a .123 average and they have a high 31.5% strikeout rate. Happ was a big accusation for the Yankees at the deadline, and they need him to produce. Their projected lineup is hitter WAY better than they are supposed to be numbers wise. They have a .317 xwOBA with a 22.79% strikeout rate. Happ has the ability to get some strikeouts too with a 26.6% strikeout rate this season. Happ has been better on the road this year. Why do I mention this? Well, he only has 1 start with the Yankees, so all of his home starts (but 1) were in Toronto. I like this spot for Happ tonight against the Rangers.
MAIN SLATE RANKINGS
- James Paxton (all formats)
- Justin Verlander (all formats)
- J.A. Happ (GPP)
- Tyler Anderson (GPP)
QUICK PICK ON FANDUEL PITCHING TIER RANKS
TIER 1: Paxton, Verlander, Porcello
2: Happ, Stripling, Nova
3: Anderson, Borucki, Suarez, Jurado
Good Luck Everyone!
