Welcome to the August 7th Edition of Painting the Black, an MLB Pitching Breakdown for Fanduel, DraftKings, and Fantasydraft!
In case you all didn’t know, my name is Matt, mdellagnese14 on twitter. I am currently a student at Springfield College with a love and passion for sports, mainly baseball.
I was brought to the DFS Army to write pitching articles for all members of the DFSArmy! If you are not a member, join the DFSArmy and use promo code “DFSMATT” to get 10% off your subscription!
I am mostly a Fanduel player, so the content in my articles will be for geared mainly towards Fanduel. However, I will include pricing from all three sites (Fanduel, Draftkings, FantasyDraft). Some plays may be better off for the two pitcher sites and I will mention that when needed about a pitcher.
Pitching is one of the most, if not the most important position in your MLB lineups and selecting the right one will help you tremendously. Go check out the MLB Pitching Strategy article to get my thought process on picking these pitchers each slate!
NOTE: most of the stats I used are from a 14-game sample to the handiness of pitchers. If I reference season numbers, I will mention that!
ALWAYS PAY ATTENTION TO THE WEATHER FROM OUR VERY OWN @DFSWEATHER IN SLACK!!!
Any updates will be given in our VIP Slack Channel! <– click here to see our pricing to get the whole VIP experience!
If you find yourself thinking, “what do some of these stats mean?” Check out my new definitions article HERE. I explain what each stat I use mean, and reasons why I use those stats in my articles!
BULLPEN REPORTS
Main Slate
Max Scherzer (11.9k FD) (13.9k DK) vs ATL
Could be chalky tonight, but Scherzer is in a great spot. The numbers are just getting better and better for the Cy Young candidate every start. He comes into this game with a 34.7% strikeout rate and just 6.3% walk rate on the season. His WHIP is 0.91, with a SIERA of 2.72. He has a very low xwOBA of just .268 and hitters are just not getting it done against him. Anytime out Max can grab us 10+ strikeouts, and he has done that in his last two starts. Facing the Braves is nothing new for him though. In 3 starts against them this year, he has allowed just 4 ER in 20 innings with 24 strikeouts. They have plenty of history with Max (235 at-bats) and have a .251 average with a 26% strikeout rate. Max is expensive, and it could make him lower owned, making me like him more tonight. The fact that he is so expensive I think will cause his ownership to be even lower so people can afford high priced bats. If this is the case, I will like him more in this spot at home. Remember, always watch the weather though!
Carlos Carrasco (10.6k FD) (11.5k DK) vs MIN
Carrasco has been hot or cold against the Twins this season. He was brilliant last start in Minnesota, racking up 62 fanduel points in 7.1 innings. But when he last faced them at home he couldn’t get out of the second inning. Carrasco is too good to stink for very long. He is rolling over his last 3 starts too, scoring more than 44 fanduel points in each one. He has 7+ strikeouts in 7 or his last 9 starts too. Despite some of his bad outings, he still has a great 3.22 SIERA and a solid 27.8% strikeout rate. With Scherzer on this slate, it could cause Carrasco to be either much higher owned because of the price difference, or lower owned because people want to spend up for Max. If people want to pay up for Coors bats, they likely will not go to Max and Carrasco will become chalky, which will make me back off him a bit. He has been much worse at home this season, but he still can pop off for a 40+ point fanduel game. This will leave me to keep Carrasco more towards tournaments tonight because it’s at home. Minnesota is about average across the board against RHP in the L14 days, but they do have a 22.2% strikeout rate which is good for Carrasco to get a few extra K’s tonight. I love Carrasco for tournaments tonight.
Miles Mikolas (8.3k FD) (9k DK) @ MIA
The Marlins, what do we do about them. They are so pesky and aren’t really that good. They tend to single the crap out of pitchers and don’t normally hit for much power. Since coming back to the states, Mikolas has been very good for the Cardinals this season. Not a big strikeout guy, so don’t expect to get 8+ from him tonight, but he doesn’t walk anyone either. He has just a 4.5% walk rate this year, a WHIP of 1.08 and gets almost 51% groundballs. Miles is very good against righties and has the best xwOBA against them among the pitchers that I like today. He still has a .301 xwOBA against all hitters, which is 3rd best. What I love about him, is his ability to go 6+ innings every time he toes the rubber. In 22 starts this season, he has gone 6+ in 17 of them. The longer he throws, the more points he can rack up. Miles is no stranger to 40+ point fanduel games either, he has 8 of them this year and a number of 30+ point games too. The Marlins have been pretty bad lately and actually, have the highest strikeout rate vs RHP in the L14 at 28.2%. They also have a low 5% walk rate, which makes me like Mikolas even more tonight. Miami comes into this with a very low 67 wRC+ against RHP with just a .268 wOBA and just a .295 xwOBA as a team. Mikolas is very consistent and can put up a solid start here tonight.
Chase Anderson (7.6k FD) (7.8k DK) vs SD
I know I know, EW its Chase Anderson. Hear me out. This is a VIP only GPP play, so he’s all yours tonight. Anderson has actually been VERY solid lately. A solid mid-range pitcher who has put up back to back 30 point fanduel games and 18 point DK games. When he’s on, he can put up 30+ points every game. He definitely has his downside, making him a GPP ONLY pitcher, but he does have upside. Not much of his advanced stats sparkle, as he has just a 19.7% strikeout rate and rather high 9% walk rate. The Padres do not look that great lately either. They have a 25% strikeout rate, .227 average, a .283 xwOBA, and an awful 67 wRC+ against RHP in their L14 games. Anderson has a small sample against the Padres, but in 52 at-bats they have a .154 average against him with a 23% strikeout rate. He is better on the road, but the Padres are not the hottest right now and I think he’s very low owned and has good upside tonight. Remember, GPP only though.
Zack Greinke (10.2k FD) (10.1k DK) vs PHI
Another high upside play tonight at likely lower ownership. The Phillies can be very good, but they also have a very high strikeout rate. Against RHP, they have the 4th highest in the L14 days at 27.4%. Greinke has been amazing this season and has been very good at home since coming to the Diamondbacks. Over his last 4 starts, Greinke has been very good going 6+ innings in every start with 3 wins. He lost his last start against the Giants and wasn’t able to hit value at such a high price tag. Greinke does have strikeout upside and has a 26% strikeout rate at home. He doesn’t walk many hitters and rarely gives up home runs at home either. xwOBA is a number that I have grown to love thanks to Keith. Zack has a .310 xwOBA at home this season and also has a 3.15 xFIP. The Phillies roster has success against Greinke, but they do still strike out a ton and he has upside. People may fade off him after his iffy start against the Giants last time out, but I still like him.
Andrew Heaney (8.9k FD) (8.8k DK) vs DET
LOVE this play here tonight. Heaney grades out as our 4th highest pitcher on the Research Station and faces the lowly Tigers. They have been “okay” against LHP of late, but Heaney has upside in this matchup. He’s rolled off 6 straight 6+ inning games and also has 7 in his last 9 of 6 or more innings. His fanduel point output is been very solid as well. Averaging 34.66 fanduel points and 18.2 DraftKings points. Those are solid numbers for a guy that is priced near 9k against the Tigers. Heaney comes into this start with a solid 23% strikeout rate this year and isn’t walking many hitters either. His WHIP sits at 1.13 while allowing a .325 xwOBA on the season. Despite getting hit rather hard (38.4%), he has a respectable 3.87 SIERA while getting a decent 11.5% swinging strike rate. Andrew has shown us 10 strikeout upside against a few teams this year, but normally sits around 6 per start. I like him to be able to pitch well in this game against DET, virtually unowned because people hate playing late night hammers for some reason.
MAIN SLATE RANKINGS
- Max Scherzer (all formats)
- Zack Greinke (all formats)
- Carlos Carrasco (lean GPP)
- Miles Mikolas (lean more cash, low K% is not the best for GPPs, but he could pop off tonight)
- Andrew Heaney (lean GPP)
- Chase Anderson (GPP)
QUICK PICK ON FANDUEL PITCHING TIER RANKS
TIER 1: Scherzer, Greinke, Carrasco
2: Mikolas (cash #1), Heaney (GPP #1), Newcomb
3: Anderson, Manaea, Sabathia
4: Lopez (CWS), Hernandez, Romano, Lopez (MIA) This tier is UGLY
Good Luck Everyone!
