Welcome to the August 2nd Edition of Painting the Black, an MLB Pitching Breakdown for Fanduel, DraftKings, and Fantasydraft!
In case you all didn’t know, my name is Matt, mdellagnese14 on twitter. I am currently a student at Springfield College with a love and passion for sports, mainly baseball.
I was brought to the DFS Army to write pitching articles for all members of the DFSArmy! If you are not a member, join the DFSArmy and use promo code “DFSMATT” to get 10% off your subscription!
I am mostly a Fanduel player, so the content in my articles will be for geared mainly towards Fanduel. However, I will include pricing from all three sites (Fanduel, Draftkings, FantasyDraft). Some plays may be better off for the two pitcher sites and I will mention that when needed about a pitcher.
Pitching is one of the most, if not the most important position in your MLB lineups and selecting the right one will help you tremendously. Go check out the MLB Pitching Strategy article to get my thought process on picking these pitchers each slate!
NOTE: most of the stats I used are from a 14-game sample to the handiness of pitchers. If I reference season numbers, I will mention that!
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BULLPEN REPORTS
Main Slate
Max Scherzer (11.8k FD) (13k DK) vs CIN
No surprise to see Max listed here today is there? The beauty of our research station is that when I did an early look, 4 of the top 5 guys peaked my interest before I even looked at the RS. Well, Max grades out as our best DFSA Grade of the day and comes in with a decent matchup tonight too. The Reds have a 22.8% strikeout rate in their L14 vs RHP, which is 9th highest in the MLB right now. Max is well, Max, he has 60+ point upside every time he toes the rubber for the Nationals. Washington’s offense is starting to heat up too, so that is going to make things a tad easier for Scherzer tonight. Just like every year, Scherz is always in the Cy Young race and this year is no different. He still maintains a 34.4% strikeout rate on the year and actually has lowered his walk rate by 1% from last year. His WHIP is 0.90 and his SIERA is 2.73, which rank some of the best on this slate today. I think he’s a bit easier to play on fanduel tonight, but it will be tough on DK for that 13k price tag. I do think he is worth it though. Can he still create new career highs? YUP, he’s gotten a 16.5% SwStr%, which is a full 1% higher than his previous career high. If you can afford him, Max is one of the best options on this slate tonight.
Nick Pivetta (8.3k FD) (8.5k DK) vs MIA
May have some weather to deal with here, but luckily we have the best weather man in the DFS industry on our side! Pivetta has been up and down this season but has always shown us that elite strikeout upside. Pivetta is the perfect GPP pitcher because he can go out and give us 50 or less than 10. He comes into this start in good form though, striking out 12 last start vs the Reds, and has increased his strikeouts each start since he got lit up against the Nationals 4 and 5 starts ago. It’s encouraging to see that Pivetta ranks 4th in our DFSA Grades for pitchers this evening. Miami has been brutal since the ASB though, racking up a ton of strikeouts. They rank 2nd in strikeout rate in the MLB at 28.2%, have a lower 70 wRC+, and just a .273 wOBA in their L14. Miami has some good BvP, in a small sample, but it still isn’t bad. Nick has been a bit better at home this year, and he can shut down right handed hitters. With a wonderful 29% strikeout rate and just about average walk rate, Pivetta is pitching to a 3.27 SIERA and has gotten 44.7% groundballs. I think Pivetta is a great GPP option on this slate at a nice price. Now seeing that he has the 2nd best Carnage rating on this entire slate makes me love him even more. Fire Pivetta up in tournaments tonight.
Mike Foltynewicz (8.5k FD) (10.5k DK) @ NYM
WOW, the price difference from fanduel and DraftKings. I love him more on FD, but his DK price should keep him lower owned, making him a great GPP pivot off some of the others that I like tonight. Folty has a great matchup with one of the worst teams in baseball in the Mets. He had a great 1st half, even making the All-Star team and pitched very well all season so far. He’s struggled a little of late but has had a ton of 30+ point fanduel games. The Mets have a decent 21.6% strikeout rate vs RHP lately, and surprisingly their other advanced stats aren’t that bad. BUT! We all know how bad the Mets can be and Folty has a very good 28.4% strikeout rate this year. He has been able to maintain almost an 8% increase in strikeouts from last season, and overall is pitching much better. We used to always want to pick on him, but he has shown us this year that is no longer the case. A big thing I look at with Folty is his WHIP and BAA. He has decreased his WHIP from 1.48 to 1.19 and his BAA went from .271 to .206 this year. He’s doing a much better job getting more SwStr (1.3% increase) and has increased the number of sliders he has thrown, which could be helping him get those extra strikeouts. I think his last couple rougher outings will keep people off of him, but then again he is facing the Mets. I think he should be able to go 6+ tonight with 7+ strikeouts and get the win. Folty and Pivetta make an excellent pair for tournaments on DK as well.
Clayton Kershaw (10.7k FD) (11.6k DK) vs MIL
Rich Hill got hit around a bit last night against the Brewers, but he was still able to get a few strikeouts. Kershaw ranks as our 3rd highest pitcher according to the RS and that made me like him even more, even In a tough matchup with the Brew Crew. Kershaw has always been dominant at home, so he does get an extra boost here tonight. He does have a career 31.7% strikeout rate against these Brewers hitters, but only 3 have more than 10 at-bats against him. Kershaw has been much better over his last 4 starts, and has given up just 2 ER in his last 2 starts. One big thing that he has been consistent with the last 4 is being able to keep the ball on the ground. He has about a 55% GB rate over his last 4 starts while getting 26 strikeouts over his last 4 starts (26.1 innings). Kershaw, when healthy has no issues going 6+ innings and has done that in his last 5 starts. I think the Dodgers are going to be able to hit off Chacin tonight, leaving Kershaw a great chance for a win tonight. Although the Brewers projected starting lineup looks pretty good, and only has a 15% strikeout rate, I think Kershaw is coming back into form and makes for a great play tonight. MIL is also only implied 3.12 runs right now.
Zack Greinke (11k FD) (11.2k DK) vs SF
I don’t know if I’ve ever seen Greinke this expensive before, but he’s been pitching lights out lately. He has 3 straight games over 46 fanduel points, and also has 7+ innings in each of those starts racking up at least 6 strikeouts in each. Zack Attack has also won 7 of his last 8 starts, and 9 of his last 11 starts. An elite arm all season, with a 26% strikeout rate and miniscule 1.58 BB/9, Greinke does not allow many runners on base. Greinke is actually our 2nd highest rated in the Research Station, and I think I agree with that. He has had success against the Giants. In 240 career at-bats, (7 hitters have more than 20 AB’s against him), they have just a .225 batting average with only 6 home runs, while accumulating a 20% strikeout rate. I wish the strikeout rate was higher, but only one hitter is hitting .300 against him, (Hundley) and he doesn’t scare me much. Greinke, since becoming a Diamondback has been simply amazing at home too. He has aloowd just a .207 average at home with a .262 wOBA, being able to rack up 72 strikeouts in 67.2 innings. His xwOBA sits under .300 over the last 45 days and his average exit velocity is just around 85-86 MPH, which is rather low on this slate. Add in that the Giants projected starting lineup has just a .281 xwOBA with a 22.05 K% and low ISO, this makes me love Greinke tonight.
OTHERS I DON’T MIND FOR MME PURPOSES OR LARGE FIELD GPPS
CC Sabathia @ BOS
CC has some good history against the Red Sox. Over his last 3 years, he has been pretty good against them too. He has 1 good and 1 bad start this season against them, and according to our lineups page, their projected lineup doesn’t look that great. They have an xwOBA of just .259 with an ISO of .099 and a 23.66% strikeout rate. CC normally doesn’t get hit hard but doenst get a ton of strikeouts either. I think this game is either going to be 10-9, or 2-1 and it’s always hard to tell with the Yanks and Sox. We cannot rule out a 30+ point game from CC though.
Jhoulys Chacin @ LAD
Don’t love this play, as his wOBA is much lower than his xwOBA. We cannot argue with the carnage rating for him though and the fact the Dodgers are a bit cold now. His carnage is 2.82 and the Dodgers have an xwOBA of just .309 over the last 14 days. Chacin does a great job of shutting down RHH, with an xwOBA of just .248 over the last 45 days, but lefties give him struggles. If he can get around the lefties and grab a few strikeouts, he could have a solid game tonight.
MAIN SLATE RANKINGS
- Max Scherzer (all formats)
- Zack Greinke (all formats)
- Clayton Kershaw (more GPP, tough matchup)
- Mike Foltynewicz (lean GPP, but cash viable vs NYM)
- Nick Pivetta (GPP)
- Jhoulys Chacin (large field GPP)
- CC Sabathia (large field GPP)
QUICK PICK ON FANDUEL PITCHING TIER RANKS
TIER 1: Scherzer, Greinke, Kershaw
2: Pivetta, Foltynewicz (1 and 1a for me in this tier), Bumgarner, Chacin, Sabathia
3: Hernandez, Cashner, Montgomery, Johnson (GPP only)
Good Luck Everyone!
