Welcome to the August 1st Edition of Painting the Black, an MLB Pitching Breakdown for Fanduel, DraftKings, and Fantasydraft!
Can you believe it’s already August?! Time is just flying by and it’s almost NFL season!
In case you all didn’t know, my name is Matt, mdellagnese14 on twitter. I am currently a student at Springfield College with a love and passion for sports, mainly baseball.
I was brought to the DFS Army to write pitching articles for all members of the DFSArmy! If you are not a member, join the DFSArmy and use promo code “DFSMATT” to get 10% off your subscription!
I am mostly a Fanduel player, so the content in my articles will be for geared mainly towards Fanduel. However, I will include pricing from all three sites (Fanduel, Draftkings, FantasyDraft). Some plays may be better off for the two pitcher sites and I will mention that when needed about a pitcher.
Pitching is one of the most, if not the most important position in your MLB lineups and selecting the right one will help you tremendously. Go check out the MLB Pitching Strategy article to get my thought process on picking these pitchers each slate!
NOTE: most of the stats I used are from a 14-game sample to the handiness of pitchers. If I reference season numbers, I will mention that!
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If you find yourself thinking, “what do some of these stats mean?” Check out my new definitions article HERE. I explain what each stat I use mean, and reasons why I use those stats in my articles!
BULLPEN REPORTS
Main Slate
Before I begin, this slate is not that good. Few weather issues and the pitching options are not the best. Tonight would be a great night to take off. But for those of you playing, don’t worry, I got you!
Rich Hill (10k FD) (9.6k DK) vs MIL
Let’s start off the night with Rich Hill. He’s been pretty good this year, when healthy and has some great strikeout stuff. The Brewers are not striking out a ton vs LHP, but Hill is getting over a K per inning this year. Coming into this start, he has a 26.2% strikeout rate and a 3.79 SIERA. He gets hit VERY hard (44.4%), but has allowed an xwOBA of .291, which is the 2nd best on this main slate. Despite having a high Hard hit %, his aEV is just around 83 mph. Hill has struggled at home this year, allowing almost .100 high wOBA than on the road, but still is getting more than a strikeout per inning. He’s been on a roll in his last two starts against the Brewers and the Braves, and look who he has tonight. Over his last two, he has 13 innings, with 17 strikeouts and just 8 hits while allowing just 1 ER. When healthy, Hill is a very good starter, he just has issues staying healthy. MIL has been good lately, but Hill will likely be chalky on this main slate tonight, and I don’t mind using him.
Kyle Freeland (8.3k FD) (8.6k DK) @ STL
Freeland has been pretty solid this season and actually has some better numbers at home in Coors. The Cardinals projected lineup looks hotter than ever, but Freeland is a high groundball pitcher and does a good job limiting damage. He’s not a big strikeout guy, so don’t expect many of those tonight, but his WHIP is 1.23, and his Hard% is at just 30.6%. The main reason I like him tonight is his 47% groundball rate and he normally goes 6+ innings. At a price in the low and mid 8k’s a 30 point game is perfect for us. Saying that he has 11 starts over 30 fanduel points this season with a handful over 40. He was able to slow down the red-hot A’s last start and If Freeland can keep the ball on the ground and get a few strikeouts, he could put up another 30+ point game.
Luke Weaver (7k FD) (7k DK) vs COL
I’ve been back and forth on Weaver all morning, but I do like the spot for him compared to others in his price range. Weaver pitched great last start against the Cubs. Over his last 6 starts, he has 4 of them over 37 fanduel points going at least 6 innings in 3 of them. The games he got rocked, he scored less than 10 points, so those hurt us. When he’s on though, he can rack up strikeouts and has 7+ in 3 of his great games. The Rockies are striking out a ton against RHP right now. As a team, they have the highest strikeout rate in the L14 at 28.5% and their projected starting lineup has a 23.18% strikeout rate. He’s so hit or miss, but at a nice price of just 7k on both sites, I think he’s worth the shot he does have 40+ point upside on FD and 18+ on DK.
Dylan Covey/Jake Junis
These two will square off against each other. Both pitchers are horrible of late and both have over a .370 xwOBA against them in the last 45 days. They both get hit hard with over 87 mph aEV and neither have much strikeout upside. The main reason I think we can take a shot at these two is that they are so cheap and both offenses have been terrible. The Royals and White Sox both have a 22% strikeout rate vs RHP in the L14. Both teams starting lineups have high strikeout rates (both over 22%), and near or below average xwOBA. If I had to pick one over the other, it would be Covey as he is at home and the Royals projected lineup looks a bit weaker than the White Sox.
MAIN SLATE RANKINGS (ALL GPP OPTIONS TODAY)
- Rich Hill
- Luke Weaver
- Kyle Freeland
- Dylan Covey
- Jake Junis
QUICK PICK ON FANDUEL PITCHING TIER RANKS
TIER 1: Hill, Freeland, Sanchez
2: Anderson, Hamels, Tropeano, Kingham (weather issues in PIT)
3: Weaver, Covey, Junis, Lopez, Glasnow
Good Luck Everyone!
