Welcome to the August 14th Edition of Painting the Black, an MLB Pitching Breakdown for Fanduel and DraftKings
In case you all didn’t know, my name is Matt, mdellagnese14 on twitter. I am currently a student at Springfield College with a love and passion for sports, mainly baseball.
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I am mostly a Fanduel player, so the content in my articles will be for geared mainly towards Fanduel. However, I will include pricing from all both sites (Fanduel and Draftkings) Some plays may be better off for the two pitcher sites and I will mention that when needed about a pitcher.
Pitching is one of the most, if not the most important position in your MLB lineups and selecting the right one will help you tremendously. Go check out the MLB Pitching Strategy article to get my thought process on picking these pitchers each slate!
NOTE: most of the stats I used are from a 14-game sample to the handiness of pitchers. If I reference season numbers, I will mention that!
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Main Slate
J.A. Happ (8.8k FD) (9.5k DK) vs TB
Normally I don’t like picking on the Rays, but Happ comes into this game in good form since coming over to the Yankees. He was better outside of Toronto and it has shown so far that he can pitch in Yankee Stadium. In two starts since coming to New York, Happ has gone 6 innings in both outings with 9 strikeouts in his last start against Texas. The Rays come into this game with a .301 xwOBA against LHP in their L14 days and a 23.7% strikeout rate. Happ has been amazing this year with both the Jays and the Yankees with a 27% strikeout rate and 7% walk rate. Happ has allowed a .309 xwOBA this season and a nice 30.7% Hard%. His SIERA is lower than the league average at just 3.53 and he gets a solid 43% groundball rate. The Rays don’t have a ton of history against him, but 4 guys do have more than 10 at-bats against him. He’s allowed a .221 average with a 23.3% strikeout rate and .277 wOBA. Normally, I’d be off pitchers of late against the Rays, but Happ has been able to limit damage and has been good at home for the Yankees.
Patrick Corbin (10.4k FD) (11.9k DK) @ TEX
Again, don’t like picking on the Rangers lately, but having a lefty face them makes me like him. Since Corbin is a lefty, he can limit the damage of Gallo, Odor, and Choo. Corbin has been able to shut down offenses this year and has been able to go deep into games for the Diamondbacks. Texas isn’t the same against LHP as they are against RHP. I think what they did last night against Greinke could keep Corbin’s ownership a bit lower. Coming into this game, they have a .307 xwOBA against LHP, with a 24% strikeout rate. Corbin has actually been better against RHH this season allowing just a .244 wOBA and has a 31.1% strikeout rate against them. Corbin doesn’t have bad numbers against either side of the plate. He doesn’t allow many home runs at all and he limits his walks. Coming into this start, Corbin has a career-high 31% strikeout rate with a low 6% walk rate. His SIERA is 2.89, which is one of the best on the slate tonight. Groundball pitchers usually get hit harder, because grounders are usually hit harder, and he has a 49% groundball rate this year. People get scared of the Rangers, but I like this matchup for Corbin tonight.
Below are our top 5 pitchers by DFSA Grade. You can see some of their stats below. I’ll tell you that the top guy is in this article, along with the 3rd guy and a couple others are in the VIP article, where you can find HERE
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James Paxton (9.8k FD) (11.1k DK) @ OAK
The A’s have since cooled off a bit, and Paxton has been very good lately. Just so happens that he is our highest rated starter on tonight’s slate with a DFSA Grade of 98.5. Solidifying him as a play for me tonight and one of my favorite options. People are afraid to attack Oakland, but Paxton is someone who can shut them down. He’s showing a career-high 31.4% strikeout rate and has a WHIP just over 1.00 with a SIERA of 3.04. Paxton is fairly split neutral but has a career-high 13.8% swinging strike rate on the year. Factor in that he’s allowed just a .294 xwOBA this year and his ability to rack up strikeouts makes him an elite play. He’s only faced Oakland once this year, and all he did was go 7 innings with 16 strikeouts, good for 73 fanduel points! Absolutely absurd. A repeat performance is a bit much to ask, but he has shown what he can do since then with various 50+ point games. Paxton is elite value on FD under 10k compared to some of the guys priced above him. In 84 at-bats, the A’s have just a .214 batting average, .285 wOBA, and a crazy high 40% strikeout rate. Look for Paxton to rack up a ton of strikeouts tonight. Even with all their power, they still have a 21.7% strikeout rate vs LHP in their L14. Going deep into games is no problem for him either, as he averages 6 innings a start, and throws over 100 pitches 60% of the time. An elite play in all formats and could go overlooked with some of the guys above him.
Justin Verlander (11.2k FD) (12.6k DK) vs COL
People will likely be off Verlander after his HORRIBLE start last time out. Well, he gets to face the Rockies, and they haven’t been as good on the road as they are at home. On the road in the last 14 days against RHP, they have a .297 xwOBA with a 25.5% strikeout rate, .218 average, and 81 wRC+. Verlander has been better away from Houston, but I still think his ownership is down after his last start. Despite allowing a worse average and wOBA at home, he still has a 4.2% higher strikeout rate at home and cuts his walk rate in half. Before that start, he struck out 14 Dodgers, 7 Rangers, and 11 Angels. Those teams don’t strikeout that much either lately. We have seen Verlander top 60 points a few times this year and it’s not impossible for him. He also comes into this start with a very low .249 xwOBA with over a 30% strikeout rate this season. The Rockies don’t have a ton of at-bats against him, but they are hitting .197 with a 28.7% strikeout rate. Verlander will come back with a vengeance this start and it wouldn’t surprise me if he strikes out 10+ hitters tonight.
MAIN SLATE RANKINGS
- James Paxton (all formats)
- Justin Verlander (all formats)
- Patrick Corbin (all formats)
- J.A. Happ (lean GPP)
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QUICK PICK ON FANDUEL PITCHING TIER RANKS
TIER 1: Paxton, Verlander, Corbin, Kluber
2: Happ, Sanchez, Porcello, Wood, Taillon
3: Borucki, Marquez, Richards, Barria, Fiers
4: Gant, Cashner, Giolito, Odorizzi
Good Luck Everyone!
