Hello everyone, and welcome back to the MLB cash academy at the DFS Army! I go by nillyJay in the DFS Army where I coach and contribute content for MLB, NASCAR, and all things cash games related (such as proper bankroll management and cash ladders). You can find me on Twitter or in our Slack channels @nillyJay.
The winners keep coming! Congrats to CBombM11 (again!), laptopqb, fire34medic, DFS_GAL (who you can follow on Twitter right here), and NYSportsfan24 who just keeps grinding away at those Tiers cash games.
If you hadn’t noticed, we’ve had a lot of success with the DraftKings Showdown slates. A big part of that is thanks to our Showdown specialist 14adotwalsh (find him on Twitter right here), who puts out VIP-only articles covering these games. Just another perk of being in the DFS Army!
The basics
Please refer to the original article here if you’re unfamiliar with any of the stats or terminology used in the notes below. NEW! If you want to read more about my carnage rating system, you can do so here.
Yesterday’s results
Two of the value plays didn’t work out, but solid pitching and some other good hitters led us to some cash game green anyway. Another big slate awaits us today, so let’s dive right in!
Cash players – 8/4/2018
James Paxton (SEA P: $9,500 FD | $12,900 DK) – I know Kluber is on the mound today, but I’d rather pay up for Paxton’s consistency (and easier matchup) in cash games. To start, he’s got a very nice -225 moneyline and 2.93 implied runs from Vegas. He has the lowest carnage rating on the slate at 2.32, and his combined .269 wOBA / 544 KSCORE are both the second best for the day. Nobody from Toronto has managed to get more than two hits against him, and when he faced them earlier this year he scored a massive 58 FD and 46.45 DK. I don’t expect him to do quite that well again, but he shouldn’t have much trouble returning a lot of value today.
Edwin Jackson (OAK P: $6,800 FD | $6,400 DK) – Perhaps the chalk value pitcher today, Jackson gets a nice matchup today and has plenty of love from Vegas with a -174 moneyline and 3.65 implied runs. Detroit had a decent matchup yesterday and totally bombed, and today they get a much harder one. Jackson has only allowed .290 wOBA and .156 ISO to righties, and Detroit is full of them. Speaking of which, they’re not hitting righties very well at all right now either; their projected lineup averages .269 wOBA and .152 ISO in this matchup (their xwOBA averages are just as low, which tells me they aren’t even making good contact). Jackson faced them in his debut this year and scored 40 FD and 21.9 DK, and he’s got a good shot at getting close to that again today.
Jurickson Profar (TEX 3B/SS: $3,300 FD | $4,500 DK) – Pretty much the entire Texas roster is in play today, but I’ll start with Profar who got to rest yesterday. Like the rest of the team, his numbers against righties are super high; he’s putting up .528 wOBA and .500 ISO while only striking out 16.28% of the time. Bundy has really struggled lately, allowing .391 wOBA and .267 ISO to the left side of the plate over his last five starts, and is only striking out 12.9% of his batters. He also carries a massive 8.36 carnage rating, easily the worst on the slate today. You can pair him up with….well, pretty much anybody. Just don’t get too carried away, as we don’t need full stacks to win cash games!
Like what you see here, but wish you could quickly find more batters in good spots like these ones are? I upload a list of every batter that meets the requirements I’m looking for, every single day, and today’s list has a whopping 57 batters on it. Everybody gets a few here, but our VIPs get the rest! That list also has a breakdown of every tier for the DraftKings Tiers slates.
Danny Valencia (BAL OF: $2,300 FD | $3,800 DK) – On the other side of that game, several Baltimore players have a pretty good matchup today against Minor, who is allowing .372 wOBA and .322 ISO to righties with a low 16.7% strikeout rate. Valencia makes a great value play here, and he’s had fantasy production in 9 of his last 10 games and is hitting .660 wOBA against lefties. He’s also got a 7.04 carnage rating, second only to Bundy. If you want to run a mini cash stack here, look at either Trumbo, Beckham, Mancini, or Rickard to go with him. Again, don’t go nuts stacking this game, take a few good pieces and move on to the other good choices!
Jonathan Lucroy (OAK C: $2,400 FD | $3,300 DK) – His wOBA/ISO numbers aren’t exactly where I’d want them in this matchup, but he has other things going for him that I can live with for how cheap he is. For starters, he’s 3 for 5 with a home run against Zimmerman and he’s posted fantasy scores in 11 of his last 12 games. For his price, that’s as solid of a floor as I need for basic cash game use.
Trea Turner (WAS SS: $4,400 FD | $5,500 DK) – Turner has recovered from his mid-season slump and is back to his righty-smashing ways. He’s posted .390 wOBA and .229 ISO against them over the last couple of weeks and gets to face a right-handed pitcher that we all love to pick on. Harvey is allowing .465 wOBA and .343 ISO to righties and I don’t see things ending well for him today. The Nationals have a big 5.62 implied total, so feel free to grab another bat from here if you want to run a mini stack here. Harper, Soto, Murphy, and Eaton all make good candidates.
And that’s going to do it for today! Be sure to check out the rest of our MLB content today, as well as EricF’s MMA article, and keep in mind that NFL season is fast approaching. Of course, with that comes an increase in our monthly rates, so now is a great time to get on board so you don’t have to pay the higher prices later. Maybe you’ll be our next big winner! Just remember to use promo code NILLY to get that 10% discount for the life of your active membership. Until then, good luck today!
