Welcome to the July 6^th Edition of Painting the Black, an MLB Pitching Breakdown for Fanduel, DraftKings, and Fantasydraft!

In case you all didn’t know, my name is Matt, mdellagnese14 on twitter. I am currently a student at Springfield College with a love and passion for sports, mainly baseball.

I was brought to the DFS Army to write pitching articles for all members of the DFSArmy! If you are not a member, join the DFSArmy and use promo code “DFSMATT” to get 10% off your subscription!

I am mostly a Fanduel player, so the content in my articles will be for geared mainly towards Fanduel. However, I will include pricing from all three sites (Fanduel, Draftkings, FantasyDraft). Some plays may be better off for the two pitcher sites and I will mention that when needed about a pitcher.

Pitching is one of the most, if not the most important position in your MLB lineups and selecting the right one will help you tremendously. Go check out the MLB Pitching Strategy article to get my thought process on picking these pitchers each slate!

NOTE: most of the stats I used are from a 14-game sample to the handiness of pitchers. If I reference season numbers, I will mention that!

ALWAYS PAY ATTENTION TO THE WEATHER FROM OUR VERY OWN @DFSWEATHER IN SLACK!!!

Any updates will be given in our VIP Slack Channel! <– click here to see our pricing to get the whole VIP experience!

If you find yourself thinking, “what do some of these stats mean?” Check out my new definitions article HERE. I explain what each stat I use mean, and reasons why I use those stats in my articles!

Yesterday’s Results

1. Justin Verlander (49 FD) (29.35 DK)
2. Marco Gonzales (46 FD) (25.3 DK)
3. Luke Weaver (49 FD) (30.8 DK)
4. Max Fried (0 FD) (-3.45 DK)
5. Shelby Miller (27 FD) (15.05 DK)
6. Pablo Lopez (9 FD) (3.05 DK)

Overall it was not a bad night for results. If you guys and gals used any of the top 3 you should have seen yourself in pretty good shape last night. It was a small and bad pitching slate last night, tonight is much better! Let’s get to it!

Main Slate

Nick Pivetta (8.1k FD) (8.4k DK) (16.4k FD2) @ PIT

Pivetta has horrible home/road splits this season, but he is a big boom or bust pitcher this season. He will be happy to not have to face the Nationals for a 4^th straight time in this one. He gets a nice ballpark upgrade pitching at PNC Park. The Pirates are among one of the worst teams in the MLB right now. If you take a look at our amazing lineups page, this is the projected starting lineup numbers for the Pirates in their L14 vs RHP.

They are not striking out a ton, but as you see, they aren’t doing that much of anything else either as their xwOBA is just .290. As a team as a whole, they have a 23% K rate in their L14 vs RHP and have the 3^rd lowest wRC+ at 61. Their wOBA sits at .259 which also ranks near the bottom of the MLB in that span. They tossed out some bad lineups last series, so we need to see who they throw out there tonight. Pivetta does have a great 28% K rate on the season and a 3.38 SIERA. Pivetta is risky but has great upside in this matchup tonight for tournaments.

Jacob deGrom (12k FD) (13k DK) (25k FD2) vs TB

deGrom is the first of our studs on this slate tonight and has one of the best matchups on the board. The Rays have been awful of late and have a 25% K rate against RHP in their L14, with virtually no power. deGrom is having a career year this year and it’s a shame he’s on an awful team. He has a 31.5% K rate with just a 6.6% walk rate this season. He isn’t getting hit that hard and has a wonderful SIERA of 2.86 along with a career-high 15.5% SwStr%. Hitters are not making much contact against him and the Rays have not been that good either. The best hitter for them lately has been Wilson Ramos, but the rest of their team is shaky. deGrom is one of the best options tonight for all formats.

Let’s take a moment to congratulate DFS Army members on some big wins over the last week! YOU can do this too with the information here at the DFS Army. You must sign up to become a member though! Did you know using the code “DFSMATT” can unlock a discount for you? Well, it can! Sign up today!

Lance McCullers (11.3k FD) (11.9k DK) (23.3k FD2) vs CWS

I’m not sure McCullers is worth this high price tag, but we cannot ignore how good he has been. He has 4 straight 40+ point fanduel games and his strikeouts have been up in his last 3 starts as well. The White Sox have not been as bad lately, but they still are striking out a ton. McCullers has looked better at home this year as he has allowed a .249 wOBA at home compared to .314 on the road. I’m surprised to see he’s been a reverse splits pitcher this year, and the White Sox are projected to throw out 4 lefties tonight. On our lineups page, that projected lineup has a 25.76% strikeout rate with a .313 xwOBA. They have a few guys running hot, but they still are prone to strikeouts. Chicago has 5 guys that have higher than a 25% strikeout rate over the last 2 weeks to RHP too. McCullers is expensive, but the spot is great for him tonight.

Chris Sale (12.5k FD) (14k DK) (27.4k FD2) @ KC

WOW, the pricing on Sale tonight is crazy! deGrom is $500 cheaper on fanduel, 1k on DK, and 2.4k on FD2. Some can argue that deGrom has the better matchup, and I agree a little on that one. I think it could make Sale lower owned, which will lead me to love Sale even more. The Royals have been brutal lately, and even worse to LHP. They have a 25% K rate against LHP in their L14 and the 4^th worst wRC+ in the league. They also have just a .264 wOBA and .093 ISO. Sale is an elite pitcher and has a 36% K rate on the season. He has 5 straight 50+ point fanduel games, and his strikeout upside is elite in any given matchup. The issue with him, is the Red Sox seem to never give him run support. Despite that, he still has wins in 3 of his last 4 starts and has a total of 54 strikeouts in his last 4 starts. Good luck Royals tonight, Sale is going to rip apart your lineup.

Sonny Gray (7.7k FD) (6.8k DK) (13.8k FD2) @ TOR

Before you freak out at me, I am a Yankee fan, and I’ve watched a lot of Gray’s starts this year. He simply cannot pitch at Yankee Stadium but has had very good starts on the road. Last time out against the Jays he was amazing and went 8 innings with 8 strikeouts, good for 52 fanduel points. The Jays have not been the best lately as they do have a bunch of red on our lineups page.

Gray will be less than 5% owned across the board tonight because everyone thinks he sucks. Well, he does, in Yankee Stadium. On the road, he is a much different pitcher. He allows just a .226 average with a .275 wOBA and has only given up 2 HR on the road all season. His strikeout rate increases 10% on the road and he walks 7% fewer hitters. I can keep throwing numbers at you, but I won’t. Trust me, Gray is a much better pitcher on the road. Toronto can be dangerous, but in Rogers Centre, this season he has 12 innings pitched, with 16 strikeouts and allowing just a .214 average. I love Gray in tournaments tonight.

Lance Lynn (7.3k FD) (6.4k DK) (13.1k FD2) vs BAL

Lance Lynn is another guy who is never a fun roster, but this matchup is amazing for him. I’m not too interested in any pitchers cheaper than him tonight, and for tournaments, he and Gray could do some work as a pair. He is the opposite of Gray splits wise, meaning he is much better at home this year. Baltimore is a team we have been picking on all year, but they have been a little bit better lately. Their projected lineup still has a 25.23% K rate over the L14 though. Their wOBA is lower than their expected wOBA, but they still can put up some goose eggs any time around. Lynn has allowed almost a .100 less wOBA at home this year and .101 lower average. Lynn has a 22.2% K rate this year but a quite high walk rate that could hurt him. A lot of people will look to his last start and not even look at him a second time tonight, but I think we can toss that one out because again, he sucks on the road. GPP only tonight, but he has winning upside.

Mike Foltynewicz (8.8k FD) (10.6k DK) (20.7k FD2) @ MIL

I won’t be touching Folty in cash games tonight, but he makes for an interesting GPP play. I think a lot of people may go a little cheaper for Peralta, but I’m hopping off that train tonight as he has a very tough matchup against the Braves. Folty has shown elite upside this year with 12 starts of 30+ fanduel points and even topped 70 in a start this year. The thing that worries me is since his complete game, he has failed to reach 6 innings in his last 4 starts. Despite that, he still has gotten decent fantasy games. His walks have been a little high, which hurt his value on DK/FD2, but on fanduel, it has been fine. He has a 29.5% K rate on the season and is allowing just a .184 batting average against. Despite his high walk rate (11%), he has just a 1.11 WHIP and 3.67 SIERA. The Brewers as a team have had a 28% strikeout rate in the L14, but their projected lineup does not show that bad. I still think Folty has amazing upside tonight, and people will likely pass right over him tonight.

Dereck Rodriguez (8.6k FD) (7.7k DK) (15.6k FD2) vs STL

I have been going back and forth on him all morning, but I do like what he has shown. Some of his advanced stats I hate, like his 41% hard contact rate and over 1.3 WHIP this season, but his fantasy production has still been amazing. He has recorded 4 straight 30+ fanduel point games, and coming off back to back 40+ point games. He also has back to back 20 point DraftKings games too. he has seen a big price increase since his start against the Marlins, but rightfully so. For his price, I would love another 30+ point game. The Cards are starting to hit the ball better of late, but pitching at home should be able to help Rodriguez out tonight. The thing I do love is that he has gone 6+ innings in 4 of his 7 starts this season. He is sitting around a strikeout per inning and has looked a bit better at home so far. The Cardinals blew up Cueto last night, and they are prone to disappearing in starts. The Giants have a much better matchup tonight against Gant than they had last night against Weaver. I think he can produce another great start here tonight. Tournaments only though.

MAIN SLATE RANKINGS

1. Chris Sale (all formats)
2. Jacob deGrom (all formats)
3. Lance McCullers (all formats)
4. Mike Foltynewicz (lean GPP)
5. Sonny Gray (GPP)
6. Nick Pivetta (GPP)
7. Lance Lynn (GPP)
8. Dereck Rodriguez (GPP)