Welcome to the July 3rd Edition of Painting the Black, an MLB Pitching Breakdown for Fanduel, DraftKings, and Fantasydraft!
In case you all didn’t know, my name is Matt, mdellagnese14 on twitter. I am currently a student at Springfield College with a love and passion for sports, mainly baseball.
I was brought to the DFS Army to write pitching articles for all members of the DFSArmy! If you are not a member, join the DFSArmy and use promo code “DFSMATT” to get 10% off your subscription!
I am mostly a Fanduel player, so the content in my articles will be for geared mainly towards Fanduel. However, I will include pricing from all three sites (Fanduel, Draftkings, FantasyDraft). Some plays may be better off for the two pitcher sites and I will mention that when needed about a pitcher.
Pitching is one of the most, if not the most important position in your MLB lineups and selecting the right one will help you tremendously. Go check out the MLB Pitching Strategy article to get my thought process on picking these pitchers each slate!
NOTE: most of the stats I used are from a 14-game sample to the handiness of pitchers. If I reference season numbers, I will mention that!
ALWAYS PAY ATTENTION TO THE WEATHER FROM OUR VERY OWN @DFSWEATHER IN SLACK!!!
Any updates will be given in our VIP Slack Channel! <– click here to see our pricing to get the whole VIP experience!
If you find yourself thinking, “what do some of these stats mean?” Check out my new definitions article HERE. I explain what each stat I use mean, and reasons why I use those stats in my articles!
BULLPEN REPORTS
Main Slate
Zach Eflin (9.1k FD) (9.9k DK) (19.4k FD2) vs BAL
I don’t care that Baltimore has been better of late, I will still pick on them when a high strikeout pitcher pitches against them. Over the L14 the Orioles are still striking out at a 23.5% clip, but about average in other advanced categories. Eflin has looked really good in starts this year and has 5 straight starts with 30+ fanduel points. He comes into this start with a 24.5% K rate and just 6% walk rate. He’s been getting 9 K/9 and allowing just a 1.13 WHIP with a 3.67 SIERA. Eflin has been pretty solid for the season and Baltimore still does not scare me at all. They normally toss out a ton of righties, and Eflin has been better against them this season and has been very good at home too. His home/road advanced splits are pretty insane. He has a 30.7% K rate at home compared to 19.7% on the road, he also has a 2.88 xFIP at home, with a 4.38 on the road.
Shane Bieber (8.2k FD) (9.6k DK) (18.8k FD2) @ KC
Look who we have here, a pitcher against the Royals. They are the worst team in MLB against RHP lately and are not improving over their L14 spans. They have the worst wRC+ in the MLB at 34, with a .222 wOBA, .167 average, and .106 ISO, along with a 26% K rate which is up compared to their yearly average. Bieber has been simply amazing since coming up and has 3 straight 40+ fanduel point games. In just his 4 starts, he has a 26.2% K rate with a very low 3.9% walk rate. The young kid comes in with a wonderful 3.02 SIERA and a 51.4% groundball rate. His two starts at home have been very good and he’s shown up 9 strikeout upside so far. This kid is a great option tonight against the Royals. Also, to prove my point on him, he’s our top-rated pitcher in the RS this evening.
Zack Greinke (10.1k FD) (10.9k DK) (21.5k FD2) vs STL
Greinke has been pretty decent all season and has been amazing at home since being on the Diamondbacks. This season he has allowed a .268 wOBA at home with a 2.40 ERA. Zack has a great 25.7% strikeout rate on the year and still just a 4.5% walk rate. He has always been hit pretty hard, but it has not hurt him all that much this season. He is coming off two great road starts where he scored 49 fanduel points in both and got 2 wins. There was a stretch where he struggled, but that always happens and he seems to have bounced back. As we have followed all season, and Chop can back be on his Cardinals, they can put up goose eggs any game. They have dangerous hitters, but still have a 23.4% K rate in their L14. Luckily for Greinke, the Cards do not have a ton of lefties and he has been able to strike out 4% more RHH than LHH. Between him and Kershaw he will likely garner more ownership tonight because he is healthier. He’s good for all formats tonight.
Chris Bassitt (7k FD) (6.3k DK) (12.8k FD2) vs SD
I’m not in love with this pitching slate at all tonight. Bassitt comes into this game against the Padres with a couple good starts and a couple bad. His good starts, he was able to get us 40 and 43 fanduel points, while striking out 11 in 13 innings. He isn’t a big strikeout guy and is normally a little less than a strikeout per inning. He has looked good though in 22.1 innings this year. He’s allowed just a .255 wOBA with just a .205 batting average. Bassitt has been able to get more strikeouts to lefties this year (+4.5%) than righties. Looking at his xFIP and SIERA, they are bad, but pitching is bad on this slate and I think he’s work a GPP shot tonight. San Diego comes into this game with a 25.2% K rate and 78 wRC+ with a .280 wOBA to RHP in their L14 and pitching in Oakland is a nice big park for Bassitt. He popped up on the research station today and has an 81 DFSA Grade. I think he’s worth the shot in tournaments tonight.
Wade Leblanc (6.4k FD) (7.1k DK) (13.5k FD2) vs LAA
This here is another strictly GPP play tonight for me. I don’t pick on the Angels much, but I am interested him. His home/road splits favor being at home, and he’s at home tonight. He is not a pretty play, but is allowing a .275 wOBA at home and has actually been a bit better against RHH this year so far. Los Angeles has been kind of middle of the pack lately against LHP with a 20% K rate and 86 wRC+ with a .283 wOBA. He faced them at the beginning of June and pitched a good game going 5 innings with 5 strikeouts, good for 30 fanduel points. It is a big risk as the Angels can bust out at any time, but they have been “meh” lately. This is a deep GPP play only tonight though.
Clayton Kershaw (10.6k FD) (12k DK) (23k FD2) vs PIT
I have not seen much on pitch counts for him tonight, I am assuming he will throw 80ish after going 68 last start. The unknown makes him very risky for cash games, but he’s still Kershaw. The Pirates have not been that good against LHP of late and rank in the bottom 10 in wRC+ with a 24% strikeout rate and very low 4% walk rate. They have some guys who can hit lefties. Kershaw has not been the best this year, and likely because he hasn’t been healthy all year. In just 68 pitches last start he was able to get 5 innings and have 6 strikeouts against the cubs good for 30 fanduel points. Obviously, at his price, we want him to be able to go deeper into the game and scored 40+ fanduel points. I think we can take some shots at him, but he’s risky of cash games.
MAIN SLATE RANKINGS
- Shane Bieber (all formats)
- Zack Greinke (all formats)
- Zach Eflin (all formats)
- Clayton Kershaw (GPP, this low because of his pitch count)
- Chris Bassitt (GPP)
- Wade LeBlanc (GPP)
