Welcome to the July 27th Edition of Painting the Black, an MLB Pitching Breakdown for Fanduel, DraftKings, and Fantasydraft!
In case you all didn’t know, my name is Matt, mdellagnese14 on twitter. I am currently a student at Springfield College with a love and passion for sports, mainly baseball.
I was brought to the DFS Army to write pitching articles for all members of the DFSArmy! If you are not a member, join the DFSArmy and use promo code “DFSMATT” to get 10% off your subscription!
I am mostly a Fanduel player, so the content in my articles will be for geared mainly towards Fanduel. However, I will include pricing from all three sites (Fanduel, Draftkings, FantasyDraft). Some plays may be better off for the two pitcher sites and I will mention that when needed about a pitcher.
Pitching is one of the most, if not the most important position in your MLB lineups and selecting the right one will help you tremendously. Go check out the MLB Pitching Strategy article to get my thought process on picking these pitchers each slate!
NOTE: most of the stats I used are from a 14-game sample to the handiness of pitchers. If I reference season numbers, I will mention that!
ALWAYS PAY ATTENTION TO THE WEATHER FROM OUR VERY OWN @DFSWEATHER IN SLACK!!!
Any updates will be given in our VIP Slack Channel! <– click here to see our pricing to get the whole VIP experience!
If you find yourself thinking, “what do some of these stats mean?” Check out my new definitions article HERE. I explain what each stat I use mean, and reasons why I use those stats in my articles!
BULLPEN REPORTS
Main Slate
Chris Archer (9k FD) (9.5k DK) @ BAL
We have to wait and see what happens here with Archer. I can see him getting traded at any time now. Baltimore though is a team we always pick on and will continue to pick on until they can show they are a good offense. Over their L14 vs RHP, they have the 9th highest strikeout rate at 24.3%. Archer has had his ups and downs this year, but I’m sure he knows he is on the trade block, so teams are going to be watching him. He comes into this game with a solid 25.6% strikeout rate and a 3.65 SIERA. He normally gets hit rather hard, but Baltimore is an offense that doesn’t scare me. Below is their projected starting lineup stats from our very own Lineups Page
Archer has 50+ point upside, and can strikeout 7+ in this matchup tonight. In 182 career at-bats against him, they have a 25.2% strikeout rate.
Chris Sale (12.8k FD) (13.5k DK) vs MIN
Sale is like no other and has an amazing matchup with the Twins. As seen yesterday, the Twins have been absolutely horrible against LHP, and that hasn’t changed. Here is their projected lineup from our amazing lineups page again.
They look pretty bad lately, and well Chris Sale is Chris Sale. He’s amazing and having an amazing season. He has 9 starts with more than 10 strikeouts, and before his last start he rolled off 5 in a row with 11+. He’s expensive, but 100% worth the price. He’s scored more than 50 fanduel points in 11 starts this season and has been amazing of late scoring 55 or more in 6 of his last 8 starts. Strikeouts are never an issue with Sale as he has a 37.5% strikeout rate, which is actually the best of his career. He’s having a Cy Young type year with the Sox this year and I don’t see anything really changing tonight against the Twins. He doesn’t get hit hard, and the Twins offense have a .253 career average against him over 178 at-bats with a 30.89% strikeout rate. I see him getting back to 10+ strikeouts tonight and can easily score 50+ fanduel points and 30+ DraftKings points.
Did you know that if you become a DFS Army member you get the lineups page EVERYDAY with your membership? It’s amazing and helps out all of our members.
Membership fees start at $39.99/month, but with my code “DFSMATT” you can get that knocked down to $35/month and you get ALL SPORTS. PGA, MLB, NFL, MMA, WNBA, NBA, NASCAR. You name it, we got it! Join TODAYand see what DFS Army is all about!
Above is the same DFS Army member that has won many tournaments before. Earlier this season, @dradt said: “I usually try to set a lineup from my own research before turning to the articles and slack chat for confirmation if I’m on the right track or to pick up on something I have missed. I have really gotten a lot out of Chop, CeeGee, and MDell’s articles that have changed the way I put together a lineup. The army, in general, has made me better just through the articles and research station as it opened my eyes to things I never considered before….”
As a result, @dradt has won over $80,000 in the last 3 months. He has won some DFS Army Swag as well and cemented his spot on the DFS ARMY wall of wins!
Zack Greinke (11k FD) (10.7k DK) @ SD
Greinke is very expensive, and I think it will cause him to be lower owned tonight, as people could just pay the little more for Max, and find the money for Sale. The Zack Attack was absolutely amazing in his last start against the Rockies, striking out 13 hitters in 8 innings, IN Coors. Who said pitchers all suck at Coors Field?! His price did jump quite a bit, but that will happen after a 54 and 70 point fanduel performances. Greinke has not walked many hitters all season (1.67 BB/9) which comes to a 4.6% BB rate. His WHIP is just 1.06, which means he isn’t allowing many hitters on base, making him a great play for DK tonight. When picking pitchers on DraftKings, we want pitchers who don’t allow baserunners because baserunners = losing points. We obviously don’t want to lose points. He has a great 26.2% strikeout rate, and the matchup couldn’t get any better. San Diego has a 23.3% strikeout rate in the L14 vs RHP, hitting just .234, with a wOBA of .279, and wRC+ of 75.
Carlos Carrasco (10k FD) (11.4k DK) @ DET
The Tigers are becoming just like the Orioles. We LOVE to pick on them. I like Carrasco a bit more than Scherzer tonight. Scherzer has rough history against the Marlins and Carrasco is facing the Tigers who are absolutely horrible right now. They come into this game with a 28.4% strikeout rate against RHP and are hitting just .164. They have one of the worst wRC+’s I have seen this year at just 43 and their wOBA is awful at .237. Not to mention, their projected lineup has an xwOBA of just .263 vs RHP in their L14 days. Carrasco was great in his last start against the Rangers and has done well vs DET this year too. He did struggle against them the last start in DET, but I’m not worried at all. They don’t hit for much power against him, and the guys with over 10 at-bats in their career against him have either been awful (Castellanos a career .225 hitter, V-Mart is a .186, James McCann is .143) or they are just not that good overall (Iglesias, who actually has a .355 average against him over his career in 31 at-bats). Carrasco has shown us 10+ strikeout upside this year and does come into this game with a great 27% strikeout rate and just a 5.4% walk rate. The Tigers don’t scare me one bit and I can see Carrasco having a 40+ fanduel point game here tonight. Looking below, you can see how bad the Tigers projected lineup looks tonight. If you are like me, and a visual learner, these should help a lot!
Clayton Kershaw (10.5k FD) (12.8k DK) @ ATL
I was not on Kershaw at first, but my thoughts on him have changed after seeing what Rich Hill has done against the Braves tonight. Coming into this start, the Braves projected lineup has just a .316 xwOBA against LHP. Even though they have not struck out a ton, Hill was still able to get 8 strikeouts in 7 innings against them last night in a great win. The Dodgers have been playing absolutely out of their minds of late, and that will help Kershaw as they have a good matchup here tonight too. Folty has been great this year, but the Dodgers are one of the hottest teams in baseball and don’t seem like they are slowing down. Kershaw has been better lately going 6 innings in his last 4 starts. I still wish his strikeouts were a bit higher, but he still has a 25% strikeout rate on the season. The best thing right now though is he appears to be back and healthy. The Braves are hitting a slow part of their season, and I think we need to take advantage of that. Kershaw is still an ace and can pop off a 60 point game at any time. He comes at a big discount from Sale, and tonight, I believe he has just as good upside as him. The top tier pitching tonight is very good, and I think we spend up on pitching tonight, especially on Fanduel.
Dallas Keuchel (9.5k FD) (9.1k DK) vs TEX
Texas has been pretty hot of late, but Keuchel has been amazing against them at home this season. Against LHP though, the Rangers have been on fire. BUT, they also have the 6th highest strikeout rate in the MLB at 26.4%. They have the most BvP against any pitcher that I have seen nearly all season with 321 at-bats. That is a TON of history. They have a career .243 average with a 21.8% strikeout rate. That isn’t that good, but this year at home against them he has been lights out. He scored a 55 fanduel point game against them at home and his last road start against them he put up 46 fanduel points. He’s been shaky against them this year with a couple good and couple bad starts, but I love him for tournaments tonight. He’s riding a hot hand, winning his last 4 starts never scoring less than 34 fanduel points. Dallas normally will hover around 6-7 strikeouts per start, and I’m fine with that. He also has the chance at an elevated strikeout number the way the Rangers have been striking out against LHP lately.
The Rangers area playing much higher than they should be right now as indicated by their xwOBA and wOBA differences. I think tonight is the night they start to cool off and Keuchel pitches a gem.
*** I have a couple of other tournament plays off these main ones tonight. If you want to find out, you’ll have to sign up today!
MAIN SLATE RANKINGS
- You thought I was going to give all the good away for free? You’ll have to sign up HERE and become an official DFS Army member to get all of my goodies in our VIP slack chat! Remember, use code “DFSMATT” to unlock some savings every month!
QUICK PICK ON FANDUEL PITCHING TIER RANKS
TIER 1: Sale, Greinke, Kershaw, Scherzer, Keuchel
2: Carrasco, Heaney, Archer, Foltynewicz, Bumgarner
3: Sabathia, Pivetta, Anderson, Lynn, Lopez
4: LeBlanc, Pablo Lopez, Cashner
Good Luck Everyone!
