Welcome to the July 25th Edition of Painting the Black, an MLB Pitching Breakdown for Fanduel, DraftKings, and Fantasydraft!
In case you all didn’t know, my name is Matt, mdellagnese14 on twitter. I am currently a student at Springfield College with a love and passion for sports, mainly baseball.
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I am mostly a Fanduel player, so the content in my articles will be for geared mainly towards Fanduel. However, I will include pricing from all three sites (Fanduel, Draftkings, FantasyDraft). Some plays may be better off for the two pitcher sites and I will mention that when needed about a pitcher.
Pitching is one of the most, if not the most important position in your MLB lineups and selecting the right one will help you tremendously. Go check out the MLB Pitching Strategy article to get my thought process on picking these pitchers each slate!
NOTE: most of the stats I used are from a 14-game sample to the handiness of pitchers. If I reference season numbers, I will mention that!
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Main Slate
David Price (9k FD) (9.5k DK) @ BAL
Likely the chalk of the main slate tonight, and rightfully so. The Orioles are just awful all around, and now losing Machado makes their lineup a lot less scary. Looking at their projected lineup, they have just a .301 xwOBA and .138 ISO. They also have an average grade of just 60.7 which is on the low end. 5 of their projected starters have a strikeout rate over 22.5%. Price has been up and down this year, but still holds a solid 24% strikeout rate on the year with a SIERA just above average at 3.91. Baltimore has seen Price plenty of times as they have 239 career at-bats against him with a .255 average and .294 wOBA. They do hold a 28.7% strikeout rate against him though which is wonderful. Price is coming off of 2 40 point games where he was able to go 6+ in each of those starts. The other time he faced Baltimore this year (with Machado), he was able to throw a complete game 5 hitter which was good for 55 points. Price, when on can be very good and I don’t see the Orioles being able to light him up.
Edwin Jackson (7.6k FD) (7.7k DK) @ TEX
Normally, it’s not a good idea to pick on Texas at home in the heat, but it’s a small 4 game slate and we need options. Why not pick the pitcher who is pitching against arguably the hottest team in the Majors against an awful pitcher? We should, and the Rangers advanced stats do not look that good. They only have 4 guys over a .300 xwOBA in the L14 vs RHP while the other 5 are under .270. They also have 6 guys with higher than a 20% strikeout rate against RHP too. This game can have some fireworks in it, but Jackson has been solid this year and the A’s are rolling. Jackson has scored at least 30 fanduel points in 3 of his 5 starts this year and had some tough opponents. He has gone 6+ innings in all but 1 start where he went 5.2 innings. Jackson has shown can give us 6 innings any start and I think he has more strikeout upside in the matchup with the Rangers. He has had more than 6 strikeouts in 3 of his 5 starts as well this year. Edwin hasn’t walked many hitters this year (6.6%), and he has a WHIP of just 0.95. Jackson is also allowing just a .186 batting average against, but his BABIP is just .198, so he’s probably getting a tad lucky. On a small slate, we need some options, and I think the A’s give him plenty of run support tonight where if he does halfway good, he can get a win.
Charlie Morton (9.5k FD) (8.8k DK) @ COL
I know, two pitchers in a row in Coors. But it worked last night as Cole only gave up 2 ER and was able to strikeout 9 Rockies hitters. He didn’t get the win, but he still pitched a great game, and for his price 44 was plenty. I see Morton having some success here tonight too. Two of his pitches (sinker and curveball) are the pitches most affected by Coors, but he’s good enough where he should be able to adjust if they aren’t working. The Rockies have just 3 hitters over the league average xwOBA. They have 3 under .300, and have a 23.5% strikeout rate in their L14 vs RHP. Morton comes in with a 31.2% strikeout rate and his 49% groundball rate should help him out in Coors. He also has a lower 28% flyball rate. Normally, he doesn’t get hit too hard and has a good SIERA of 3.29. Morton has only 4 games in Coors field, but he’s only given up 2 home runs, but he has given up A LOT of runs (16 to be exact). This was when he was a different pitcher though, and he’s been much better this year. I do worry about him and his sinker/curveball not working like usual, but I still think he has 40 point upside, just like Cole had last night. Seeing a lot of red on the Rockies side of the lineup page makes me like Morton tonight.
Tyler Skaggs (9.3k FD) (10.2k DK) vs CWS
The White Sox have been a bit better against LHP than RHP this year, but their numbers still aren’t that good. They have a 26.8% strikeout rate as a team and just an 82 wRC+. Skaggs has been fairly good for most of this season and shown us 50 point upside (30 on DK). He has a great matchup tonight against the White Sox too. Skaggs has almost a 25% strikeout rate this season and gets 47.7% groundballs. The Angels have a wonderful matchup against James Shields, so the win for Skaggs should be a bit easier to come by. Despite being almost all righties, Chicago’s projected lineup has just a .248 xwOBA, .083 ISO, and a very high 25.36% strikeout rate. They have the lowest average DFSA Grade. For people who like visuals, take a quick look at the White Sox projected lineup.
MAIN SLATE RANKINGS
- Tyler Skaggs (all formats)
- David Price (all formats)
- Charlie Morton (GPP)
- Edwin Jackson (GPP ONLY)
QUICK PICK ON FANDUEL PITCHING TIER RANKS
TIER 1: Skaggs, Price, Morton
2: Jackson, Gray, Leake
3: Bundy, Gaviglio, Holland
Good Luck Everyone!
