Welcome to the July 24^th Edition of Painting the Black, an MLB Pitching Breakdown for Fanduel, DraftKings, and Fantasydraft!

In case you all didn’t know, my name is Matt, mdellagnese14 on twitter. I am currently a student at Springfield College with a love and passion for sports, mainly baseball.

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I am mostly a Fanduel player, so the content in my articles will be for geared mainly towards Fanduel. However, I will include pricing from all three sites (Fanduel, Draftkings, FantasyDraft). Some plays may be better off for the two pitcher sites and I will mention that when needed about a pitcher.

Pitching is one of the most, if not the most important position in your MLB lineups and selecting the right one will help you tremendously. Go check out the MLB Pitching Strategy article to get my thought process on picking these pitchers each slate!

NOTE: most of the stats I used are from a 14-game sample to the handiness of pitchers. If I reference season numbers, I will mention that!

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BULLPEN REPORTS

Main Slate

Disclaimer: tonight I believe is very risky for cash games. I would lean to more GPP type contests tonight.

Aaron Nola (11k FD) (12k DK) (23.1k FD2) vs LAD

This pick definitely won’t be popular against the Dodgers, but I absolutely LOVE Nola when he pitches at home. He has some history against the Dodgers and has allowed just 3 hits in 42 at-bats. He also has a 28.5% strikeout rate against them too. Nola also has a 1.71 ERA at home, allowing a .237 wOBA. Nola has been dominate in July also with a 1.35 ERA in 20 innings with 24 strikeouts. Can you believe he has a 7% higher strikeout rate at home than the road? Well, believe it, because it’s true. He’s pushing a 30% strikeout rate at home with just a 5.4% walk rate. Aaron is just about unhittable against RHH too with a 27.3% strikeout rate, less than a 1 WHIP and a 2.84 xFIP. At home, Nola is allowing just a 19.4% hard contact rate and a 53% groundball rate. People will not pick on him with Dodgers hitters, but I think we can roll Nola in tournaments tonight.

Kenta Maeda (9.5k FD) (11.3k DK) (22.4k FD2) @ PHI

The Dodgers like to deploy Maeda in starting and out of the pen and he’s been amazing all season. In his starts this year, he has scored at least 40 fanduel points in 9 of the 16 starts. He also has recorded at least 9 strikeouts in 7 of his starts too. Maeda has had a couple rough starts, but for the most part, he’s been very good. This is his best season with the Dodgers out of the 3 so far. His strikeout rate is pushing 30% and he has a good 3.42 SIERA. The Phillies have a 22.8% strikeout rate vs RHP in their L14 with an 89 wRC+ and on the low end of ISO with .121. Their projected lineup has a .317 xwOBA and a 24.04% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching. Maeda does get hit a bit hard, but it has not hurt him too much this year so far. The Phillies have a tendency to strikeout a lot and can go cold at any time. Maeda has been very good against right-handed hitters and the Phillies will likely have 6 of them in their lineup tonight. This game I see having a very low total, and can definitely see a great pitcher’s duel tonight.

Zack Wheeler (9k FD) (7.7k DK) (15.7k FD2) vs SD

Pure GPP play for me tonight, and If he starts to become the talk of the day I may end up lowering my exposure to him. He has a great matchup though and has been solid over his last 6 starts and since May 22^nd he has been very good. When he’s bad though, he’s pretty bad and can score less than 20 fanduel points. He also has 7 starts over 40 fanduel points and has a handful in the mid to high 20s and 30s. The Padres were able to get deGrom in a couple jams, but they still have a 26% strikeout rate over their L14 vs RHP. That is the 4^th highest in the MLB and have a 77 wRC+ and a .116 ISO. Wheeler comes into this start with a solid 23% strikeout rate this year and has a SIERA just a bit over the league average. Surprisingly he has allowed just a 27% Hard contact rate and is getting a 44.4% groundball rate. Lefties have given him trouble this year, and the Padres will likely throw out 4+ lefties and that makes him riskier. The Padres have a tendency to strikeout a lot and Wheeler has at least 7 strikeouts in 5 of his last 6 starts. I see the upside with Wheeler in tournaments tonight. He is rather expensive though, but that could make him even lower owned.

Gerrit Cole (9.9k FD) (10.9k DK) (21.2k FD2) @ COL

I don’t normally like using pitchers in Coors, but Cole has been very good all season. His last two starts have been better lately scoring 55 and 44 fanduel points. He’s very cheap tonight pitching in Coors, and he still has 40+ upside. I’ll gladly take a 40 point game from Cole at under 10k. He comes into this start with a 35% strikeout rate on the year, allowing less than a baserunner per inning and has a SIERA of just 2.93. His strikeouts have been there all season, but his walks have been a tad high for my liking. Even in some of his rough outings though, he was able to get 7+ strikeouts. It’s Coors and there is always the risk of them scoring a ton of runs, but this total is low for a Coors game. Anywhere else it would be a 7 run total. There are not many great pitching options tonight, I don’t normally love Coors for a cash pitcher, but Cole is viable tonight.

Tyler Anderson (7.7k FD) (7.1k DK) (13.7k FD2) vs HOU

Anderson has the chance to shock people tonight. Anderson is a reverse splits pitcher and the Astros normally toss out 7-8 righties in their lineup each day. He also benefits from having to face Houston pitching. This year, Anderson has allowed just a .263 xwOBA against righties, and overall .247 xwOBA to both sides of the plate. He pitches pretty well in Coors as well with just a .254 xwOBA at home all season. Anderson has been able to get 23.7% strikeouts at home, and while the HR ball can hurt him (1.52 HR/9 at home), he still has had some good starts. Now, I’ll never use a pitcher against Houston when they are rolling, but Anderson has the ability to tame them a bit. He is a fairly split neutral pitcher with FB% and GB%, but he gets hit hard around 30% of the time at home. I think he could be a sneaky GPP play tonight against Houston and little ownership.

Felix Pena (7.1k FD) (5.5k DK) (11.1k FD2) vs CWS

On Draftkings, Pena is just too cheap. He has a wonderful matchup against the White Sox tonight too. They come into this game with a 24.6% strikeout rate against RHP. Chicago didn’t strikeout a lot last night, but Pena has been a better strikeout pitcher than Barria. Pena comes into this one with a 28.3% strikeout rate with a very good 3.28 SIERA. He doesn’t have a ton of MLB experience, but he hasn’t been that bad this year. I wish he went deeper into games (5.1 is the longest he’s gone in his MLB career), but he’s getting over a strikeout per inning. He’s cheap enough where a 25-35 point game will not kill you. He’s been around the mid-20s this year and had some tough opponents in the Dodgers (twice) and the Diamondbacks. If he has his strikeout stuff working tonight, he could rack up 6+ and let’s hope he goes deeper than 5 innings.

OTHERS I WOULD CONSIDER FOR MME/GPPS

Carlos Rodon (7.9k FD) (7.3k DK) (14.9k FD2) @ LAA

Eric Lauer (7.4k FD) (4k DK) (8k FD2) @ NYM (HE IS FREE ON DK AND FD2. USING HIM AS AN SP2 WILL SAVE SO MUCH MONEY. IF HE’S CHALKY, SO BE IT. I CAN SEE HIM PUTTING UP 15+ DK POINTS TONIGHT)

MAIN SLATE RANKINGS (listed how I like them for GPPs, I don’t like cash games at all tonight)

1. Kenta Maeda
2. Aaron Nola
3. Gerrit Cole
4. Zack Wheeler
5. Tyler Anderson
6. Felix Pena
7. Carlos Rodon (tough matchup for him vs LAA, the projected lineup has a .339 xwOBA and just a 19% K rate)
8. Eric Lauer (he’s free on DK/FD2)

QUICK PICK ON FANDUEL PITCHING TIER RANKS

TIER 1: Nola, Cole, Tanaka

2: Maeda, Wheeler, Rodon

3: Anderson, Lauer, Musgrove, Zimmermann, Montas

4: Pena, Borucki, Minor

Good Luck Everyone!