Welcome to the July 20^th Edition of Painting the Black, an MLB Pitching Breakdown for Fanduel, DraftKings, and Fantasydraft!

In case you all didn’t know, my name is Matt, mdellagnese14 on twitter. I am currently a student at Springfield College with a love and passion for sports, mainly baseball.

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I am mostly a Fanduel player, so the content in my articles will be for geared mainly towards Fanduel. However, I will include pricing from all three sites (Fanduel, Draftkings, FantasyDraft). Some plays may be better off for the two pitcher sites and I will mention that when needed about a pitcher.

Pitching is one of the most, if not the most important position in your MLB lineups and selecting the right one will help you tremendously. Go check out the MLB Pitching Strategy article to get my thought process on picking these pitchers each slate!

NOTE: most of the stats I used are from a 14-game sample to the handiness of pitchers. If I reference season numbers, I will mention that!

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If you find yourself thinking, “what do some of these stats mean?” Check out my new definitions article HERE. I explain what each stat I use mean, and reasons why I use those stats in my articles!

BULLPEN REPORTS

After what seemed like the longest week of the season, we are back! Let’s get right to this main slate!

Main Slate

Jake Arrieta (8k FD) (8.5k DK) (15.9k FD2) vs SD

First game back from the All-Star break has some pretty decent pitching options tonight. As you know, the order I write the pitchers is not the order I like them, hence the rankings at the end of the article. Arrieta had two amazing starts before the ASB and it looks like he could be back to form. He’s rested up and should be ready to tear apart this Padres lineup. His strikeouts have been pretty bad this year, and his advanced numbers are not the best. He has only given up 28% Hard% though and with his sinker is able to get a 55.3% groundball rate. Jake has been better at home this year, and that is where this start is. He’s allowed a .272 wOBA with just a .207 average compared to .321 wOBA and .275 average on the road. Before the break, the Padres had the 3^rd highest strikeout rate against RHP at 27.1% and had just a wOBA of .274. I believe Arrieta keeps rolling after the ASB with the playoff pushes beginning now.

Noah Syndergaard (9.8k FD) (9.3k DK) (17.6k FD2) @ NYY

The good ole subway series begins right after the all-star break. Syndergaard did not look his sharpest in his start off the DL, but he now has some extra time off to recover from his injury. I don’t normally pick on my Yankees, but I see extra strikeout opportunities against the Yankees who had the 6^th highest K% leading up to the ASB. Syndergaard has been pretty good this season and was a normal 30-40+ point fanduel scorer in a lot of his starts. The Yankees are getting healthy again and it will be a tougher matchup with Sanchez coming back. I think the extra time off was really good for him and he should be fresh for this one. The Yankees are dangerous, yes, but they have plenty of strikeouts. They have small sample against Syndergaard, with Stanton striking out 6 times over 11 at-bats. He hasn’t been getting hit hard all season with just a 23.3% Hard% and a 3.14 SIERA. I like his upside tonight against the Yankees.

Dylan Bundy (8.2k FD) (8.4k DK) (15.8k FD2) @ TOR

Bundy has been struggling of late, but now should be fresh and ready to go after this ASB. He faced Toronto once this year already and was marvelous. In a small sample, they have just a .170 average with a 38% strikeout rate. Despite struggling lately, he still has a great 25.7% strikeout rate on the season with an average 3.81 SIERA. Before the break, the Jays were just about middle of the pack with a 21.9% strikeout rate and pretty good other advanced stats. Bundy has looked pretty good on the road all season with a lower wOBA and BAA on the road. We have seen Bundy have very good upside this season, and has struggled every other month so far. Bundy has a 3% higher strikeout rate on the road and also almost a 2% lower walk rate. The stats do not lie about Bundy. He has decent numbers against the Jays and has been better on the road as well. I like his upside in this matchup with Toronto.

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Nathan Eovaldi (7.2k FD) (8.2k DK) (15.8k FD2) vs MIA

Eovaldi has a tough matchup in this one, with the Marlins rarely striking out before the break, but he has looked great this season with the Rays. He could see his final starts with the Rays as I think he will be traded soon. Since coming back from injury, he has been very good at home. He only has 2 starts but has been good in both of them allowing just 5 hits in 11 innings with a .236 wOBA with over a strikeout per inning. He has been very good against RHH this season too and the Marlins are projected to have 6 in their lineup tonight. They do benefit from getting a DH, but Eovaldi has shown upside this season too. He was horrible in his last start, but before that, he rolled off 2 50+ point fanduel games with a 31 against Miami. He gets his rematch with Miami and if he can duplicate his performance, he will easily be able to put up another 30+ point game.

Trevor Bauer (12.2k FD) (13.6k DK) (26.7k FD2) @ TEX

The most expensive pitcher across the board tonight, but he could very well be worth it. Bauer has been one of the best pitchers in baseball in the first half and I have no reason to believe he won’t keep it up. He ranks in the top 5 in the MLB in strikeout with 175 this year in just 136 innings. That’s good for a 31.4% strikeout rate and he has just a 1.08 WHIP. Bauer has pretty good numbers against the Rangers too. Over 77 at-bats they have just a .221 average with a 28.5% strikeout rates. Trevor has allowed just a .271 wOBA all season with a .227 batting average against. Before the All-Star break, the Rangers had the 4^th highest strikeout rate at 25.7% and had a very low .199 average, with a .264 wOBA. After already having a 51 point outing against the Ranger, I think Bauer is the top option on this slate given the upside he has against the Rangers.

Danny Duffy (7.5k FD) (6.1k DK) (11.8k FD2) vs MIN

Duffy has done something lately to turn his season around and totally dominated the Twins his last time against them. He has 2 starts against them this season and both have been very good, especially for his price. In those two starts, he has a combined 12 innings with 13 strikeouts and has allowed just 1 ER. His overall BvP numbers against them do not look good at all, but he has been shutting them down this year. His numbers look so bad across the board, but he’s actually been a lot better in the last 2 months. He lowered his ERA from 5.4+ in Mar-May, but in June and July, he has a sub 3.30 ERA. July has been very good to Duffy and has allowed a .272 wOBA with a 24% strikeout rate. Both of those numbers are much better than the past months. The Twins can be shaky, and Duffy is cheap enough to get almost any bats that you want tonight. Tournament play only though.

MAIN SLATE RANKINGS

1. Trevor Bauer (all formats)
2. Noah Syndergaard (all formats)
3. Jake Arrieta (all formats)
4. Nathan Eovaldi (GPP)
5. Dylan Bundy (GPP)
6. Danny Duffy (GPP)

QUICK PICK ON FANDUEL PITCHING TIER RANKS

TIER 1: Kluber, Syndergaard, Strasburg

2: Arrieta, Bundy, Skaggs, Keuchel, Gibson, Price, Jackson

3: Duffy, Marquez, Hill, Taillon, German, Sanchez

4: Eovaldi, Gaviglio, Boyd, Rodriquez, Mahle

To start out they are in order of how I like them. As quick pick gains more traction, I can change up the format for it, but for now, this is how I will do it!

Good Luck Everyone!