Welcome to the July 12^th Edition of Painting the Black, an MLB Pitching Breakdown for Fanduel, DraftKings, and Fantasydraft!

In case you all didn’t know, my name is Matt, mdellagnese14 on twitter. I am currently a student at Springfield College with a love and passion for sports, mainly baseball.

I was brought to the DFS Army to write pitching articles for all members of the DFSArmy! If you are not a member, join the DFSArmy and use promo code “DFSMATT” to get 10% off your subscription!

I am mostly a Fanduel player, so the content in my articles will be for geared mainly towards Fanduel. However, I will include pricing from all three sites (Fanduel, Draftkings, FantasyDraft). Some plays may be better off for the two pitcher sites and I will mention that when needed about a pitcher.

Pitching is one of the most, if not the most important position in your MLB lineups and selecting the right one will help you tremendously. Go check out the MLB Pitching Strategy article to get my thought process on picking these pitchers each slate!

NOTE: most of the stats I used are from a 14-game sample to the handiness of pitchers. If I reference season numbers, I will mention that!

ALWAYS PAY ATTENTION TO THE WEATHER FROM OUR VERY OWN @DFSWEATHER IN SLACK!!!

Any updates will be given in our VIP Slack Channel! <– click here to see our pricing to get the whole VIP experience!

If you find yourself thinking, “what do some of these stats mean?” Check out my new definitions article HERE. I explain what each stat I use mean, and reasons why I use those stats in my articles!

BULLPEN REPORTS

Yesterday’s Results

1. Chris Sale (67 FD) (39.55 DK)
2. Jacob deGrom (49 FD) (28.4 DK)
3. Lance McCullers (-3 FD) (-7.6 DK)
4. Kenta Maeda (47 FD) (29.75 DK)
5. Vince Velasquez (31 FD) (17.7 DK)
6. Marco Gonzales (43 FD) (26.55 DK)
7. Luke Weaver (40 FD) (22.5 DK)
8. Freddy Peralta (14 FD) (6.05 DK)
9. Dylan Bundy (6 FD) (-0.40 DK)

Main Slate

Max Scherzer (12k FD) (13.3k DK) (25.8k FD2) @ NYM

The top option for me today is Scherzer. Today is a day we will pay up for pitching in this article and it will be crucial to find the value bats. Luckily, we don’t have Coors on this main slate tonight. The Mets are absolutely atrocious lately and Max is always a Cy Young candidate. Over their L14 vs RHP, the Mets projected starting lineup has a wOBA of just .260 and an xwOBA of .264. They also have a very high 23.78 strikeout rate too. They have had 166 career at-bats against Mad Max and are hitting .265 with a .332 wOBA, which are higher numbers than I expected. They are striking out at a 31% clip against him though. Max has an amazing 35.4% strikeout rate this season with an amazing 16.9% Swinging Strike rate. He also has one of the league’s best SIERA’s at 2.62. The Mets don’t scare anyone and Max can show us 60+ point upside in this matchup. I hope his last start against the Marlins and low strikeouts will scare people off of him. I doubt it does, but it could. Scherzer is an elite option in all formats tonight.

Luis Severino (11.6k FD) (10.8k DK) (21.1k FD2) @ CLE

Yes, I know the Indians just exploded for 19 runs last night. Yes, I still like Severino because he is nothing like the pitchers the Indians faced last night. I will lean to the other side of this matchup though, but I love Severino for tournaments tonight. The Indians have a small sample against Severino, but in 62 at-bats they have a 30% K rate with a .177 average. Severino is pitching like a Cy Young this year too and has near a 30% strikeout rate with a low 6.5% walk rate. He, like Max, had a rougher start last time out, and the Indians are on fire, which will likely keep him lower owned sandwiched in between Max and Kluber. This game has a low 7 total tonight and it has the making of an amazing pitcher’s duel. Cleveland has a very good xwOBA in their L14 and they are striking out at the lowest rate in the MLB in that span. That is what leans me more for tournaments for Severino tonight. He has the upside to go out and toss a 50+ fanduel point game, but the matchup is extremely hard for him. His road numbers are a little worse than his home numbers, but he is still pitching his butt off this season. Since he’s on the road and the Indians are hot, I will keep him GPP only tonight.

Corey Kluber (11.2k FD) (10.2k DK) (19.5k FD2) vs NYY

Kluber is the 3^rd highest priced on FD and is actually priced quite lower on the other two sites. Guys like Snell and Paxton are priced above both Kluber and Severino tonight on DK and FD2. I think on fanduel, most people are going to drop to Kluber to get the $800 savings from Max, and $400 from Severino. Kluber has been kind of shaky of late, and in his last 3 starts his strikeouts have gone way down. The Yankees are a hot team as well but are striking out more than the Indians. Their projected lineup has a 21.88% strikeout rate. They have not been able to get hits off Kluber though. In 72 at-bats they have just 10 hits and have a 33.3% K rate. Kluber has been outstanding at home this year and we know that the Yankees can be prone to striking out. Hitters are hitting just .190 with a .220 wOBA against him in hope starts this season. The Klubot also has a 4% strikeout increase when pitching at home and he rarely walks anyone. Like I said before, this game can easily be a pitcher’s duel with it being a battle of the bullpens. Since Kluber is at home, and the Yankees are a bit cooler than the Indians, I favor Kluber this evening.

James Paxton (10.2k FD) (12.5k DK) (23.8k FD2) @ LAA

Paxton is pretty pricey tonight in a tough matchup, but the Angels have not been the best of late. Frequently I will be referencing our amazing lineups page, and you should be looking at that every day too. Looking at Los Angeles, they have just a .305 xwOBA with a .240 wOBA vs LHP lately. They are a team who never really strikes out, and they have a 17% K rate vs LHP. They are not hitting the ball though, and have virtually no power except for Simmons (remember L14 vs LHP), and Pujols. They must have a hard time picking up the ball from Paxton’s hand because as a team, over 147 at-bats, they have a 25% K rate while hitting just .190 with a .236 wOBA. Trout has a 40.7% K rate against him and Upton has a 50% K rate. Believe it or not, Paxton has been MUCH better against righties this season. His wOBA is .115 points better against RHH than lefties and allowing under a .190 average. Paxton has a wonderful 32.4% K rate this season too and a low 7% walk rate. I think Paxton could be the pitcher that is over-looked tonight even though he has amazing numbers vs RHH and the Angels.

Ross Stripling (8.7k FD) (9.1k DK) (17.8k FD2) @ SD

I will keep using pitchers against the Padres if they keep producing. Last night was Maeda, who pitched a great game against them. Stripling has been amazing since starting for the Dodgers this year. After 2 rougher outings, he bounced back last start with a 46 point game against the Angels. He ranks up there in strikeout rate at 28.7% and has one of the best walk rates in the MLB at 3.6%. His SIERA is even better than some others on this slate at 2.78 and isn’t getting hit that hard (28% Hard%). High GB rate (49%), good SwStr% (11.2%), and great K% (28.7%) make him a great play against the Padres tonight. They are implied just 3.13 runs as of now. Their projected starting lineup has just a 59 average DFSA Grade and a 22% strikeout rate. Myers has been scorching hot since coming back from the DL, but if Stripling can get around him tonight, he should have a great game. I assume he could be popular tonight given the matchup and price, but I still love him.

Tyler Skaggs (9.8k FD) (7.7k DK) (15.7k FD2) vs SEA

Skaggs is coming off missing 1 start due to a groin injury, but he seems to be good to go for tonight’s start against the Mariners. The Mariners, as a team are not hitting LHP very well lately, and are actually striking out a ton. They have a 25.3% K rate with the 5th lowest wRC+ in that span. Skaggs is coming off 3 starts where he has allowed just 2 total ER. He has been consistent over his last 5 starts, not scoring less than 30 fanduel points. We have seen 50 point upside from him a few times this year too. Seattle has been hot overall as a team lately, but Skaggs has the ability to shut them down here tonight. Skaggs does have a 26.4% K rate this season with a 7% walk rate with a 3.48 SIERA and 47% groundball rate. Those numbers are all great for me tonight. I love his price more on DraftKings than I do Fanduel, but I do see the appeal on all sites tonight.

OTHERS I DON’T MIND FOR SP2’S OR GPP

J.A. Happ: a tough matchup against the Red Sox, but dominated them earlier this season and needs to bounce back after two awful outings. I would not go crazy using him, but 1-2 shares out of 50+ lineups could be okay. He has good BvP against the Red Sox, despite them being the hottest team in the MLB right now.

Steven Matz: another pitcher with a tough matchup, but his price on DK makes him a great pair with Skaggs for DK tournaments. I don’t love him against the Nationals, but he has been great lately. He has 3 straight great games and is fairly cheap for tournaments tonight. He does have the upside for me tonight and is dirt cheap to use as an SP2.

MAIN SLATE RANKINGS

1. Max Scherzer (all formats)
2. Corey Kluber (all formats)
3. Luis Severino (lean GPP)
4. James Paxton (all formats)
5. Ross Stripling (all formats, great SP2 on DK)
6. Tyler Skaggs (lean GPP)

Very loose rankings today, all are viable in all formats in my opinion. This slate makes up a great MME slate, so really follow Donuts MME strategy tonight.

QUICK PICK ON FANDUEL PITCHING TIER RANKS

TIER 1: Scherzer, Kluber, Severino, Snell

TIER 2: Stripling, Skaggs, Gibson, Happ, Price

TIER 3: Matz, Taillon, Ross, Miley

To start out I will be listing EVERY option for each pitching tier. They are in order of how I like them. As quick pick gains more traction, I can change up the format for it, but for now, this is how I will do it!

Good Luck DFS Army!