Welcome to the July 11^th Edition of Painting the Black, an MLB Pitching Breakdown for Fanduel, DraftKings, and Fantasydraft!

In case you all didn’t know, my name is Matt, mdellagnese14 on twitter. I am currently a student at Springfield College with a love and passion for sports, mainly baseball.

I was brought to the DFS Army to write pitching articles for all members of the DFSArmy! If you are not a member, join the DFSArmy and use promo code “DFSMATT” to get 10% off your subscription!

I am mostly a Fanduel player, so the content in my articles will be for geared mainly towards Fanduel. However, I will include pricing from all three sites (Fanduel, Draftkings, FantasyDraft). Some plays may be better off for the two pitcher sites and I will mention that when needed about a pitcher.

Pitching is one of the most, if not the most important position in your MLB lineups and selecting the right one will help you tremendously. Go check out the MLB Pitching Strategy article to get my thought process on picking these pitchers each slate!

NOTE: most of the stats I used are from a 14-game sample to the handiness of pitchers. If I reference season numbers, I will mention that!

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BULLPEN REPORTS

Yesterday’s Results

1. Trevor Bauer (64 FD) (37.8 DK)
2. Justin Verlander (40 FD) (23.1 DK)
3. Rich Hill (30 FD) (16.35 DK)
4. Garrett Richards (left early due to injury)
5. Tyler Anderson (43 FD) (23.3 DK)
6. Enyel De Los Santos (38 FD) (19.45 DK)

Overall, this was a great pitching day for us. The key was Anderson and Santos, both of which CRUSHED value at low ownership last night. Bauer was unreal, but you were not wrong for using Verlander either as his points were plenty. Richards getting hurt was not expected and he was starting to turn his start around after a rough first inning. Let’s dig into tonight!

Main Slate

Jacob deGrom (12.1k FD) (12k DK) (22.9k FD2) vs PHI

We have plenty of options tonight, and I will start off with deGrom. The debate all day is going to be deGrom or Sale, well for cash games, split them up. I also like plenty of other options who are cheaper than them as well. Back to deGrom though. He leads the MLB in ERA this year, and it is a damn shame that the Mets have struggled to get him wins this year. He’s been consistent as anyone this year and only has TWO starts under 30 fanduel points this season. Similar to Bauer last night, except Bauer has more of the upside games we look for at high prices. Don’t be fooled, deGrom still can rack up double-digit strikeouts, but normally sits around 7-8 per start. He does have a 31.2% K rate this season though, and one of the best SIERA’s in the league at 2.89. Over the L14, the Phillies projected lineup has just a .318 xwOBA with a 23.24% strikeout rate against RHP. They also have just a 58.24 average DFSA Grade. deGrom also grades out as our top pitching arm on this main slate tonight. He and Sale are very expensive, and you will need to take a stand on Sale/deGrom or different bats you want. I love this play in all formats tonight though and he does have the upside.

Chris Sale (12.6k FD) (13k DK) (25k FD2) vs TEX

Here we go, Sale night against a strikeout-prone Rangers team. We are not sure if Gallo will start tonight, and he brings up their K% with his 40% K rate against LHP. As of now though, the Rangers are projected to have 4 lefties in their lineup. If Gallo isn’t in, it will bring their projected lineup K% down a lot, but they are facing Sale and he is not really human. He actually will make their xwOBA and wOBA go down a lot though. As a team, they have a .311 xwOBA to go along with a 22.26% K rate vs LHP in their L14. They grade out a tad worse than the Phillies at 57.31. We all know what Sale is capable of, and we cannot throw out the chance of him scoring 60 fanduel points tonight. The price is heavy for him, but in cash games, I think it is totally worth it, you just have to find those value hitters that you like. Good thing we have plenty of articles to help out! The Rangers have a .148 average against Sale with a .211 wOBA and a 40.8% strikeout rate. No one on their team worries me at all and Sale is my top option tonight for cash games.

Freddy Peralta (8.7k FD) (10.3k DK) (19.6k FD2) @ MIA

WOW, his price on DK/FD2 is very steep. I like him a lot more on Fanduel for a sub 9k price. Last time out he faced a very good Braves team and was able to give up 43 fanduel points in that start. His last two, he has struggled with walks, but still was able to produce. Peralta has shown us 60 point upside, getting double-digit strikeouts in 2 of his appearances so far since being called up. The high strikeout rate is not surprising to me as he is on pace to outlast his minor league K% of 34%. Walks have been quite high for him throughout his career, but in the MLB he still has a WHIP under 1. The one stat I really like is his SIERA, that sits at 3.15. Early on his MLB career, he has amassed an amazing 14.1% SwStr% and a low 68% contact rate. Miami is a team who seems to hit on star pitchers but have struggled against others. Looking at our lineups page, they have a pretty good xwOBA at .347, but grade out as one of the worst teams today at 39.51. Peralta has shown us amazing strikeout ability so far, and I expect him to get his K’s again tonight. I love him for tournaments.

Luke Weaver (6.6k FD) (7.7k DK) (15.6k FD2) @ CWS

As of right now, he is my favorite tournament play. I do worry he could start being chalky given the matchup, but that does not make me like him any less. We saw Mikolas strikeout 6 of these White Sox last night, and Mikolas is not a strikeout pitcher. Weaver has a better K% than Mikolas at 21.2% this year and showed us a 28% K rate last season. He was amazing over 8 innings last start against the Giants where he struck out 7 and scored 49 fanduel points. I can see him putting up similar numbers in this start against the White Sox tonight. Some of Weaver’s biggest games this year have come on the road too, especially of late as his last 2 road starts he has gotten more than 40 fanduel points. Chicago’s projected lineup tonight has a .263 xwOBA with a 25.26% strikeout rate. Those numbers are ones I LOVE to see when looking for a tournament pitcher. Like I said earlier, Weaver is my top GPP play as of now. If the Sox throw out a ton of righties I like him even more, if they happen to find 4+ lefties then I will like him a bit less tonight.

Lance McCullers (11.4k FD) (11k DK) (21.6k FD2) vs OAK

One of my favorite pivots off of Sale/deGrom (besides one I will mention next). McCullers has been simply amazing of late for Houston. Verlander pitched a great game last night, only to have the bullpen blow his win, but they ended up getting the win anyway. Over his last 5 starts, he has not scored less than 40 fanduel points and has gone 6+ innings in each of his last 7 starts. McCullers is an AMAZING pivot off the top two guys tonight and I love him, even against a hot A’s team. He comes into this start with a 27% strikeout rate with an amazing 55.8% GB rate. He also is pitching to a better than average SIERA at 3.42. Oakland still has been hot lately, but they are facing the AL’s best pitching staff this series, and their projected lineup does have a 21.43% strikeout rate. They also grade out very low as they have an average of 59.10 DFSA Grade. Lance has been pitching his butt off this year and has a career-high in SwStr%, First pitch strike %, O-Swing%, Z-Swing%. Also has a career low in O-Contact%, Z-Contact %, and Contact% as a whole. Again, McCullers is one of my favorite pivots off the two higher priced guys tonight.

Kenta Maeda (9.5k FD) (9.3k DK) (17.9k FD2) @ SD

My other favorite pivot in cash games off the Sale and deGrom is Maeda against the Padres. Rich Hill and Kershaw both had great games against the Padres (even though Hill gave up 4 ER, still had decent fantasy point game). When healthy, Maeda has been amazing this season and over his career with the Dodgers. He has a 28.7% K rate this season with an average 3.53 SIERA. He’s a fairly splits neutral pitcher over his career and those won’t matter too much in San Diego. Maeda is another one of our pitchers who grades out above 90 tonight and the Padres don’t look that great. Their projected lineup does have a slightly above league average xwOBA at .337, but they have a very low .113 ISO and a decent 22% strikeout rate. They are another team whose average grade is under 60. Wil Myers is the main guy here who is absolutely crushing the ball, but other than him, they have not been that great. Kenta has had 3 straight starts with more than 40 fanduel points and has been very good in starts this season. Maeda makes for another great pivot off the top two guys and I love his chances of a high scoring game tonight.

Dylan Bundy (8.5k FD) (6.1k DK) (11.7k FD2) vs NYY

Okay, Draftkings and Fantasydraft, WHAT ARE YOU THINKING. Yes, I get it, he’s facing the Yankees, but these prices are a joke. Thank you Donuts for pointing this out to me, because I looked over it at first. I don’t care of his opponent tonight, Bundy is a great GPP option on DK/FD2 because he is way too cheap. We saw him up 8-10k range on DK all season and now he’s this low?! The matchup is not great for him, but the price is phenomenal and he does have the upside. The Yankees are a very dangerous offense, but they also have been striking out a lot lately. As a team, they have the 4^th highest strikeout rate in the MLB vs RHP in the L14 at 24.2%. Bundy has been very good against RHH this season allowing a .278 wOBA with a .188 average, compared to .309 average and .374 wOBA against LHH. I think with Bundy’s awful last start will keep his ownership down even at this very low price. The Yankees have a ton of power, we all know that, but they have a tendency to go ghost and strikeout a lot. Definite GPP only play tonight, but the risk/reward factor is what we love!

MAIN SLATE RANKINGS

1. Chris Sale (all formats)
2. Jacob deGrom (all formats)
3. Lance McCullers (all formats, GREAT PIVOT OFF TOP 2)
4. Kenta Maeda (all formats, love pairing him and McCullers)
5. Luke Weaver (my top GPP play, cash viable as an SP2)
6. Freddy Peralta (GPP)
7. Dylan Bundy (GPP, favor the DK price)