Welcome to the July 26th Edition of Painting the Black, an MLB Pitching Breakdown for Fanduel, DraftKings, and Fantasydraft!
In case you all didn’t know, my name is Matt, mdellagnese14 on twitter. I am currently a student at Springfield College with a love and passion for sports, mainly baseball.
I was brought to the DFS Army to write pitching articles for all members of the DFSArmy! If you are not a member, join the DFSArmy and use promo code “DFSMATT” to get 10% off your subscription!
I am mostly a Fanduel player, so the content in my articles will be for geared mainly towards Fanduel. However, I will include pricing from all three sites (Fanduel, Draftkings, FantasyDraft). Some plays may be better off for the two pitcher sites and I will mention that when needed about a pitcher.
Pitching is one of the most, if not the most important position in your MLB lineups and selecting the right one will help you tremendously. Go check out the MLB Pitching Strategy article to get my thought process on picking these pitchers each slate!
NOTE: most of the stats I used are from a 14-game sample to the handiness of pitchers. If I reference season numbers, I will mention that!
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If you find yourself thinking, “what do some of these stats mean?” Check out my new definitions article HERE. I explain what each stat I use mean, and reasons why I use those stats in my articles!
BULLPEN REPORTS
Above are the MLB’s bullpen reports. The stats that are given are some of the most important stats I look for in pitching. I have them sorted by most runs given up, this can be a key stat to picking on a team’s bullpen and winning some tournaments! DFS Army members get this EVERYDAY!
Main Slate
Nick Kingham (8.5k FD) (9.4k DK) vs NYM
I still love picking on the Mets, and that will not change until they start to heat up for more than one game. He’s rolled out 3 straight 32+ point fanduel games and 16+ DraftKings points. In those starts, he recorded a win and a quality start striking out 17 in 18.2 innings. The Mets are implied for just 3.64 runs as of now, and their offense only has 2 hitters with an above average xwOBA. Looking below, you can see what we have as their projected lineup.
Matt Den Dekker, as you see his stats are not showing up, but on the year, he has a horrible .149 xwOBA, so it’ll just make their average xwOBA lower to a horrible .250 xwOBA. They are not striking out as much as usual, but again, Den Dekker’s will raise that up as he has a 45% strikeout rate in the bigs this year. The Mets are a team I will continue to pick on, and I think Kingham has upside in this matchup tonight.
Brian Johnson (5.7k FD) (7k DK) vs MIN
I think these low guys will be quite popular tonight, but Johnson is one that I really like. He comes into this game coming off of 2 “okay” starts for Boston. The positives are that he has not allowed more than 2 ER since way back in May, but the bad thing is most of the outings were out of the bullpen. Giving up 1-2 runs out of the pen in less than an inning is never good. His advanced stats look pretty bad, but he doesn’t get hit too hard (just 31%), and his SIERA isn’t that high (4.16). I wish he got more strikeouts, but he does have 5 in his last two starts. Johnson showed upside in some starts last year, and actually has a career-high SwStr%, even though it is low at 8.5%. Righties hit him very well, but he does do a good job at limiting the lefties. The Twins lineup does have some good righties, but they aren’t really doing much right now. We at the Army have them projected for 4 lefties tonight. Here is their team vs LHP in the L14 courtesy of our amazing lineups page.
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Sonny Gray (7.8k FD) (8.2k DK) vs KC
I usually hate rostering Sonny Gray at home, but the matchup with KC is a good one. I think Gray will garner some ownership tonight, and he has the ability to have a good game. The Royals are heating up a bit, but still have a 21.7% strikeout rate in their projected lineup (hint, sign up and you can see their projected lineup numbers). I’ll give you this one, their average DFSA Grade is just a 59.24, which is the 4th lowest on the slate. Gray allows a horrible xwOBA to LHH, but just .229 xwOBA against RHH. The more righties the Royals toss in, the better for Gray tonight. His launch angle on balls in play is very low, some of the lowest on this slate, despite allowing almost 90 mph average exit velocity. These could be hard hit grounders, as he gets 47.6% groundballs because of his sinker. Right now, we have KC projected for 4 lefties, but none outside of Moose really scare me. If they roll out more lefties, I will likely change my stance on him, but for now, I think he could have a good game tonight. The Royals roster has only 74 at-bats against him, but are hitting just .203 with a .224 wOBA. Near the trade deadline, if the Yankees want to trade him, he will need to put up a few good starts.
Trevor Cahill (7.4k FD) (9.9k DK) @ TEX
These two teams are both playing some pretty good baseball right now, but Oakland is the hottest team in the league. They get a wonderful matchup against good ole Bartolo Colon and Cahill has some definite upside tonight. Cahill comes into this start pitching pretty well for the A’s. He has a 24.3% strikeout rate this season allowing just over a baserunner per inning. His SIERA sits at 3.49 which is below the league average and gets a wonderful 58.5% groundball rate. The Rangers can be a good team, but they also have 24.4% strikeout rate vs RHP over the last two weeks. Their projected lineup has a horrible 24.56% strikeout rate along with one of the lowest xwOBA’s on the slate at .306.
If you were a DFS Army member, you know why we weigh xwOBA more than wOBA. Keith (or BoomersDaddy in slack) has a great explanation on it too!
MAIN SLATE RANKINGS
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QUICK PICK ON FANDUEL PITCHING TIER RANKS
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Good Luck Everyone!
