Welcome to the June 12th Edition of the MLB Pitching Breakdown for Fanduel, DraftKings, and Fantasydraft!
In case you all didn’t know, my name is Matt, mdellagnese14 on twitter. I am currently a student at Springfield College with a love and passion for sports, mainly baseball.
I was brought to the DFS Army to write pitching articles for all members of the DFSArmy! If you are not a member, join the DFSArmy and use promo code “DFSMATT” to get 10% off your subscription!
I am mostly a Fanduel player, so the content in my articles will be for geared mainly towards Fanduel. However, I will include pricing from all three sites (Fanduel, Draftkings, FantasyDraft). Some plays may be better off for the two pitcher sites and I will mention that when needed about a pitcher.
Pitching is one of the most, if not the most important position in your MLB lineups and selecting the right one will help you tremendously. Go check out the MLB Pitching Strategy article to get my thought process on picking these pitchers each slate!
NOTE: most of the stats I used are from a 14-game sample to the handiness of pitchers. If I reference season numbers, I will mention that!
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Definitions of Stats used in articles via Fangraphs.com
K% (Strikeout Percentage): Frequency with which the pitcher has struck out a batter, calculated as strikeouts divided by total batters faced.
An average K% is 20%, anything above is considered great or elite
BB% (Walk Percentage): Frequency with which the pitcher has issued a walk, calculated as walks divided by total batters faced. Average BB% for pitchers is 7.7%, anything lower is considered great or elite
BABIP (Batting Average on Balls in Play): The rate at which the pitcher allows a hit when the ball is put in play. A BABIP at or near .300 is considered average. EXAMPLE: if a pitcher has a BABIP of .200 it means he could be getting lucky and balls in play are turned into outs if they have a BABIP of .400 he could be getting unlucky on balls in play and they are turning into hits.
xFIP (Expected Fielding Independent Pitching): An estimate of a pitcher’s ERA based on strikeouts, walks/HBP, and fly balls allowed, assuming league average results on balls in play and home run to fly ball ratio. The Lower the xFIP the better. 3.80 is around average.
SIERA (Skill-Interactive ERA): An ERA estimator that attempts to more accurately capture a pitcher’s performance based on strikeouts, walks/HBP, home runs, and batted ball data. The lower the better 3.90 is considered average, so anything below that is great to excellent. Anything about is poor.
Hard% (Hard Contact Percentage): Percentage of hard-hit batted balls. Anything below 30% is considered average or better. the lower Hard% the better, meaning pitchers are giving up more soft contact.
wRC+: A rate statistic that credits a hitter for the value of each outcome rather than treating them all equally. League average is 100, each point above or below that is one percentage point better or worse than league average. wRC+ is a better representation of offense value.
O-Swing% = Swings at pitches outside the zone/pitches outside the zone
Z-Swing% = Swings at pitches inside the zone/pitches inside the zone
Swing% = Swings/Pitches
O-Contact% = Number of pitches on which contact was made on pitches outside the zone / Swings on pitches outside the zone
Z-Contact% = Number of pitches on which contact was made on pitches inside the zone / Swings on pitches inside the zone
SwStr% = Swings and misses/Total Pitches
BULLPEN REPORTS
The following table is a bullpen report. This is used to help you determine potential bullpens to pick on. It is sorted by WHIP today but will be sorted by SIERA in the future.
MAIN SLATE
Eduardo Rodriguez (8.5k FD) (11.1k DK) (21.3k FD2) @ BAL
Well, I see E-Rod being a tad chalky on this big slate tonight. I love his price and he is priced up on DK/FD2 for good reason. He has one of, if not the best matchup on the board against the Orioles. Mark my words, tonight is the night the Sox break out against David Hess. I’m never a big fan of E-Rod, but absolutely love him tonight. He comes into this start with a wonderful 27.6% K rate on the season and a 3.45 SIERA. His Hard% sits at just 27.5% and if we look at some statcast data, he has an xwOBA of .289 and is getting a career-low barrel%. This season, Rodriguez has 7 starts with 30 or more fanduel points and has already scored 49 and 44 fanduel points against the Orioles this season. For what he has been doing of late, I do think he is a tad underpriced on fanduel tonight, but DK/FD2 have done a great job putting him up a bit. Over the L14 vs LHP, Baltimore has been atrocious. They come in with a wRC+ of just 20, a wOBA of .203, and ISO of .023. E-Rod will look to shut them down tonight and is one of my favorite plays tonight.
Jon Gray (7.5k FD) (8k DK) (15k FD2) @ PHI
Gray comes into this game very cheap against a very exploitable matchup. He is still priced like he’s pitching in Coors, which he is not tonight. Gray has been spectacular this season and has a 25.7% K rate with a 3.47 SIERA and 45.6% GB rate. He does get hit hard, but his xwOBA is 30 points lower than his actual wOBA. The Phillies have gotten Rhys Hoskins back, but that really means more chances for strikeouts as he has a 27% K rate this season. Gray does have some power bats to get around, but most of them have a high strikeout rate. Over the L14, the Phillies have a 29.2% K rate along with a .279 wOBA. For his upside in this matchup, I love him tonight.
Aaron Nola (9.5k FD) (12k DK) (22.9k FD2) vs COL
Nola has been outstanding all season and gets a good matchup at home tonight. He is the most expensive on 2 of the 3 sites 2nd on Fantasydraft tonight. After his first few starts were less than impressive, he has been able to keep his strikeouts up around 6 or more. This season, Nola has 6 starts with more than 40 fanduel points this season. Other than his start against the Cardinals, he hasn’t allowed more than 3 ER this year either. Normally, Nola can give you 6+ innings each game. His numbers look amazing as his wOBA sits a .238, and his xwOBA sits a .265 while he is giving up an xBA of .214. He’s getting 53.7% groundballs with a 27% hard% and 3.42 SIERA this year. He has been a little better at home this year, but close to neutral between home/road. The Rockies are doing well of late, but I think this game has the makings of a pitcher’s duel tonight.
Mike Foltynewicz (9k FD) (11.8k DK) (23.2k FD2) vs NYM
Between the Orioles and the Mets I like to pick on them lately. They have been really struggling and the numbers show it. The Mets are getting a bit unlucky with a low BABIP, but they still have a 25.7% K rate in their L14. Their wOBA is just .265 and wRC+ of 67. Folty has been very good this year and it has surprised a lot of people. He comes into this start with an amazing 28.7% K rate and a WHIP of just 1.19. These are MUCH better numbers compared to last season. His SIERA is 3.70 which is almost a full run lower than last season too. Foltynewicz has a xwOBA under .300 and his xBA is just .216. Looking at his pitches he throws a 4-seamer, slider, sinker, change, and curveball. The Mets, on his FB they have an average 65% contact rate with virtually no power. They have no one above a 68% contact rate against his slider and they have no one under a 30% whiff rate. His sinker will get hit a little more, but also will almost always be on the ground as the Mets have a high GB rate on sinkers. He doesn’t throw his change or curve all that much, but the Mets still aren’t hitting those two pitches very well either. I love his home splits this season so far. He has a 32.9% K rate which is 8% more than on the road and also has a 2.75 xFIP compared to 4.15 xFIP on the road. Folty could be lower owned tonight because people will go up to Nola or down to E-Rod. If he’s going to be low owned, I love him even more tonight.
Miles Mikolas (9.3k FD) (10.9k DK) (21.2k FD2) vs SD
I hate paying this type of price for a low strikeout guy, by game after game he is proving he can still put up good numbers. He’s putting up numbers close to what he did last season in Japan, just with fewer strikeouts. His 18.5% K rate is underwhelming, but he also isn’t walking any batters either (3% BB%). He has been able to get 1.91 GB/FB. This means for every 1.91 groundball outs, he gets a fly ball out, that is a great ratio. The Padres have not been a walk in the park lately, but still, have a 22.6% K rate and have been average for the other advanced stat categories. Right-handed hitters will have little results against him as he has allowed a .198 wOBA to them this season. By now, you may know I like to look at home/road splits for pitchers. Now that most pitchers have enough stats for both sides, I will end up using them more in my articles. Here are Mikolas’ basic stats for home/road from fangraphs.com
Mikolas is priced up, but he has been able to pitch to that price tag, other than the sub-par games against the Pirates. I expect him to be lower owned with the names around him tonight.
Pitchers who missed my cut for mainstays, but I wouldn’t mind using in a couple of MME lineups tonight.
- Jake Odorizzi
- C.C. Sabathia
- Tanner Roark (Yankees are striking out a TON lately)
- Lance McCullers (beware, he does have bad road splits this year)
- Jaime Barria
- Daniel Mengden (Houston is playing great right now, but Mengden does have great home splits)
MAIN SLATE RANKINGS
- Mike Foltynewicz (all formats)
- Aaron Nola (all formats)
- Eduardo Rodriguez (all formats)
- Jon Gray (lean GPP)
- Miles Mikolas (cash)
