Welcome to the June 11th Edition of the MLB Pitching Breakdown for Fanduel, DraftKings, and Fantasydraft!
In case you all didn’t know, my name is Matt, mdellagnese14 on twitter. I am currently a student at Springfield College with a love and passion for sports, mainly baseball.
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I am mostly a Fanduel player, so the content in my articles will be for geared mainly towards Fanduel. However, I will include pricing from all three sites (Fanduel, Draftkings, FantasyDraft). Some plays may be better off for the two pitcher sites and I will mention that when needed about a pitcher.
Pitching is one of the most, if not the most important position in your MLB lineups and selecting the right one will help you tremendously. Go check out the MLB Pitching Strategy article to get my thought process on picking these pitchers each slate!
NOTE: most of the stats I used are from a 14-game sample to the handiness of pitchers. If I reference season numbers, I will mention that!
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Definitions of Stats used in articles via Fangraphs.com
K% (Strikeout Percentage): Frequency with which the pitcher has struck out a batter, calculated as strikeouts divided by total batters faced.
An average K% is 20%, anything above is considered great or elite
BB% (Walk Percentage): Frequency with which the pitcher has issued a walk, calculated as walks divided by total batters faced. Average BB% for pitchers is 7.7%, anything lower is considered great or elite
BABIP (Batting Average on Balls in Play): The rate at which the pitcher allows a hit when the ball is put in play. A BABIP at or near .300 is considered average. EXAMPLE: if a pitcher has a BABIP of .200 it means he could be getting lucky and balls in play are turned into outs if they have a BABIP of .400 he could be getting unlucky on balls in play and they are turning into hits.
xFIP (Expected Fielding Independent Pitching): An estimate of a pitcher’s ERA based on strikeouts, walks/HBP, and fly balls allowed, assuming league average results on balls in play and home run to fly ball ratio. The Lower the xFIP the better. 3.80 is around average.
SIERA (Skill-Interactive ERA): An ERA estimator that attempts to more accurately capture a pitcher’s performance based on strikeouts, walks/HBP, home runs, and batted ball data. The lower the better 3.90 is considered average, so anything below that is great to excellent. Anything about is poor.
Hard% (Hard Contact Percentage): Percentage of hard-hit batted balls. Anything below 30% is considered average or better. the lower Hard% the better, meaning pitchers are giving up more soft contact.
wRC+: A rate statistic that credits a hitter for the value of each outcome rather than treating them all equally. League average is 100, each point above or below that is one percentage point better or worse than league average. wRC+ is a better representation of offense value.
O-Swing% = Swings at pitches outside the zone/pitches outside the zone
Z-Swing% = Swings at pitches inside the zone/pitches inside the zone
Swing% = Swings/Pitches
O-Contact% = Number of pitches on which contact was made on pitches outside the zone / Swings on pitches outside the zone
Z-Contact% = Number of pitches on which contact was made on pitches inside the zone / Swings on pitches inside the zone
SwStr% = Swings and misses/Total Pitches
BULLPEN REPORTS from fangraphs.com
MAIN SLATE
Steven Wright (6.2k FD) (7.2k DK) (14.8 FD2) @ BAL
One of my favorite GPP options tonight at a VERY cheap price. Baltimore has seen their wRC+ go up a big for their L14 numbers, but they still are striking out 27% of the time too. Before having 1 start, Wright was amazing out of the bullpen all season and carried that into his start against the Tigers. He was able to put up 49 fanduel points at a very low price and still hasn’t seen a big price jump. If you take a look at our lineups page, over the L14 vs RHP the O’s have an xwOBA of just .298 and a high 25.21% K rate. Vegas sees this as a pick ‘em game which is likely to happen as Bundy can pitch a wonderful game on the other side too. On the season, Wright has a 22.7% K rate, 1.04 WHIP and allowing just a .147 average against. His walks are high, but that’s to be expected with a knuckleball. With the knuckleball, he has been able to get 54.5% groundballs this year and has just an 18.2% Hard%. The Orioles have some decent BvP numbers against the knuckleballer, but it all depends how the knuckleball is moving tonight. I can’t use Wright in cash games, but in GPPs he is a great play tonight.
Dylan Bundy (9k FD) (7.5k DK) (14.4k FD2) vs BOS
My favorite GPP play tonight is going to be Bundy against the Red Sox. Boston has been a bit cold this weekend and lost 2 of 3 against the White Sox this past weekend. Bundy has been amazing this year and has consistently scored 30 fanduel points this year. Since he had a few struggling starts for Bundy, he has put up 52, 30, 70, 31, and 46 fanduel points. Bundy does not have the best numbers against the Sox but has been able to put up 30+ in his two starts against them this year. On the season, Bundy has a 27.5% K rate with a 3.49 SIERA. His flyball tendencies can hurt him against the Red Sox tonight, but I still think he’s a great GPP option. Most of the Sox have a very high contact rate against his fastball, but they have lower against sliders. They only have 1 guy above 75% contact rate against sliders. Loosmeister has shown me that our MLB model is leaning on the under for this game, and starting to favor the Orioles. Bundy will have his upside capped with the Sox only striking out 20% in the last 14, but I still think he can produce a solid game with the Sox starting to struggle of late.
Sam Gaviglio (6.3k FD) (7.3k DK) (14.8k FD2) @ TB
Solid pitching environment for Gaviglio tonight in St. Pete vs the Rays. Sam had an amazing start against the Yanks in his last start and for his price, we will easily take 30 fanduel points a start. He does not have big strikeout upside normally, but the Rays are striking out 23.7% of the time to RHP in their L7. He still has a 22.8% K rate on the year with a WHIP under 1.00. His SIERA is great a 3.54 and his hard contact is 28.8%. I doubt many people will look his way as he isn’t a name that will spark anyone’s interest. I actually love both sides of this game and for a small slate we have a lot of options
Ryan Yarbrough (6.1k FD) (5.6k DK) (11.2k FD2) vs TOR
Finally, the Rays seem to be done with the closer for 1 inning then toss Yarbrough in for the 2nd. Yarbrough has been very good this season in whatever role he has been asked to do. Looking at our lineups page, the projected Jays lineup has an average DFSA Grade of 68.80 which is on the lower side. They also have just a .221 wOBA, but a .299 xwOBA. The Jays have not been the best vs LHP of late as they have just a 74 wRC+ in their L14 against them. They do have power as we know but Yarbrough has a decent 22.1% K rate this season with an average 3.81 SIERA. At least today he has the chance to get a QS since he’s actually starting. He tossed 5 innings earlier this year against the Jays and scored 33 fanduel points. Yarbrough has the ability to rack up strikeouts in a hurry though. I believe this slate is wonderful for MME’ing those quarter games!
Madison Bumgarner (8.8k FD) (10.4k DK) (20.2k FD2) @ MIA
Mad Bum is still cheap on fanduel, but has been priced up on DK/FD2 for this start, and rightfully so. This is only his 2nd start of the 2018 season, but it is a favorable one none the less. The Marlins have been middle of the pack vs LHP in their L14 and have just a 20% K rate. Castro is the guy with BvP against Mad Bum as he’s 14-30 with 3 doubles, but no one else besides Maybin has seen him more than 3 times. He still was able to get a QS against Arizona but was outdueled by Patrick Corbin that night. His strikeouts were almost nonexistent but that should turn around tonight. The biggest reason I like Bum tonight is his chance at the win. He will be fairly popular tonight, especially on fanduel with his low price. I want to see him pitch a few times before I use him in cash games, but I still like him for tournaments as I see a 30+ point game from Bumgarner tonight.
Carlos Carrasco (9.7k FD) (10.7k DK) (20.8k FD2) @ CWS
Ding ding ding, we have found our chalk for tonight’s slate. Carrasco will be chalky, as he’s the most expensive player on fanduel and is still under 10k. The White Sox were able to take 2 of 3 from the Red Sox, but still did not score that many runs in those games either. Over their last 14 vs RHP, they have a very high 25.4% K rate with a 76 wRC+. Their wOBA is at .281 which isn’t that horrible. Carrasco is the biggest favorite so far at -240 and does have an amazing matchup. His strikeouts are still down a little from last year, but still has a 24.4% K rate and just 6% walk rate. Looking at his splits this season, he has SOME better numbers on the road. Below are Carrasco’s splits for home/road.
Only 3 White Sox hitters have more than 10 at-bats against Carrasco and none of those guys have crazy numbers that will take me off Carrasco. I do think I will be underweight with him though tonight, but for H2H and cash games, he is the guy.
Jack Flaherty (7.7k FD) (8.3k DK) (16.2k FD2) vs SD
Likely a chalky play on DK as an SP2 tonight, but also a great option on fanduel as well. Flaherty has shown great K upside this season so far in the MLB with a 26.1% K rate and just 6% walk rate. He has a SIERA of 3.44 but has a high Hard% (41.1%). The Padres projected lineup has a 24% K rate against RHP with just a .117 ISO and .293 wOBA. Their xwOBA is ‘okay’ at .330. Flaherty does have an extremely high DFSA Grade at 96.34 though and I love his chances at the win tonight. He has a great 31.4% K rate against righties and the Padres are projected to have just 3 RHH in their lineup. Their lefties, other than Hosmer do not scare me all that much though. Like I said, Flaherty will likely be chalky tonight, but I do like him a lot.
Patrick Corbin (9.3k FD) (11.2k DK) (21.1k FD2) vs PIT
The Pirates are a team who does not strike out a ton, but they have not been doing much else of late either vs LHP. Our lineups page has them projected at 3.63 runs. Over their L14 vs LHP, they have just a .253 wOBA and .089 ISO. Their xwOBA is a bit higher a .312, but that still is on the lower end of tonight’s slate. As a team, the Pirates have a 20% K rate vs LHP in the L14 with a low 69 wRC+. They have been underwhelming of late and Corbin has been great this season. He has a career-high 32.7% K rate on the year, limiting hitters to a .186 average and has a WHIP at 0.94. He has one of the best SIERA’s on the slate at 2.79 and has a 46% GB rate. His Hard hit rate is VERY high at 40.8%, but it isn’t hurting him much this year. Corbin has a 13.8% SwStr% this season and is missing a lot of bats. He has been able to score at least 30 fanduel points in 12 of his 13 starts this season and has the ability to go 6+ innings too. You can expect Corbin to get 6+ strikeouts almost every start too. I love Corbin as a pivot of Carrasco tonight at much lower ownership.
I will be tossing Andrew Heaney in a couple of my MME lineups tonight, but he is not a mainstay. The Mariners have been pretty good against LHP of late and Heaney has negative road numbers compared to his home numbers.
Another MME play for me is Junior Guerra. Again, not if I’m playing 1-2 lineups, but for MME I wouldn’t mind taking a shot on him in a couple of them. He has good BvP against the Cubs but isn’t really that good. I will take a shot on him though in a couple of my quarter entries tonight.
MAIN SLATE RANKINGS
- Carlos Carrasco (all formats)
- Patrick Corbin (all formats)
- Dylan Bundy (GPP)
- Madison Bumgarner (all formats)
- Jack Flaherty (chalk SP2 in cash, great GPP play)
- Steven Wright (GPP)
- Sam Gaviglio (GPP)
- Ryan Yarbrough (GPP)
