Welcome to the June 8th Edition of the MLB Pitching Breakdown for Fanduel, DraftKings, and Fantasydraft!
In case you all didn’t know, my name is Matt, mdellagnese14 on twitter. I am currently a student at Springfield College with a love and passion for sports, mainly baseball.
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I am mostly a Fanduel player, so the content in my articles will be for geared mainly towards Fanduel. However, I will include pricing from all three sites (Fanduel, Draftkings, FantasyDraft). Some plays may be better off for the two pitcher sites and I will mention that when needed about a pitcher.
Pitching is one of the most, if not the most important position in your MLB lineups and selecting the right one will help you tremendously. Go check out the MLB Pitching Strategy article to get my thought process on picking these pitchers each slate!
NOTE: most of the stats I used are from a 14-game sample to the handiness of pitchers. If I reference season numbers, I will mention that!
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Definitions of Stats used in articles via Fangraphs.com
K% (Strikeout Percentage): Frequency with which the pitcher has struck out a batter, calculated as strikeouts divided by total batters faced.
An average K% is 20%, anything above is considered great or elite
BB% (Walk Percentage): Frequency with which the pitcher has issued a walk, calculated as walks divided by total batters faced. Average BB% for pitchers is 7.7%, anything lower is considered great or elite
BABIP (Batting Average on Balls in Play): The rate at which the pitcher allows a hit when the ball is put in play. A BABIP at or near .300 is considered average. EXAMPLE: if a pitcher has a BABIP of .200 it means he could be getting lucky and balls in play are turned into outs if they have a BABIP of .400 he could be getting unlucky on balls in play and they are turning into hits.
xFIP (Expected Fielding Independent Pitching): An estimate of a pitcher’s ERA based on strikeouts, walks/HBP, and fly balls allowed, assuming league average results on balls in play and home run to fly ball ratio. The Lower the xFIP the better. 3.80 is around average.
SIERA (Skill-Interactive ERA): An ERA estimator that attempts to more accurately capture a pitcher’s performance based on strikeouts, walks/HBP, home runs, and batted ball data. The lower the better 3.90 is considered average, so anything below that is great to excellent. Anything about is poor.
Hard% (Hard Contact Percentage): Percentage of hard-hit batted balls. Anything below 30% is considered average or better. the lower Hard% the better, meaning pitchers are giving up more soft contact.
wRC+: A rate statistic that credits a hitter for the value of each outcome rather than treating them all equally. League average is 100, each point above or below that is one percentage point better or worse than league average. wRC+ is a better representation of offense value.
O-Swing% = Swings at pitches outside the zone/pitches outside the zone
Z-Swing% = Swings at pitches inside the zone/pitches inside the zone
Swing% = Swings/Pitches
O-Contact% = Number of pitches on which contact was made on pitches outside the zone / Swings on pitches outside the zone
Z-Contact% = Number of pitches on which contact was made on pitches inside the zone / Swings on pitches inside the zone
SwStr% = Swings and misses/Total Pitches
BULLPEN REPORTS from fangraphs.com
This is sorted by SIERA from worst to best over the last 14 days for team’s bullpens!
MAIN SLATE
Stephen Strasburg (10.4k FD) (10.8k DK) (21.4k FD2) vs SF
We have so many options tonight, so let’s try and narrow it down. First off is Strasburg. He comes into this start as a heavy -200 favorite and has scored 40 fanduel points in his last 2 starts. Strasburg hasn’t allowed more than 3 ER in 6 straight starts and his strikeouts are really good. He is close to 30% strikeout rate on the season and has just a 6% walk rate. The Giants have been one of the hotter teams of late but still, have a 22.6% K rate. Offenses can cool down against star pitchers. His home numbers are a little worse than his road numbers, so that may keep a few people off him tonight. Strasburg is a great option tonight to slow down these Giants.
Vince Velasquez (8.8k FD) (8.3k DK) (16.1k FD2) vs MIL
The Brewers were a very hot offense for a while, but have cooled off a bit. Over the L14 vs RHP, the Brewers have a 24% K rate but still have a decent .310 wOBA and 91 wRC+. If we look over the past week, those numbers are way worse, meaning they are cooling way off. They have a 29.7% K rate and just .260 wOBA with a 58 wRC+. Velasquez comes into this start with a 29.2% K rate and a wonderful 3.37 SIERA. He gets hit hard less than 30% and has a career-high 11.9% SwStr%. Vince has had his struggles at home this year, but he is dominant against righties, and the Brewers usually toss 6-7 of them each night. His L/R splits are crazy as he has a .147 lower wOBA, .095 average difference and have been able to strikeout 31.5% of RHH. For me, the more righties the better for Velasquez tonight against the strikeout happy Brewers. With all the pitching options tonight, I will keep him just for tournaments.
J.A. Happ (9.4k FD) (10.4k DK) (20.6k FD2) vs BAL
Another pitcher against the Orioles and they will be almost mainstays in my articles until Baltimore shows they can even hit. He has faced them this season already and was able to rack up 52 fanduel points in that start. Over his last 4 starts, he has scored 61, 40, 48, and 27 fanduel points. Aside from his last start, he has gone 6+ in 3 of his last 4 starts. Baltimore had trouble against Garcia last night, then finally hit off the Jays bullpen. Well, the O’s are still 2nd worst in wRC+ and have a 22% K rate over their L14 vs LHP. They also have a very low .238 wOBA and .056 ISO. Happ is having one of, if not the best season of his career this year and will look to keep it rolling. He has a career-high 30% K rate with an amazing 3.09 SIERA. This is his first season with double-digit swinging strike rates and he’s giving up low contact rates. Happ has struggled with RHH this season, and Baltimore will have 7 or 8 in their lineup tonight, but with how bad Baltimore has been vs lefties, I think Happ is worth the risk in tournaments tonight.
Chris Sale (11.5k FD) (11.1k DK) (21.1k FD2) vs CWS
Compared to the other high priced pitchers tonight, I think Sale will garner the most ownership. He comes in facing his old ball club and they are not very good. They have been striking out a ton against whoever pitches against them (30.9% K rate). A few rough starts have lowered his price and this is right when we jump back on. He has had 2 tough matchups and we here at the DFS Army did call for the Chris Sale fade vs those teams. Tonight is a different story against the White Sox. Despite the struggles in last 2, he has a 34% K rate and a 0.98 WHIP. Walks have been a bit worse for him this year, but I’m not concerned. Sale still has a 2.70 SIERA, 26.2% Hard% and a 15.4% SwStr%, which is a career high. Chicago will likely roll out 7+ RHH tonight, but Sale has been able to keep them in check this year and has a 34% K rate to both sides of the plate. Sale is a great option in all formats tonight.
Trevor Bauer (10.2k FD) (11.8k DK) (23.1k FD2) @ DET
I’m not sure why Bauer is priced up above some of these other guys, but hey maybe it’ll lower his ownership. The Tigers have been pesky of late, but Bauer has success against them this season and over his career. I think Bauer is a bit expensive on DK and FD2, but his fanduel price Is a little more respectable. In 2 starts against Detroit this year, he has thrown 15 innings with 17 K’s and just 2 ER. He has an average of 55 fanduel points against them. His last 4 starts he has seen a bit of an uptick in strikeouts and was able to get 13 against an Astros team that normally doesn’t K that much. Despite being able to absolutely destroy lefties, DET has been AWFUL against RHP in the L14. They have the 3rd lowest wRC+ at 49, with a 22.2% K rate, just .244 wOBA. Their BABIP is low, which could suggest they are getting unlucky, but they still are not producing. Bauer has a career-high 29.6% K rate and a career-best 1.17 WHIP so far this season. His SIERA sits a 3.31 and like usual, he gets hit a bit hard. The Tigers do not scare me much against RHP, and Bauer will look to shut them down again tonight.
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Masahiro Tanaka (8.6k FD) (9.5k DK) (18.5k FD2) @ NYM
Tanaka has been up and down all season, and we know that he can struggle with home runs, but the Mets are one of the worst teams right now. Their BvP is pretty useless to me since Bautista is the only one with more than 10 at-bats against them. The Mets have the 2nd worst wRC+ vs RHP in their L14 and have a 23.3% K rate. There were days last week where the Mets were stacked and folded like a piece of paper. I expect this game will be a solid pitching duel given deGrom on the other side for the Mets. Tanaka has ramped up his strikeouts in his last 2 starts and I hope that is good for signs to come. Before that, he was struggling to get any strikeouts. After a red-hot start, the Mets have been struggling a lot lately and are so hot or cold of late. Their offense has been worse at home this season and their bullpen is one of the worst in the league right now. I think, despite facing deGrom, Tanaka can still get a win tonight if he goes long enough for the Yanks bats to see the Mets bullpen. Since Tanaka is so up and down, I will leave him for tournaments tonight.
Justin Verlander (11.6k FD) (12.4k DK) (24.2k FD2) @ TEX
Verlander is the most expensive pitcher across the board, and he deserves it. He has been pitching out of his mind this season and gets a wonderful matchup tonight. His age 35 season is so far his best yet and he doesn’t look like he is slowing down anytime soon. Verlander comes in with a 31.9% K rate and just 5.2% walk rate with a WHIP of 0.72 and SIERA of 2.95. His flyball tendencies have not really hurt him this year and Texas has been prone to struggles. Cole did well against them last night, and they do have a 27% K rate vs RHP in the L14. He had two tough matchups with Boston and New York his last two starts and now gets the Rangers who he has had success against. The Rangers have had a lot of at-bats against him (246) and are hitting a laughable .187, with a .243 wOBA and .102 ISO. They also have a 34.1% K rate against him. The Rangers do not scare me tonight against Verlander and he is one of my top options today.
Jacob deGrom (10.8k FD) (10.6k DK) (20.2k FD2) vs NYY
Game 1 of the Subway Series and the Mets get to start deGrom against the Yankees. I’ll admit it, I’m a big Yankee homer, but it won’t stop me from recommending pitchers against them when warranted. deGrom has been amazing, and if I were the Yankees front office, I would be working my tail off to try and pull something off to pick up deGrom for the mid-season push. In his last 4 starts, deGrom has not put up less than 46 fanduel points and has gone 7 innings in each of his last 4 starts. His strikeouts are up over the last 4, as he has 42 strikeouts in just 28 innings. Not many of the Yankee hitters have history against deGrom except Stanton, who is 9-22 with 4 HR off him. The Yankees are a bit cold of late and have been striking out more than they have been. deGrom definitely has the upside in this matchup tonight. Since he is facing the Yankees, I think it is a risky cash option, but absolutely LOVE him in tournaments tonight.
Jakob Junis (9k FD) (8.1k DK) (16k FD2) @ OAK
Junis has surprised a lot this year, and I don’t think he will be highly owned tonight against a hot Oakland team. His last start came against these A’s in Kansas City so that does concern me facing a team back to back. He has looked very good all season for the Royals though. He has at least 7 strikeouts in 5 of his last 6 starts and has faced some good hitting teams. On the season he has a 22.8% K rate with just a 1.13 WHIP and an average 3.82 SIERA. He gets hit fairly hard and gives up more flyballs, but he has been able to limit the damage this year. Oakland is a huge park to pitch in that can allow many doubles and triples, but harder to hit HRs there. Actually looking at park factors from ESPN.com, O.Co has the LEAST amount of HR in the league. They are the worst park for home runs but they are above average for doubles. Lefties have been able to do some damage against him, but he has been able to limit the righties a bit more. Surprisingly his road starts are MUCH better than his home starts and below you can see the home/road splits for him.
Given his elevated price tag against a hot offense, I will keep Junis for tournaments tonight.
Caleb Smith (8k FD) (9.1k DK) (17.8k FD2) vs SD
The Padres are very boom or bust lately, and they have been striking out a lot. Smith has a wonderful 29.6% K rate this season but his walks are hurting him. Despite having an 11% walk rate, his WHIP is still respectable at 1.19 and his SIERA sits right where we like it a 3.80. He just faced this Padres team 2 starts ago and was able to rack up 40 fanduel points despite getting just 4 strikeouts. Against LHP, the Padres have a ton of power, but still, have a 24.6% K rate and there are only 3 hitters in their lineup that really scare me. I do think his price is a tad high, but this could make for an intriguing tournament play tonight.
MAIN SLATE RANKINGS
- Justin Verlander (all formats)
- Chris Sale (all formats)
- Stephen Strasburg (all formats)
- Trevor Bauer (all formats)
- Masahiro Tanaka (GPP)
- Jacob deGrom (GPP)
- A. Happ (lean GPP, could be cash viable against BAL)
- Vince Velasquez (GPP)
- Jakob Junis (GPP)
- Caleb Smith (GPP)
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