Welcome to the June 6^th Edition of the MLB Pitching Breakdown for Fanduel, DraftKings, and Fantasydraft!

In case you all didn’t know, my name is Matt, mdellagnese14 on twitter. I am currently a student at Springfield College with a love and passion for sports, mainly baseball.

I was brought to the DFS Army to write pitching articles for all members of the DFSArmy! If you are not a member, join the DFSArmy and use promo code “DFSMATT” to get 10% off your subscription!

I am mostly a Fanduel player, so the content in my articles will be for geared mainly towards Fanduel. However, I will include pricing from all three sites (Fanduel, Draftkings, FantasyDraft). Some plays may be better off for the two pitcher sites and I will mention that when needed about a pitcher.

Pitching is one of the most, if not the most important position in your MLB lineups and selecting the right one will help you tremendously. Go check out the MLB Pitching Strategy article to get my thought process on picking these pitchers each slate!

NOTE: most of the stats I used are from a 14-game sample to the handiness of pitchers. If I reference season numbers, I will mention that!

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Definitions of Stats used in articles via Fangraphs.com

K% (Strikeout Percentage): Frequency with which the pitcher has struck out a batter, calculated as strikeouts divided by total batters faced.

An average K% is 20%, anything above is considered great or elite

BB% (Walk Percentage): Frequency with which the pitcher has issued a walk, calculated as walks divided by total batters faced. Average BB% for pitchers is 7.7%, anything lower is considered great or elite

BABIP (Batting Average on Balls in Play): The rate at which the pitcher allows a hit when the ball is put in play. A BABIP at or near .300 is considered average. EXAMPLE: if a pitcher has a BABIP of .200 it means he could be getting lucky and balls in play are turned into outs if they have a BABIP of .400 he could be getting unlucky on balls in play and they are turning into hits.

xFIP (Expected Fielding Independent Pitching): An estimate of a pitcher’s ERA based on strikeouts, walks/HBP, and fly balls allowed, assuming league average results on balls in play and home run to fly ball ratio. The Lower the xFIP the better. 3.80 is around average.

SIERA (Skill-Interactive ERA): An ERA estimator that attempts to more accurately capture a pitcher’s performance based on strikeouts, walks/HBP, home runs, and batted ball data. The lower the better 3.90 is considered average, so anything below that is great to excellent. Anything about is poor.

Hard% (Hard Contact Percentage): Percentage of hard-hit batted balls. Anything below 30% is considered average or better. the lower Hard% the better, meaning pitchers are giving up more soft contact.

wRC+: A rate statistic that credits a hitter for the value of each outcome rather than treating them all equally. League average is 100, each point above or below that is one percentage point better or worse than league average. wRC+ is a better representation of offense value.

O-Swing% = Swings at pitches outside the zone/pitches outside the zone

Z-Swing%  = Swings at pitches inside the zone/pitches inside the zone

Swing% = Swings/Pitches

O-Contact% = Number of pitches on which contact was made on pitches outside the zone / Swings on pitches outside the zone

Z-Contact%  = Number of pitches on which contact was made on pitches inside the zone / Swings on pitches inside the zone

SwStr% = Swings and misses/Total Pitches

BULLPEN REPORTS FROM FANGRAPHS.COM

EARLY SLATE RANKINGS (FD/DK/FD2)

1. Carlos Carrasco (vs MIL)- dropped 73 fanduel points last start against these Brewers. He had an awful last start and will look to bounce back in a positive matchup today. (ALL FORMATS)
2. Dylan Bundy (@ NYM)- The Mets have been awful of late and we all know the upside of Bundy. He had an “eh” start last time out and still scored 31 fanduel points. The Mets can easily slump and Bundy has elite K upside. (ALL FORMATS)
3. Mike Foltynewicz (@ SD)- Newcomb ran through this lineup last night, and they have been better against LHP. Well, Folty is a RHP and is coming off one of the best starts of his career. Look for him to keep it rolling against an exploitable Padres team. (ALL FORMATS)
4. Tanner Roark (vs TB)- Max destroyed this team last night, Roark will have a good shot at a win. He’s normally consistent and should be good for 30+ fanduel points (ALL FORMATS)
5. Chris Stratton (vs ARI)- Doubt anyone will play Stratton, but they are wrong. For a cheap price, he has been amazing this season. He has 49 and 30 fanduel points in his last 2 starts. He has about 6+ strikeout upside, I would like to see him get through 6 innings today, but it is unlikely as he only has 5 times this season. Stratton is a solid GPP play though as he has 30+ point upside. (GPP)

MAIN SLATE

Caleb Ferguson (5.5k FD) (7.1k DK) (13.8k FD2) @ PIT

Ferguson is making his MLB debut tonight in place of Clayton Kershaw. He starts off min priced on fanduel, but is over 7k already on DraftKings. Ross Stripling did a number on this Pirates team last night, and Ferguson will look to dazzle in his debut. He has only made 1 start in AAA this season, but 8 in AA. Across both this year he has 52 K’s in 47 innings, giving up just 8 earned runs. In his 1 start in AAA he gave up a ton of fly balls, but over his minor league career he averaged a 43.8% groundball rate. There is not too much information out there on Ferguson, but in AA/AAA this year he has been great to both sides of the plate and has elite strikeout stuff. He has just over a 1 WHIP and neither side has hit better than .225 against him this season. He’s definitely a wildcard, but teams can struggle against rookies the first time they see them. Keep in mind though, Dave Roberts sucks and we never know when he will pull the highly touted prospect.

Jon Gray (7.3k FD) (7.5k DK) (14.8k FD2) @ CIN

Jon Gray has elite stuff and has been very good for the Rockies this year. He comes into this start with a 26.2% K rate and low 6.6% walk rate. Per 9 innings, he’s getting 10.5 strikeouts and allowing just 2.63 walks. His WHIP is a tad high and he gives up hard contact, but he has shown upside. He just faced the Reds in Coors and, while allowing 4 ER he still put up 36 fanduel points. He usually gets priced down at Coors but is still cheap tonight. The Reds have been hot of late vs RHP and only have a 19% K rate though. I won’t touch Gray in cash games, but his upside is there for tournaments.

Aaron Nola (9.6k FD) (11.4k DK) (22k FD2) @ CHC

Likely the chalk of the main slate tonight is Nola vs the Cubs. Nola has been amazing this season for the Phillies but comes into this game as an underdog. Likely because the Phillies offense has been shaky of late because he’s been amazing. He has 17 strikeouts in 13.2 innings over his last 2 starts and has scored 51 and 49 fanduel points in those starts. He comes into this start with a 25% K rate and a 0.93 WHIP while allowing just a .198 BAA. His SIERA sits at 3.35 and he’s getting 52.5% groundball rate with only 25.5% Hard%. The Cubs have been pretty good of late, but Nola has been great too. Righties are hitting just .188 against him with a .225 wOBA. Lefties are hitting .207 with a .240 wOBA. The Cubs will likely have 3-4 lefties in their lineup, but the Nola is getting 56% groundballs and allowing just 21% hard contact against LHH this year. He’s getting LHH out and striking out the RHH. Nola is a great option tonight.

Jose Quintana (8.5k FD) (8.8k DK) (16.7k FD2) vs PHI

I was burned for not writing up Quintana last start, and the day I write him up he will probably explode. If that happens, then Quintana just isn’t for me, but the matchup is wonderful. He is so hit or miss this season and seems to flip-flop good and bad starts. He has some strikeout upside with a 22.4% K rate this year. His walks are very high and that puts me off him on sites that take off for hits and walks because his WHIP sits a 1.41 this year. The only reason that I am interested in him tonight is because the Phillies have been so bad. Over the L14 vs LHP, they have the 2^nd worst wRC+ at 48 and a solid 24% K rate. Their wOBA sits a .241 and they have an ISO of .059. They were able to hit off Hendricks last night, but he is a RHP who struggles against LHH, who are the power guys for PHI. This game can either be low scoring or a shootout in my eyes. I think both these pitchers are in consideration tonight, but Quintana will be GPP only for me.

Lance McCullers (8.8k FD) (10.5k DK) (20.5k FD2) vs SEA

Seattle has been on a tear of late and have since taken over first place from the Astros. McCullers will be tasked to cool off this hot offense tonight and he has done it before. He scored 61 fanduel points against them in his start and racked up 11 strikeouts. As a team, the Mariners are hitting just .178 with a .089 ISO and .242 wOBA over 101 at-bats against McCullers. They also have a 38.6% K rate against him too. Lance has a 25.5% K rate on the season with a 3.68 SIERA and 55% groundball rate. He also has been MUCH better at home this year too. See the screenshot below for his home/road split this year. I love McCullers tonight, it is risky against a tough Mariners team, but he has the ability to lock them down again.

Jack Flaherty (7.8k FD) (10.2k DK) (19.4k FD2) vs MIA

I am not sure I really like his price on DK or FD2 tonight, but we cannot ignore how good he has been. Flaherty has been a fine choice for the Cardinals this season and has been very good. He has not allowed more than 3 ER in any start this year and has topped 30 fanduel points in half of his starts. The Marlins don’t really scare me and have been striking out a bit more to RHP over the last 2 weeks (23.3%). That number then jumps up to 24.7% over the last 7 days. Flaherty has a 26.7% K rate this year and his WHIP is just over 1.00 at 1.08. He has been a great spark for the Red Birds and has a 3.46 SIERA across 34.1 innings this year. The Cardinals open this one as a heavy -200 favorite against the Marlins so Flaherty will likely garner ownership tonight. He is allowing just a .266 wOBA against RHH and the Marlins are projected to have 6 of them tonight. Lefties hit him a bit better, but he’s also been better at home this year. We can feel comfortable rolling him out there tonight in tournaments.

Shohei Ohtani (8.6k FD) (11.1k DK) (19.7k FD2) vs KC

Andrew Heaney just 1-hit this Royals team last night, and Ohtani is a better pitcher than him. Aside from his start against the Red Sox this year, Ohtani has been spectacular. He has topped 67 fanduel points and has been over 30 in 5 of his 8 starts this season. Looking at the Royals advanced stats, they look like a tough team to face, but Ohtani has electric stuff. I can see him being the top scoring pitcher on the slate tonight too. He has a 31% K rate so far this year with a 1.08 WHIP and allowing a .195 BAA. He has actually been better against LHH this year and the Royals have some good lefties in their lineup. Ohtani has a better K% against righties, but he isn’t allowing much to either side of the plate. Ohtani is going to be my top cash pitcher tonight as I feel he is safer than the rest.

MAIN SLATE RANKINGS

1. Shohei Ohtani (all formats)
2. Aaron Nola (all formats)
3. Lance McCullers (all formats)
4. Jack Flaherty (lean GPP)
5. Jose Quintana (lean GPP)
6. Jon Gray (GPP)
7. Caleb Ferguson (GPP)

NOTE: I like this slate much more for GPPs, 3-man, and 5-man leagues rather than heavy cash games. I do think the top 3 guys above are viable for cash games, but each one can get hit around too. If you were to play cash games tonight though, use one of the top 3 then use any of the 7 for tournaments.