Welcome to the June 5^th Edition of the MLB Pitching Breakdown for Fanduel, DraftKings, and Fantasydraft!

In case you all didn’t know, my name is Matt, mdellagnese14 on twitter. I am currently a student at Springfield College with a love and passion for sports, mainly baseball.

I was brought to the DFS Army to write pitching articles for all members of the DFSArmy! If you are not a member, join the DFSArmy and use promo code “DFSMATT” to get 10% off your subscription!

I am mostly a Fanduel player, so the content in my articles will be for geared mainly towards Fanduel. However, I will include pricing from all three sites (Fanduel, Draftkings, FantasyDraft). Some plays may be better off for the two pitcher sites and I will mention that when needed about a pitcher.

Pitching is one of the most, if not the most important position in your MLB lineups and selecting the right one will help you tremendously. Go check out the MLB Pitching Strategy article to get my thought process on picking these pitchers each slate!

NOTE: most of the stats I used are from a 14-game sample to the handiness of pitchers. If I reference season numbers, I will mention that!

ALWAYS PAY ATTENTION TO THE WEATHER FROM OUR VERY OWN @DFSWEATHER IN SLACK!!!

Any updates will be given in our VIP Slack Channel! <– click here to see our pricing to get the whole VIP experience!

Definitions of Stats used in articles via Fangraphs.com

K% (Strikeout Percentage): Frequency with which the pitcher has struck out a batter, calculated as strikeouts divided by total batters faced.

An average K% is 20%, anything above is considered great or elite

BB% (Walk Percentage): Frequency with which the pitcher has issued a walk, calculated as walks divided by total batters faced. Average BB% for pitchers is 7.7%, anything lower is considered great or elite

BABIP (Batting Average on Balls in Play): The rate at which the pitcher allows a hit when the ball is put in play. A BABIP at or near .300 is considered average. EXAMPLE: if a pitcher has a BABIP of .200 it means he could be getting lucky and balls in play are turned into outs if they have a BABIP of .400 he could be getting unlucky on balls in play and they are turning into hits.

xFIP (Expected Fielding Independent Pitching): An estimate of a pitcher’s ERA based on strikeouts, walks/HBP, and fly balls allowed, assuming league average results on balls in play and home run to fly ball ratio. The Lower the xFIP the better. 3.80 is around average.

SIERA (Skill-Interactive ERA): An ERA estimator that attempts to more accurately capture a pitcher’s performance based on strikeouts, walks/HBP, home runs, and batted ball data. The lower the better 3.90 is considered average, so anything below that is great to excellent. Anything about is poor.

Hard% (Hard Contact Percentage): Percentage of hard-hit batted balls. Anything below 30% is considered average or better. the lower Hard% the better, meaning pitchers are giving up more soft contact.

wRC+: A rate statistic that credits a hitter for the value of each outcome rather than treating them all equally. League average is 100, each point above or below that is one percentage point better or worse than league average. wRC+ is a better representation of offense value.

O-Swing% = Swings at pitches outside the zone/pitches outside the zone

Z-Swing%  = Swings at pitches inside the zone/pitches inside the zone

Swing% = Swings/Pitches

O-Contact% = Number of pitches on which contact was made on pitches outside the zone / Swings on pitches outside the zone

Z-Contact%  = Number of pitches on which contact was made on pitches inside the zone / Swings on pitches inside the zone

SwStr% = Swings and misses/Total Pitches

BULLPEN REPORTS

These Bullpen Reports are the MLB’s worst Bullpens sorted by Runs, Home Runs, ERA, and SIERA over the last 14 days. This is to help you in your research to see potential bullpens to attack if they are also starting a shaky starter!

MAIN SLATE

Ross Stripling (8.5k FD) (9.6k DK) (18.5k FD2) @ PIT

The Pirates are a team that I do not normally like to pick on, but Wacha shut them down the other day. Stripling has also been amazing since getting the starting nod for the Dodgers. Over the last week, the Pirates do have an average 20% K rate and have been around league average for mostly all categories. Since becoming a full-time starter for the Dodgers, Stripling has been fantastic. Aside from his first start, he has gone 6 innings in 3 of 5 starts, never allowing more than 2 ER. Stripling has also been amazing at getting strikeouts in these starts too. Since starting he hasn’t scored less than 27 fanduel points and was able to get 60 as a high. Ross has an amazing 30% K rate and just 5.6% walk rate on the year. His SIERA is up with the studs at 2.79 and he’s only giving up 23.8% hard contact this year. He’s not as cheap as he was anymore, but I do think with the options tonight he’s a great pivot of the chalkier guys.

Joe Musgrove (7.2k FD) (7.5k DK) (14.8k FD2) vs LAD

You might think, “why do you have the starters from the first game listed against each other?” I do think this game is going to be low scoring and a well-pitched game from both sides. In 2 starts this season he has been simply amazing. He’s allowing just 25% Hard% in those starts with a 57.5% groundball rate. Musgrove throws a FB, SL, CH, Cutter, and Sinker. The Dodgers hit the fastball well. Against sliders, only Turner has higher than a 61% contact rate. They have 6 guys with over 38 whiff%. His changeup profiles well too. Only turner higher than 68% contact. Turner only one with lower than 30% Whiff rate Musgrove’s cutter, Turner again highest contact%, also Pederson is over 80%. Puig at 78%, the rest are around 70%. Whiff rates are lower on his cutter but mostly like 29-30%. decent GB% too. Lastly, his sinker. They hit well (all over 80% contact rate), but also all have over 50% GB rate besides Turner. Negative regression is going to come for Musgrove sooner or later, but I think he still has one more start before that happens. He’s a great pivot off some of the chalkier guys tonight too!

Max Scherzer (12k FD) (13.3k DK) (25.4k FD2) vs TB

The first of the higher owned pitchers tonight. Max gets a wonderful matchup against the Rays tonight. The Rays have been scuffling in the last week after being a bit hot before that. Their K% is up from 20% to 25.9% and their wRC+ drops from 93 down to 76. Max is an elite pitcher and is currently pitching out of his mind. He comes into this start with a 38.7% K rate and just 6% walk rate. His WHIP sits a 0.85 and hitters are hitting just .171 against him. He has one of the lowest SIERA’s in the league at 2.26. Max is very expensive but has a great matchup tonight. He has scored 58 or more fanduel points in 4 of his last 5 starts as well.

Nathan Eovaldi (7.1k FD) (7.1k DK) (13.5k FD2) @ WSH

Just like Musgrove above, Eovaldi is coming off an arm injury. It was Tommy John for Eovaldi, and he looked great in his first start back. He was able to hit 98 on his fastball and his splitter and cutter were spot on. He was limited to just 70 pitches the last start and I assume he will be around the same tonight. Over the past week, the Nationals have been one of the worst teams in the MLB. Against RHP, they have a 47 wRC+, 25.6% K rate, .241 wOBA, and just .196 batting average. All of those rank near the bottom over the past week. Eovaldi’s pitches actually profile very well against the Nationals hitters, like Musgrove above. The Nats only really profile well against his fastball, but if you can’t hit a fastball, you wouldn’t be in the MLB anyway. Only Anthony Rendon has greater than an 80% contact rate against his cutter, and most of the Nationals have over a 25% whiff rate on it. They will have a hard time hitting his splitter too, especially if it’s on point. Their roster is AWFUL against splitters and only Rendon has more than a 71% contact rate against it. They also have very high whiff rates. Lastly, his slider can be lethal. Can you believe that NO ONE (but Soto, in like no at-bats) has higher than a 62% contact rate against Sliders? Well, it is true, and they also almost all have over a 35% whiff rate against the slider. Good Luck Nationals if Eovaldi is on point tonight.

Corey Kluber (11.5k FD) (12.6k DK) (24.7k FD2) vs MIL

Another guy that will likely garner some ownership tonight. Kluber has been amazing this year and has only scored less than 40 fanduel points 3 times all season. He has racked up 10+ strikeouts in 2 of his last 3 starts and has 4 10+ strikeout games this year. The Brewers have cooled off considerably over the last week. They had a 99 wRC+ in the L14, but looking at the L7, it goes down to 59, which is the 2^nd lowest in the MLB. They have a 21.5% K rate in their L7, but Kluber is amazing. He has still been able to get 27.6% K rate on the season and isn’t walking anyone either. He comes in with a 2.85 SIERA and almost 48% groundball rate with an 11.2% SwStr%. Kluber, like Scherzer, is an elite arm and always in play when he toes the rubber for the Indians.

Jason Vargas (6.1k FD) (5k DK) (10.2k FD2) vs BAL

Strict large-field GPP play this evening for Vargas. There are a few things that I do like about him tonight and think he could throw a good game. Vargas has not been throwing a ton of innings just yet, but he gets a plus matchup against Baltimore tonight. Looking at our lineups page, the Orioles projected lineup has just a .299 xwOBA and .131 ISO over their L14 vs LHP. Looking overall, as a team, they have a 22.8% K rate, 41 wRC+, .232 wOBA, and .060 ISO. The lineup is not confirmed yet, but either way, they have been awful of late. The last start, Vargas went just 5 innings with 2 K’s but was good enough for 27 fanduel points at a cheap price. That was against a good Braves team and his matchup now is a tad easier. Vargas is just a dart throw in GPPs, but I do like him a bit tonight. He could be very sneaky.

Sean Manaea (7.7k FD) (7.7k DK) (15.5k FD2) @ TEX

Despite an awful May, Manaea will look to turn it around against the Rangers who he’s had success against. His start against them came in his 2^nd of the season, but he still went 8 innings with 4 K’s and scored 43 fanduel points. Texas is a dangerous team, but there are strikeouts to be had in their lineup. Their projected lineup right now has just a .313 xwOBA over their L14 vs LHP which is not horrible, but it’s not amazing either. Manaea has been pretty solid against RHH this year and has allowed a lower wOBA against them than lefties. The Rangers do profile well against his fastball, but against his change and slider, most of them have below average contact rates and higher whiff rates. I would like to see more strikeouts out of him, but he still has a WHIP under 1.00. I won’t be touching him in cash games tonight, but I do like him for tournaments.

Kyle Hendricks (8k FD) (8.3k DK) (16k FD2) vs PHI

First things first, the Phillies are AWFUL right now. The normal downfall for Hendricks is usually his lack of strikeouts. He has actually been able to get at least 6 in 3 of his last 4 starts. Hendricks now faces the Phillies who have a 31% K rate over the L7 vs RHP. Aside from his last start, he has put up at least 30 fanduel points in 3 of his last 5 starts. He also has 8 of 11 starts with more than 30 fanduel points this season. Hendricks is not normally suited for tournaments because of his lack of strikeouts, but he is normally cash safe. The matchup against the Phillies does bring some upside for Hendricks though. Hendricks will need to keep the ball on the ground, which he does with a 48.3% groundball rate. I can’t imagine him being high owned on such a big slate tonight.

Madison Bumgarner (8.7k FD) (10.1k DK) (19.8k FD2) vs ARI

I’m not usually on pitchers straight off the DL, but its Mad Bum and his price on fanduel is a crime. When healthy, he’s an 11k+ pitcher and they are starting him off under 9k?!? Okay, fanduel. He tossed 8.1 innings and struck out 15 hitters walking just 1 and giving up 3 total hits. He did throw 74 pitches in his most recent start and I would think he will probably be limited a bit tonight. The Diamondbacks are starting to heat up of late and are only striking out 20% of the time to LHP. Paul Goldschmidt has the best numbers of any Dback against Bumgarner with 3 HR and 10 RBI. They do have 161 at-bats against him and are hitting just .224 with a .294 wOBA. If Bumgarner is confirmed with no restrictions tonight, I do think he can pitch a great game. If he happens to be on a pitch limit I will tamper my expectations on him though.

Others I don’t mind playing but are just off my radar tonight. I wouldn’t be surprised if these guys had great games, but the matchups are very tough for all 4 of them.

• James Paxton
• Dallas Keuchel
• Patrick Corbin
• Carlos Martinez

MAIN SLATE RANKINGS

1. Max Scherzer (all formats)
2. Corey Kluber (all formats)
3. Kyle Hendricks (all formats)
4. Ross Stripling (all formats)
5. Madison Bumgarner (GPP, watch his pitch limit though)
6. Joe Musgrove (GPP)
7. Sean Manaea (GPP)
8. Nathan Eovaldi (GPP)
9. Jason Vargas (GPP)