Welcome to the June 5th edition of the MLB Pitching Breakdown for Fanduel, DraftKings, and Fantasydraft!
In case you all didn’t know, my name is Matt, mdellagnese14 on twitter. I am currently a student at Springfield College with a love and passion for sports, mainly baseball.
I was brought to the DFS Army to write pitching articles for all members of the DFSArmy! If you are not a member, join the DFSArmy and use promo code “DFSMATT” to get 10% off your subscription!
I am mostly a Fanduel player, so the content in my articles will be for geared mainly towards Fanduel. However, I will include pricing from all three sites (Fanduel, Draftkings, FantasyDraft). Some plays may be better off for the two pitcher sites and I will mention that when needed about a pitcher.
Pitching is one of the most, if not the most important position in your MLB lineups and selecting the right one will help you tremendously. Go check out the MLB Pitching Strategy article to get my thought process on picking these pitchers each slate!
NOTE: most of the stats I used are from a 14-game sample to the handiness of pitchers. If I reference season numbers, I will mention that!
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Definitions of Stats used in articles via Fangraphs.com
K% (Strikeout Percentage): Frequency with which the pitcher has struck out a batter, calculated as strikeouts divided by total batters faced.
An average K% is 20%, anything above is considered great or elite
BB% (Walk Percentage): Frequency with which the pitcher has issued a walk, calculated as walks divided by total batters faced. Average BB% for pitchers is 7.7%, anything lower is considered great or elite
BABIP (Batting Average on Balls in Play): The rate at which the pitcher allows a hit when the ball is put in play. A BABIP at or near .300 is considered average. EXAMPLE: if a pitcher has a BABIP of .200 it means he could be getting lucky and balls in play are turned into outs if they have a BABIP of .400 he could be getting unlucky on balls in play and they are turning into hits.
xFIP (Expected Fielding Independent Pitching): An estimate of a pitcher’s ERA based on strikeouts, walks/HBP, and fly balls allowed, assuming league average results on balls in play and home run to fly ball ratio. The Lower the xFIP the better. 3.80 is around average.
SIERA (Skill-Interactive ERA): An ERA estimator that attempts to more accurately capture a pitcher’s performance based on strikeouts, walks/HBP, home runs, and batted ball data. The lower the better 3.90 is considered average, so anything below that is great to excellent. Anything about is poor.
Hard% (Hard Contact Percentage): Percentage of hard-hit batted balls. Anything below 30% is considered average or better. the lower Hard% the better, meaning pitchers are giving up more soft contact.
wRC+: A rate statistic that credits a hitter for the value of each outcome rather than treating them all equally. League average is 100, each point above or below that is one percentage point better or worse than league average. wRC+ is a better representation of offense value.
O-Swing% = Swings at pitches outside the zone/pitches outside the zone
Z-Swing% = Swings at pitches inside the zone/pitches inside the zone
Swing% = Swings/Pitches
O-Contact% = Number of pitches on which contact was made on pitches outside the zone / Swings on pitches outside the zone
Z-Contact% = Number of pitches on which contact was made on pitches inside the zone / Swings on pitches inside the zone
SwStr% = Swings and misses/Total Pitches
MAIN SLATE
Danny Duffy (7k FD) (4.7k DK) (9k FD2) @ LAA
Can we all just take a second to see his price on DK?! 4.7k compared to 7k on fanduel?! That is just absurd. Duffy isn’t really THAT good, but he’s showed all of us up his last two starts with decent outings. He has faced two decent hitting teams in his last two starts too and has gotten 31 and 45 fanduel points. I do not normally like to pick on the Angels, but they have been pretty bad against LHP in their L14. They rank 3rd WORST wRC+ with 55 and actually have been striking out a bit at 22.6%. They also come in with just a .244 wOBA. One thing I am concerned about is the .177 BABIP, so they will start to turn it around at some point, they just are not finding the holes. This slate is very ugly, do not play cash on it. Duffy could be higher owned because of his last 2 starts, but maybe that’s all he needed to get his season rolling.
Domingo Germán (6.6k FD) (8.7k DK) (17k DK) @ DET
The second game of the day-night doubleheader for these teams and German will toss for the Yanks. German has shown us elite strikeout upside this season, but he is struggling with his walks and control. The Tigers could roll out a funky lineup for game 2 and it could be beneficial for Germán. The Yankees should be able to tee off on Mike Fiers tonight so it could lead to a win IF Germán is able to actually go 5 innings. I absolutely love his 27.5% K rate, but his 11.4% walk rate is hurting him. Looking at his advanced stats, he has just a 3.75 SIERA and getting hit hard 34.4% of the time, which is a bit high, but there are worse. Germán has an elite 13.8% SwStr% and is getting 34.1% of the people to swing on pitches outside the zone. I would like to see his zone% go up a bit as its about 5% below the average, but he has elite upside in this matchup tonight.
Julio Teheran (7.6k FD) (9.8k DK) (18.8k FD2) @ SD
I do have a feeling Teheran is going to be the chalk tonight, and rightfully so. He has the best matchup across the board against the Padres in a big park. Coming into this game, the Padres have a 23.7% K rate over their L14 and low .119 ISO. They have not been as bad as we are used to, but they still do not scare me much. Teheran is not a big strikeout guy but he has been able to limit hitters getting on base this year. His WHIP is down to 1.22 compared to 1.37 last year and has a 79% LOB rate. Teheran has massive home/road splits over the last few years too. *Look below at his splits* Looking at our lineups page, the Padres projected lineup has just a .313 xwOBA, .099 ISO, and almost 25% strikeout rate over their L14 days. They can still surprise us at any point, and it isn’t like Teheran is lights out. I don’t think we NEED to play him, but I do like the spot for him tonight.
Zack Godley (8.5k FD) (10.2k DK) (19.4k FD2) @ SF
Godley is going to garner a ton of ownership tonight as well. The Giants have not been rolling over of late and can still be dangerous. I believe the Diamondbacks are going to destroy Derek Holland early and the Giants will be forced to throw a ton of guys from their bullpen. The Giants rank middle of the pack in wRC+ but they do have a nice 24.3% K rate to RHP. Their projected starting lineup has an average DFSA Grade of just 58.44 which is the lowest on the slate tonight. If you are a BvP person, don’t look at it, because the Giants do have some good numbers (granted just 47 at-bats). Godley has been up and down all season, but bounced back his last start with 6 innings and K’s’s with 2 ER. Good enough for 43 fanduel points against the Reds. His walks are hurting him this year too as he is allowing 4.5 walks per 9, but he is getting 52% groundballs as well. Godley has been struggling on the road this season, but the slate is thin and he does have some upside.
Bullpen Pitchers who MIGHT see action tonight (note, nothing in this section will be firm, but maybe on DK or FD2 for an SP2 you could use one of these in tournaments and hope they toss a few innings)
- J. Cole (NYY) only pitcher to not pitch since May 28th (7 days), could see some innings tonight if Germán struggles early.
- Chad Green (NYY) has pitched 2 and 3 days ago, but had yesterday off and didn’t throw in game 1 of this DH. Green can go a couple of innings if needed and has elite K upside too
- Adam Warren (NYY) just got reinstated from the DL and could be called upon to throw too. He could be a bit rusty so may only toss an inning though.
- Trevor Oaks (KC) if Duffy struggles, Oaks is a 25-year old who was called up from AAA last week and only threw on May 30th. The rest of the pen has thrown a good amount of pitches over the last week.
- Ty Blach (SF) If Holland struggles (which I see happening) Blach may be called on to eat up innings. He just got moved into a bullpen roll last week, and is rested.
NOTE THESE BULLPEN GUYS ARE VERY RISKY AND I DO NOT RECOMMEND USING ALL OF THE AS SP2. YOU DO NOT HAVE TO USE ANY OF THEM. IT IS JUST IF YOU WANT TO GET A LITTLE FUNKY TONIGHT!
MAIN SLATE RANKINGS
NO RANKINGS FOR ME TODAY. I DO THINK EVERY PITCHER IS IN PLAY AND THIS MAKES FOR A SOLID GPP/MME SLATE TONIGHT. THESE ARE JUST MY FAVORITE ONES OF THE BUNCH. FEEL FREE TO HAVE A SMALL SHARE OF ALL THE PITCHERS THOUGH.
