Welcome to the June 3rd, Sunday Funday edition of the MLB Pitching Breakdown for Fanduel, DraftKings, and Fantasydraft!
In case you all didn’t know, my name is Matt, mdellagnese14 on twitter. I am currently a student at Springfield College with a love and passion for sports, mainly baseball.
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I am mostly a Fanduel player, so the content in my articles will be for geared mainly towards Fanduel. However, I will include pricing from all three sites (Fanduel, Draftkings, FantasyDraft). Some plays may be better off for the two pitcher sites and I will mention that when needed about a pitcher.
Pitching is one of the most, if not the most important position in your MLB lineups and selecting the right one will help you tremendously. Go check out the MLB Pitching Strategy article to get my thought process on picking these pitchers each slate!
NOTE: most of the stats I used are from a 14-game sample to the handiness of pitchers. If I reference season numbers, I will mention that!
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Definitions of Stats used in articles via Fangraphs.com
K% (Strikeout Percentage): Frequency with which the pitcher has struck out a batter, calculated as strikeouts divided by total batters faced.
An average K% is 20%, anything above is considered great or elite
BB% (Walk Percentage): Frequency with which the pitcher has issued a walk, calculated as walks divided by total batters faced. Average BB% for pitchers is 7.7%, anything lower is considered great or elite
BABIP (Batting Average on Balls in Play): The rate at which the pitcher allows a hit when the ball is put in play. A BABIP at or near .300 is considered average. EXAMPLE: if a pitcher has a BABIP of .200 it means he could be getting lucky and balls in play are turned into outs if they have a BABIP of .400 he could be getting unlucky on balls in play and they are turning into hits.
xFIP (Expected Fielding Independent Pitching): An estimate of a pitcher’s ERA based on strikeouts, walks/HBP, and fly balls allowed, assuming league average results on balls in play and home run to fly ball ratio. The Lower the xFIP the better. 3.80 is around average.
SIERA (Skill-Interactive ERA): An ERA estimator that attempts to more accurately capture a pitcher’s performance based on strikeouts, walks/HBP, home runs, and batted ball data. The lower the better 3.90 is considered average, so anything below that is great to excellent. Anything about is poor.
Hard% (Hard Contact Percentage): Percentage of hard-hit batted balls. Anything below 30% is considered average or better. the lower Hard% the better, meaning pitchers are giving up more soft contact.
wRC+: A rate statistic that credits a hitter for the value of each outcome rather than treating them all equally. League average is 100, each point above or below that is one percentage point better or worse than league average. wRC+ is a better representation of offense value.
O-Swing% = Swings at pitches outside the zone/pitches outside the zone
Z-Swing% = Swings at pitches inside the zone/pitches inside the zone
Swing% = Swings/Pitches
O-Contact% = Number of pitches on which contact was made on pitches outside the zone / Swings on pitches outside the zone
Z-Contact% = Number of pitches on which contact was made on pitches inside the zone / Swings on pitches inside the zone
SwStr% = Swings and misses/Total Pitches
MAIN SLATE
Steven Matz (6.4k FD) (6.9k DK) (13.9k FD2) vs CHC
I am never a big fan of Matz, but with the watered down Cubs lineup, and the very cheap price, I am intrigued. He hasn’t had the best season but has had some bright spots. He sports a 21% K rate this season which is okay, but his walk rate is WAY too high for me. The thing that helps him is his 51% GB rate on the season. Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, and Zobrist all have had some solid numbers against Matz, and luckily for him, none of the 3 are starting today. He has struggled at home this season, but that Cubs lineup has some holes and Matz is cheap enough to afford all the bats you want. He isn’t high on my list, but I think he’s worth a shot.
Jon Lester (8.4k FD) (10.4k DK) (20.4k FD2) @ NYM
That Mets lineup is awful looking this afternoon and Lester is going to be the chalk on the main slate this afternoon. Lester has been very consistent this year and has put up at least 30 fanduel points in 7 of his 11 starts this year. The Mets don’t have any amazing BvP, Bautista has the best power numbers with 5 HR, but has seen him 61 times. Lester’s K numbers are a bit down this year (3% less than last year) but this lineup is awful. They have 6 lefties in their lineup for whatever reason and I would be surprised if Lester doesn’t pitch a gem today. Lester’s advanced stats don’t look that amazing as he’s allowed a .300 wOBA to both sides of the plate and just a 20% K rate to them as well. If the Mets score more than 2 runs I will be shocked today. Lester is going to be very chalky and should have a good game.
Michael Fulmer (7.5k FD) (7.2k DK) (14.8k FD2) vs TOR
Not a show name by any means, but Fulmer is consistent this year. Aside from his 2 very bad starts this year, he has been constantly putting up 30+ fanduel points. He is not a big strikeout guy but has been getting 5-7 in his recent starts. The Blue Jays are starting off with 4 lefties in their lineup, followed up all RHH. Fulmer can struggle against lefties, but the Jays have been struggling of late. In their L14 vs RHP, they have a 25% K rate with a 70 wRC+ which ranks 2nd lowest. Pitching is not the best on this main slate today and we know Lester is going to be the chalk. He has a bit high of a WHIP, so that hurts his value on DK and FD2, but on fanduel, he’s still a solid play for his price. Toronto can light people up, but Fulmer has found a way to keep putting up around 30 fanduel points. He’s never a pretty play, but he normally is a decent one and won’t kill you.
Jeremy Hellickson (6.6k FD) (7.5k DK) (14.9k FD2) @ ATL
Normally I don’t like to pick on the Braves, but Hellickson has been good this year and no one will ever want to play him. He doesn’t normally go 6 innings, so that hurts his upside, but he hasn’t gotten blown up this year. He has only given up more than 2 ER 1 time this year and has been around 25+ fanduel points. Pitching in Atlanta will not be easy for Hellickson today but he’s been solid this season. He has not had less than 24 fanduel points in his last 5 starts and Atlanta does not have the best history against him. Markakis has the most at-bats against him (53) and the team totals 111 at-bats. As a team, they have just a .153 average against him with a .212 wOBA. This season, Hellickson is giving up just a .272 wOBA and .221 average. The Braves do not normally strikeout a ton, but over their L14 vs RHP they do have a 24.7% K rate and below average wRC+. For total numbers, they have the 7th most strikeouts vs RHP in the MLB. No one will be on Hellickson today and I like him in tournaments.
Mike Clevinger (9.1k FD) (11.1k DK) (21.4k FD2) @ MIN
Clevinger, like Gibson, has some massive home/road splits. When Gibson is awful at home, Clevinger is amazing on the road. All signs are pointing to the Indians being able to tee off on Gibson tonight. Here are Clevinger’s home/road splits from FanGraphs.
He has shown that he has the upside to get 50 fanduel points but can also struggle with his command at times. He will normally sit around 5-7 strikeouts but can walk 3-4 hitters too. The Twins have a 23% K rate to RHP in the L14 and their other stats are from when they had a couple games where they scored a ton of runs. I like Clevinger today in tournaments, but he’s risky in cash games.
Nick Kingham (8.1k FD) (8.2k DK) (16.2k FD2) @ STL
Kingham has been very good since getting called up for the Pirates. He has shown the strikeout upside and has a 26% K rate on the season and just a 1.00 WHIP. He’s pitching to a 3.28 SIERA but has given up some hard contact (36.4%). He was able to dominate the Cards in his big league debut so that I am a bit worried they could hit him today after seeing him already. The Cardinals do have a 23.5% K rate over their L14 and below average wRC+ of 78. They have a low ISO (.119) but their wOBA is about average (.285). The Cardinals have just 2 lefties in their lineup and Kingham has been amazing to RHH so far. He has allowed just a .254 wOBA and .178 average against RHH this season. Righties are striking out 33.3% of the time against him and he has a WHIP less than 1.00 against them. Kingham is a great prospect and will look to keep the Bucs rolling today.
MAIN SLATE RANKINGS
- Jon Lester (all formats)
- Nick Kingham (all formats)
- Mike Clevinger (lean GPP)
- Michael Fulmer (GPP)
- Jeremy Hellickson (GPP)
- Steven Matz (GPP)
