Welcome to the June 2nd edition of the MLB Pitching Breakdown for Fanduel, DraftKings, and Fantasydraft!

In case you all didn’t know, my name is Matt, mdellagnese14 on twitter. I am currently a student at Springfield College with a love and passion for sports, mainly baseball.

I was brought to the DFS Army to write pitching articles for all members of the DFSArmy! If you are not a member, join the DFSArmy and use promo code “DFSMATT” to get 10% off your subscription!

I am mostly a Fanduel player, so the content in my articles will be for geared mainly towards Fanduel. However, I will include pricing from all three sites (Fanduel, Draftkings, FantasyDraft). Some plays may be better off for the two pitcher sites and I will mention that when needed about a pitcher.

Pitching is one of the most, if not the most important position in your MLB lineups and selecting the right one will help you tremendously. Go check out the MLB Pitching Strategy article to get my thought process on picking these pitchers each slate!

NOTE: most of the stats I used are from a 14-game sample to the handiness of pitchers. If I reference season numbers, I will mention that!

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Definitions of Stats used in articles via Fangraphs.com

K% (Strikeout Percentage): Frequency with which the pitcher has struck out a batter, calculated as strikeouts divided by total batters faced.

An average K% is 20%, anything above is considered great or elite

BB% (Walk Percentage): Frequency with which the pitcher has issued a walk, calculated as walks divided by total batters faced. Average BB% for pitchers is 7.7%, anything lower is considered great or elite

BABIP (Batting Average on Balls in Play): The rate at which the pitcher allows a hit when the ball is put in play. A BABIP at or near .300 is considered average. EXAMPLE: if a pitcher has a BABIP of .200 it means he could be getting lucky and balls in play are turned into outs if they have a BABIP of .400 he could be getting unlucky on balls in play and they are turning into hits.

xFIP (Expected Fielding Independent Pitching): An estimate of a pitcher’s ERA based on strikeouts, walks/HBP, and fly balls allowed, assuming league average results on balls in play and home run to fly ball ratio. The Lower the xFIP the better. 3.80 is around average.

SIERA (Skill-Interactive ERA): An ERA estimator that attempts to more accurately capture a pitcher’s performance based on strikeouts, walks/HBP, home runs, and batted ball data. The lower the better 3.90 is considered average, so anything below that is great to excellent. Anything about is poor.

Hard% (Hard Contact Percentage): Percentage of hard-hit batted balls. Anything below 30% is considered average or better. the lower Hard% the better, meaning pitchers are giving up more soft contact.

wRC+: A rate statistic that credits a hitter for the value of each outcome rather than treating them all equally. League average is 100, each point above or below that is one percentage point better or worse than league average. wRC+ is a better representation of offense value.

O-Swing% = Swings at pitches outside the zone/pitches outside the zone

Z-Swing%  = Swings at pitches inside the zone/pitches inside the zone

Swing% = Swings/Pitches

O-Contact% = Number of pitches on which contact was made on pitches outside the zone / Swings on pitches outside the zone

Z-Contact%  = Number of pitches on which contact was made on pitches inside the zone / Swings on pitches inside the zone

SwStr% = Swings and misses/Total Pitches

MAIN SLATE

Walker Buehler (8.6k FD) (6.4k DK) (12.9k FD2) @ COL

A rookie, at Coors Field, is never a great option, but Buehler is different. Buehler has done nothing but impress in his first 7 MLB starts and has not scored fewer than 24 fanduel points. I’m not a fan of his price on fanduel, but absolutely love his price on DK and FD2 tonight. He already faced them once, but that was in his home park where he went 7 with 6 K’s scoring 40 fanduel points. On this young season, he’s gotten a 30% K rate and has a WHIP of just 0.90 with a SIERA of 2.75. He’s doing everything we want and more at such a young age. The Rockies are always a dangerous team at home, but Buehler has the stuff to lock them down again even in Coors. I love Buehler’s upside in this matchup and his price on DK/FD2 is just baffling.

Justin Verlander (11.2k FD) (12.1k DK) (23.3k FD2) vs BOS

I was not on either pitcher yesterday from this game, but unlike Cole, Verlander is still on an upward trend. He has yet to slow down this year and has rolled off at least 40 fanduel points in EVERY start except 1 ALL season. That is 11 starts out of 12 with more than 40 fanduel points. Verlander also always goes deep into games and has always been an innings eater. He has yet to slow down and gets to face this Boston team without their hottest hitter in Mookie Betts. He still has a career-high 32% K rate and career-low 5% walk rate on the season with a 0.71 WHIP and pitching to a 2.91 SIERA. Verlander’s flyball tendencies have yet to hurt him this year which is always a good sign. He has been virtually lights out all season, but at home, he is allowing just a .201 wOBA, .140 average and is getting a 39.3% K rate at home while walking just about no one. Mitch Moreland has the best BvP against Verlander, and we know the Sox are a dangerous team, but I like for Verlander to continue his dominance this year in a tough matchup vs the Sox.

Jacob deGrom (10.6k FD) (11.5k DK) (22.2k FD2) vs CHC

This one could have some weather complications, so make sure you really listen to Mark in slack this afternoon. If all is good, I love deGrom tonight against a hot cubs team. deGrom has been the one bright spot for the Mets all season and will look to continue his amazing start here. He owns a 32.8% K rate this season with a WHIP just over 1.00 at 1.01. The Cubs have been one of the better teams against RHP of late, but deGrom doesn’t get hit hard at all and can get about 44% groundballs. When pitching at home, deGrom is almost unhittable. He has a .193 BAA and .208 wOBA allowing just 1 HR over 31 innings. The total of this game is VERY low, and Vegas doesn’t think either offense will score much. The Mets are just horrible right now, and the Cubs are facing deGrom. He does come at a nice discount from Verlander, but the weather could make him a risky play tonight. He has been phenomenal in his last 3 starts scoring 67, 49, and 46 fanduel points. Look for deGrom to keep it rolling tonight against the Cubs.

Vince Velasquez (8.4k FD) (9.4k DK) (18.1k FD2) @ SF

Vince is becoming one of my favorite pitchers and he has electric stuff. He has a wonderful 28% K rate this season and a good 3.52 SIERA with 28% Hard%. Velasquez has faced this Giants team this season already and went out and toss 6 innings with 12 strikeouts. If VV gives up some runs, he normally can neutralize them with his strikeout ability. The Giants have been heating up of late, but any pitcher can have a good game. Velasquez gets to pitch in a pitcher-friendly park and has already fanned 12 of them in his last start against them. Despite not being able to go 5 innings in his start vs ATL, he still has at least fanduel points in 4 of his last 5 starts with a 55 against the Giants. The Giants will likely roll out 3 lefties, and those are the only ones that concern me as VV has had his troubles against lefties. He has allowed a .396 wOBA to LHH opposed to a .236 to RHH. If he can navigate the lefties, he should be in line for another solid outing tonight.

Andrew Suarez (6.5k FD) (4.8k DK) (9.5k FD2) vs PHI

First off, Suarez is WAY too cheap tonight. Especially on DK and FD2. He makes for an EXCELLENT SP2 in tournaments, and against the Phillies, I would even consider him in cash games over on the 2 pitcher sites. Suarez has been fairly solid for the Giants this year with a 24% K rate and just 5% walk rate. He has a respectable 3.50 SIER in 36.2 innings of work but does get hit very hard. The Phillies have not seen Suarez yet, and they could be in trouble tonight. Philly holds the 2^nd worst wRC+ against LHP in their L14, and the highest K% at 27%. They have a wOBA of just .255 and batting average of .218. So far, RHH have destroyed him, and the Phillies will have a good number of them tonight, but they have been ice cold against LHP over the last two weeks and I think Suarez can surprise people tonight. He was able to score 27 fanduel points at Coors Field and now gets a much better park to pitch in. I love him for a low owned tournament option tonight.

Garrett Richards (8k FD) (7.1k DK) (13.7k FD2) vs TEX

Texas has been a team to pick on when they are on the road just because of their high strikeout rates. Richards has been very shaky this year, but the important thing is he has been healthy *knock on wood*. The Rangers own a 24.5% K rate to RHP over the L14, and over the L7 it goes up a bit to 25%. They are always a boom or bust team. When he has rough outings it is because he is walking way too many hitters. When he is on though, he can be lights out and has shown it a few times this season. He has been striking out a ton of hitters this year with a 25.6% K rate, but again, his walks are the problem. For that, I think he is too risky to use in cash games, but his GB ability and K ability have him in consideration in tournaments against a free-swinging Rangers team.

Zack Greinke (9.1k FD) (10.7k DK) (20.6k FD2) vs MIA

I’m not usually big on rolling out Greinke because he’s just been “meh” this year. I do have interest in him tonight though against the Marlins. If you are a BvP guy or girl, don’t look at it, because they do have success against Greinke. What intrigues me is the Marlins actually have the 6^th highest K% in the last week against RHP at 25.3%. They still hit with virtually no power, but have been striking out a lot more than usual. Zack has been back in forth with high then middle of the road strikeout games. If that trend continues, today will be a higher K game for him. Since pitching for Arizona, he has been much better at home than on the road. This season is no different. Here is his Home/Away splits for this season.

Grienke has been a consistent 30+ fanduel point scorer this year, and for pitching, we do love those guaranteed points from our starter. Grienke will go out here tonight and get another 30+ point game for us against the Marlins team who is starting to struggle again like they should.

 

MAIN SLATE RANKINGS

1. Justin Verlander (all formats)
2. Jacob deGrom (all formats, watch weather)
3. Zack Greinke (all formats)
4. Vince Velasquez (lean GPP)
5. Garrett Richards (GPP)
6. Andrew Suarez (GPP)
7. Walker Buehler (GPP)