Welcome to the June 1st edition of MLB Pitching Breakdown for Fanduel, DraftKings, and Fantasydraft!

In case you all didn’t know, my name is Matt, mdellagnese14 on twitter. I am currently a student at Springfield College with a love and passion for sports, mainly baseball.

I was brought to the DFS Army to write pitching articles for all members of the DFSArmy! If you are not a member, join the DFSArmy and use promo code “DFSMATT” to get 10% off your subscription!

I am mostly a Fanduel player, so the content in my articles will be for geared mainly towards Fanduel. However, I will include pricing from all three sites (Fanduel, Draftkings, FantasyDraft). Some plays may be better off for the two pitcher sites and I will mention that when needed about a pitcher.

Pitching is one of the most, if not the most important position in your MLB lineups and selecting the right one will help you tremendously. Go check out the MLB Pitching Strategy article to get my thought process on picking these pitchers each slate!

NOTE: most of the stats I used are from a 14-game sample to the handiness of pitchers. If I reference season numbers, I will mention that!

ALWAYS PAY ATTENTION TO THE WEATHER FROM OUR VERY OWN @DFSWEATHER IN SLACK!!!

Any updates will be given in our VIP Slack Channel! <– click here to see our pricing to get the whole VIP experience!

Definitions of Stats used in articles via Fangraphs.com

K% (Strikeout Percentage): Frequency with which the pitcher has struck out a batter, calculated as strikeouts divided by total batters faced.

An average K% is 20%, anything above is considered great or elite

BB% (Walk Percentage): Frequency with which the pitcher has issued a walk, calculated as walks divided by total batters faced. Average BB% for pitchers is 7.7%, anything lower is considered great or elite

BABIP (Batting Average on Balls in Play): The rate at which the pitcher allows a hit when the ball is put in play. A BABIP at or near .300 is considered average. EXAMPLE: if a pitcher has a BABIP of .200 it means he could be getting lucky and balls in play are turned into outs if they have a BABIP of .400 he could be getting unlucky on balls in play and they are turning into hits.

xFIP (Expected Fielding Independent Pitching): An estimate of a pitcher’s ERA based on strikeouts, walks/HBP, and fly balls allowed, assuming league average results on balls in play and home run to fly ball ratio. The Lower the xFIP the better. 3.80 is around average.

SIERA (Skill-Interactive ERA): An ERA estimator that attempts to more accurately capture a pitcher’s performance based on strikeouts, walks/HBP, home runs, and batted ball data. The lower the better 3.90 is considered average, so anything below that is great to excellent. Anything about is poor.

Hard% (Hard Contact Percentage): Percentage of hard-hit batted balls. Anything below 30% is considered average or better. the lower Hard% the better, meaning pitchers are giving up more soft contact.

wRC+: A rate statistic that credits a hitter for the value of each outcome rather than treating them all equally. League average is 100, each point above or below that is one percentage point better or worse than league average. wRC+ is a better representation of offense value.

O-Swing% = Swings at pitches outside the zone/pitches outside the zone

Z-Swing%  = Swings at pitches inside the zone/pitches inside the zone

Swing% = Swings/Pitches

O-Contact% = Number of pitches on which contact was made on pitches outside the zone / Swings on pitches outside the zone

Z-Contact%  = Number of pitches on which contact was made on pitches inside the zone / Swings on pitches inside the zone

SwStr% = Swings and misses/Total Pitches

Bullpen Report

Here I will post graphs from fangraphs.com of the worst bullpens over the last 14 days in terms of earned runs!

Below are the Bullpens with the worst SIERA’s over the L14 days, again from fangraphs.com!

MAIN SLATE

Sonny Gray (7.3k FD) (5.8k DK) (11.3k FD2) @ BAL

Definitely did not think Gray would make the list today, but something has to give here. Baltimore has been awful of late, and even though the weather here is not ideal for pitchers I am intrigued. Looking at Baltimore’s hitters, Machado and Jones are the two that scare me the most against Gray’s pitches. No one else has really had a ton of success against them. Baltimore has not gotten any better against RHP in the L14 and still have a 61 wRC+ with a 27.7% K rate. They are hitting for virtually no power and have a .263 wOBA too. Gray has been horrible all season, but this is the perfect opponent right now to turn it around. Last time he faced them he did get us 31 fanduel points and that is perfect for his price now. We cannot trust Gray in cash, but I wouldn’t totally cross him off if you are playing multiple lineups for tournaments. Despite having an awful last start, he still was able to get 7 strikeouts. There are strikeouts to be had in the Baltimore lineup every night.

Chase Anderson (6.5k FD) (6.5k DK) (12.7k FD2) @ CWS

The White Sox are a team that we LOVE to pick on. They have been heating up a little in their L14, but their strikeout rate is still sky high. They have the most amount of strikeouts in their L14 in the MLB with 128. Despite struggling in his last start, he should bounce back here tonight. When on, Anderson is good for about 30 fanduel points and has even topped 41 this season. Before getting sick and missing a few starts, Anderson was a mid $7k to $8k pitcher on fanduel, now he’s just 6.5k. He has seen a decreased K% this year and increased walk rate this year though which is concerning. Statcast data on Anderson this year shows just a 27.4% Hard Hit % with an 85 mph exit velocity, which are lows for him. His xwOBA is quite high though. The White Sox have been running out more of a balanced lineup, rather than all righties that we have seen a lot of the year. Luckily for Anderson, this game is on the road where he has had MUCH more success. He has just a .237 wOBA on the road compared to a .409 at home. His ERA is also 2.19 on the road and 6.23 at home. I think there is some risk here, but the White Sox are still not doing all that much of late and Anderson won’t be under 7k for very long.

Carlos Carrasco (9.4k FD) (10.7k DK) (20.8k FD2) @ MIN

The starters for the Indians have been doing just fine, it is the bullpen that has been blowing up all the games. The last two nights the Twins have gone bonkers off the Indians bullpen and Carrasco will need to go deep into this game for them to rest some of those arms. He has had success against them already this year when he went 7 innings with 7 K’s good for 46 fanduel points. He has a tendency to give up some runs, but for the most part, has had some K’s to back that up and put up a respectable night. He’s faced 3 straight opponents who do not really strike out a lot and luckily for him, the Twins have a 23.4% K rate in their L14. Carrasco on the season has a 24.4% K rate and just 5.5% walk rate with a 3.54 SIERA. He has been getting hit hard this year but has pitched fairly well. He does have a 13% SwStr rate and has been getting a 35.5% O-Swing% too. Over 112 at-bats, the Twins have just a .214 average with a 31% strikeout rate against Carrasco. I think he’s fairly safe tonight as long as the bullpen doesn’t blow it.

Jose Berrios (9.1k FD) (9.1k DK) (17.8k FD2) vs CLE

Home/Road splits are a major factor for a handful of pitchers, and Berrios is one of them. First, I will start with his overall numbers this year. He has a 24.7% K rate and just 4.8% walk rate. Berrios is also allowing hitters to hit just .205 while having a WHIP at 0.95. Despite having a few rough games, he still has a 3.46 SIERA and giving just 27.8% Hard%. Cleveland has been very hot of late, but Berrios is the type of pitcher who can shut anyone down. He has had success against the Tribe and even scored 40 fanduel points against them already this year. His last 3 starts have been much better than his previous 3. He has scored 59, 55, and 44 fanduel points while getting 10, 9, and 8 strikeouts in those games vs some tougher opponents. This won’t come any easier for Berrios tonight, but he does have some BvP on his side. Across 73 at-bats, the Indians have just a .151 average and .158 wOBA. Granted, only 3 guys have more than 10 at-bats, but it is still something. Below are the photos from fangraphs.com showing Berrios home/road splits. For these reasons and his short success against them, I love Berrios in tournaments tonight.

 

Frankie Montas (7.2k FD) (7.1k DK) (13.8k FD2) @ KC

Pure GPP play for me tonight, but I don’t think many people will be on him, and I like the upside he brings in this matchup. He struggled in the Spring, but had a wonderful game against the Diamondbacks in last time out, earning him another start. Over their L14 vs RHP, the Royals have a 21.8% K rate with .654 OPS, (on-base+slugging) which ranks near the bottom in the MLB in this span. They have the 6^th lowest wRC+ also a low .112 ISO in that span. He has struggled in AAA this year, so there is some concern there, but he’s been more of a groundball pitcher over his minors/major career. Before this year he spent time with the White Sox and Dodgers in 2015-2016 and he had a 30% K rate or higher in his MLB stint and then minors with the Dodgers. I see some upside in Montas tonight and little to no ownership in tournaments. Definitely, a good play if you are MME’ing.

Jaime Barria (6.8k FD) (9.3k DK) (17.7k FD2) vs TEX

One of our late night hammer games features the young right-hander from the Angels. I’m not sure why he is priced so low on fanduel, but I don’t think he’s very playable on the other two sites. He really has had just 1 bad outing this year vs the Giants. Other than that he hasn’t had less than 20 fanduel points, and has scored 43 twice, once in Colorado and the other against a very good Houston team. The thing I love about this matchup is the Rangers hit RHP usually fairly good and with power, but there still are strikeouts to be had in their lineup. They also are playing in a bigger stadium than Texas so that is on Barria’s side as well this evening. The Angels are also facing Bartolo Colon, so Barria should have a decent chance at getting a win tonight. So far in the MLB, he has mirrored his minor league numbers since being drafted. Getting about 7 K/9 and still walking around 2 per 9. He doesn’t have the best K%, but still has an 11.8% SwStr rate and is getting 38.4% O-Swing% on the season. Barria has upside in this matchup, but I do like him much more on fanduel tonight.

Nick Pivetta (8.2k FD) (10k DK) (19.3k FD2) @ SF

Finally, the sides have him priced up to where he should be. Pivetta has been on a tear of late and has faced this Giants team already this year. In his last 4 starts, he hasn’t had less than 7 strikeouts and hasn’t given up more than 2 ER in a start. These are his last 4 fanduel game logs: 30, 52, 61, and 42. These are GREAT numbers for his price. Pivetta is becoming a great right-hander to follow Aaron Nola in the Phillies rotation. He has a 28.8% K rate this season and just a 6% walk rate. Nick only has a 1.09 WHIP and is stranding almost 76% of hitters he allows on base. He has a SIERA of just 3.15 and is only allowing 27% hard contact this year. The Giants have been decent of late, but still, hold a 24.5% K rate against RHP in their L14. Lefties are giving Pivetta fits this year, and the Giants are likely to roll out at least 3 in their lineup tonight. If Pivetta can get around those 3, I think he has a strong game in a very pitcher-friendly ballpark. Remember folks, don’t forget about the late night hammers!

MAIN SLATE RANKINGS

1. Carlos Carrasco (all formats)
2. Jose Berrios (lean GPP)
3. Nick Pivetta (all formats)
4. Chase Anderson (lean GPP)
5. Jaime Barria (GPP)
6. Sonny Gray (GPP)
7. Frankie Montas (GPP)

You might be thinking, “No Sale or Cole?” There is a reason for that. I don’t like their matchups against each other as both teams have been hot vs the hand of the pitcher and not striking out a ton. Can you believe the Astros have just 9 strikeouts against LHP in their L14 days? NINE! The Sox also haven’t been striking out a ton either. For both of their price tags, they are a hard fade for me tonight. If you want to play them, I will not be opposed to it.