Welcome to the June 7^th Edition of the MLB Pitching Breakdown for Fanduel, DraftKings, and Fantasydraft!

MAIN SLATE IS ADDED BELOW!!!

In case you all didn’t know, my name is Matt, mdellagnese14 on twitter. I am currently a student at Springfield College with a love and passion for sports, mainly baseball.

I was brought to the DFS Army to write pitching articles for all members of the DFSArmy! If you are not a member, join the DFSArmy and use promo code “DFSMATT” to get 10% off your subscription!

I am mostly a Fanduel player, so the content in my articles will be for geared mainly towards Fanduel. However, I will include pricing from all three sites (Fanduel, Draftkings, FantasyDraft). Some plays may be better off for the two pitcher sites and I will mention that when needed about a pitcher.

Pitching is one of the most, if not the most important position in your MLB lineups and selecting the right one will help you tremendously. Go check out the MLB Pitching Strategy article to get my thought process on picking these pitchers each slate!

NOTE: most of the stats I used are from a 14-game sample to the handiness of pitchers. If I reference season numbers, I will mention that!

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Definitions of Stats used in articles via Fangraphs.com

K% (Strikeout Percentage): Frequency with which the pitcher has struck out a batter, calculated as strikeouts divided by total batters faced.

An average K% is 20%, anything above is considered great or elite

BB% (Walk Percentage): Frequency with which the pitcher has issued a walk, calculated as walks divided by total batters faced. Average BB% for pitchers is 7.7%, anything lower is considered great or elite

BABIP (Batting Average on Balls in Play): The rate at which the pitcher allows a hit when the ball is put in play. A BABIP at or near .300 is considered average. EXAMPLE: if a pitcher has a BABIP of .200 it means he could be getting lucky and balls in play are turned into outs if they have a BABIP of .400 he could be getting unlucky on balls in play and they are turning into hits.

xFIP (Expected Fielding Independent Pitching): An estimate of a pitcher’s ERA based on strikeouts, walks/HBP, and fly balls allowed, assuming league average results on balls in play and home run to fly ball ratio. The Lower the xFIP the better. 3.80 is around average.

SIERA (Skill-Interactive ERA): An ERA estimator that attempts to more accurately capture a pitcher’s performance based on strikeouts, walks/HBP, home runs, and batted ball data. The lower the better 3.90 is considered average, so anything below that is great to excellent. Anything about is poor.

Hard% (Hard Contact Percentage): Percentage of hard-hit batted balls. Anything below 30% is considered average or better. the lower Hard% the better, meaning pitchers are giving up more soft contact.

wRC+: A rate statistic that credits a hitter for the value of each outcome rather than treating them all equally. League average is 100, each point above or below that is one percentage point better or worse than league average. wRC+ is a better representation of offense value.

O-Swing% = Swings at pitches outside the zone/pitches outside the zone

Z-Swing%  = Swings at pitches inside the zone/pitches inside the zone

Swing% = Swings/Pitches

O-Contact% = Number of pitches on which contact was made on pitches outside the zone / Swings on pitches outside the zone

Z-Contact%  = Number of pitches on which contact was made on pitches inside the zone / Swings on pitches inside the zone

SwStr% = Swings and misses/Total Pitches

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EARLY SLATE

Jose Berrios (9.5k FD) (11.1k DK) (20.5k FD2) vs CWS

Berrios is much better at home this season and has already dominated the White Sox at home this year. In that start he scored 64 fanduel points, going 7 innings with 11 strikeouts. The next time he faced them was not the same result, but that start was on the road. Last time he started I showed his home/road splits, and here they are after that start.

These are some crazy splits and reasons to really only pitch him when he’s at home for DFS. The White Sox come into this game with a 24.4% K rate vs RHP in their last 14. Berrios has a good 3.41 SIERA this season and is getting hit hard less than 30% of the time. Despite a few games where he was struggling, he still has a 25% K rate and just 4.8% walk rate this season. Berrios will be the chalk of this early slate today and in cash games, I would eat it.

Tyler Anderson (5.9k FD) (6.4k DK) (13.6k FD2) @ CIN

Normally I do not like to pick pitchers in the Great American Smallpark, but that Reds lineup does not look great. Check out our Lineups page for some of their numbers vs LHP. They only have 2 lefties, but their righties, outside of Suarez do not scare me too much. The Reds have been good vs LHP, but this lineup seems weak and as a team, they still have a 21.4% K rate vs LHP. He has been a bit better on the road, but still nothing amazing. His flyball tendencies definitely hurt him in Coors, and it could hurt today too. He is allowing almost .060 less wOBA on the road and allowing a .226 average. Anderson is not a big strikeout guy but does get 21.6% on the road. I think we can take a risk on Anderson in GPPs this afternoon against a watered down Reds lineup.

James Shields (6.7k FD) (5.3k DK) (11k FD2) @ MIN

Shields has been much better of late this season and I don’t mind using him in tournaments today. Everyone will be on the Twins hitters and many will not hedge with a Shields lineup. Overall, the Twins lineup today has a total of 107 at-bats against Shields and have just a .252 average and Dozier has the most success against him. I will gladly take Shields against the chalky Twins this afternoon. He has been amazing in his last 4 starts, scoring no less than 28 fanduel points and has hit 47. Last time he faced this Twins team he scored 30 fanduel points which is PLENTY today for his price. Shields has gone at least 6 innings in 8 straight starts and has 7 in his last 4 starts. His advanced stats are not the best with just a 16% K rate this year but has been able to get 5-8 K’s in his last 4 starts. He will likely be low owned this afternoon and I love taking a shot at him.

Trevor Richards (5.7k FD) (5.5k DK) (10.9k FD2) @ STL

Richards has been recalled to make a start against the Cardinals this afternoon. In AAA this year he has a 24.5% k rate with just a 2.7% walk rate and has been able to get near 50% groundballs. From the beginning of May, Richards has been able to go 6 innings in every single start in AAA and has gone as much as 7.1. He’s sitting just under a K per inning and only has issued 4 walks in the 6 starts. His last outing in the MLB was against the Dodgers and he was able to get 44 fanduel points in just 4.2 innings. The reason for his was he was able to rack up 10 strikeouts. He has elite upside against the Cardinals who can struggle against rookie pitchers.

FOR DRAFTKINGS I LIKE NICK PIVETTA AGAINST THE CUBS. FANDUEL DOES NOT HAVE THAT GAME ON THEIR EARLY SLATE SADLY.

Early Slate Rankings

1. Jose Berrios (all formats)
2. Nick Pivetta (all formats, DK only)
3. Trevor Richards (GPP)
4. James Shields (GPP)
5. Tyler Anderson (GPP)

MAIN SLATE

Jalen Beeks (6k FD) (5.7k DK) (10.9k FD2) vs DET

Another lefty against the Tigers. This is something that I do not love to do, but they have never seen Beeks before as this is his MLB debut. In AAA this year, Beeks has 80 strikeouts in 56.1 innings which comes to a 35.4% K rate. He also has just a 6.2% walk rate with a WHIP of 0.98. Over his minor league career, he has been fairly split neutral with flyballs and groundballs so, there is not a big edge there. Beeks throws a fastball between 90-93, a cutter that’s 87-90, curveball 74-77, and changeup 83-84. Beeks has been great to both sides of the plate this year allowing just a .197 average total. He has given up 6 HR to RHH, but just 1 against lefties. The Tigers have been amazing against LHP over the last 2 weeks, but facing a rookie is never easy since they have never seen him before. This does not mean they won’t be able to tee off on him either though. For his price though, I think he is worth a gamble in tournaments tonight.

Jaime Garcia (6.2k FD) (6.6k DK) (12.8k FD2) vs BAL

I love picking on the Orioles lately. Everyone will want to stack the Orioles against a lefty, and although it might work, the numbers show otherwise. Let us take a gander at Baltimore vs LHP in the last 2 weeks. They have 145 plate appearances, which is a hefty amount against lefties. They have a 22.1% K rate, .220 batting average, .240 wOBA and just 45 wRC+. Their BABIP sits a .277, which shows me that they aren’t getting that unlucky, they just can’t hit right now. Their hard contact is average (30%), but they are hitting 50% groundballs, and it is hard to score in this league nowadays if you always hit grounders. Luckily for Garcia, he gets about 42% groundballs this year, which is actually very low compared to what he is used to. He’s normally around 55% or more. I do expect him to be able to get groundballs tonight with his sinker and Baltimore having that tendency right now. Baltimore hitters have been able to get good contact off fastballs and sinkers, but still hit a ton of grounders. Garcia throws mostly a FB, Slider, Change, and sinker. No one on the Orioles team has over a 71% contact rate against change-ups and Garcia throws it almost 18% of the time with a 40.78% Whiff rate and 52.22% groundball rate. While everyone takes the Orioles, please take at least 1 share of Garcia because he could pitch a gem tonight.

Gerrit Cole (11.8k FD) (14k DK) (27.6k FD2) @ TEX

Cole has been amazing this season and has a nice matchup tonight too. I’m not normally on pitchers in Texas, but most pitchers are not as good as Cole. Cole is your cash game pitcher on this small main slate and don’t think twice about it. He has started to regress a bit since his 85 fanduel point game (which is to be expected). But has still put up 40+ fanduel points in 3 straight starts. He already faced this Texas team twice this season and his numbers against them are absurd. Cole has 1 away and 1 home start against them had combined has gone 14 innings with 25 K’s, 1 ER for an average of 61 fanduel points. He is one of the best pitchers in the MLB this season and the Rangers have a 25.6% K rate against RHP in their L14. The Rangers should be shut down tonight, and if they happen to hit a ton off Cole then it just wasn’t his night because all signs point to him dominating them yet again.

Cole Hamels (8.6k FD) (8.1k DK) (16.1k FD2) vs HOU

Lefties have struggled against the Astros of late as they are starting to heat up a bit. This is a small slate with limited pitching options. Cole is the obvious chalk in cash games, but these other guys I do like for tournaments. The Astros have seen Hamels a lot with 174 at-bats. Most of their roster has also seen him more than 10 times too. They come in hitting just .224 against him with a 23.5% K rate. He has scored at least 30 fanduel points in 6 of his last 7 starts and has been sitting between 5-8 strikeouts per game. Hamels has seen the Astros twice this year and went 6 innings with 7 K’s and gave up just 2 earned runs in the first start in Houston. In his 2^nd start in Houston, he went 6 innings with 5 K’s, but 0 earned runs, good for 43 fanduel points. I do like the Astros offense tonight, but I will take a shot on Hamels too.

Mike Leake (7.6k FD) (7.5k DK) (14.6k FD2) @ TB

Ew, I did not think Leake would make this article tonight, but he profiles well. The pricing difference is insane and he’s not as playable on fanduel as he is on DraftKings and Fantasydraft. Leake just faced this Rays team and was able to get 8 strikeouts in 7 innings, good for 43 fanduel points. Over his last 3 starts, he has been very good allowing just 4 runs in 21.2 innings with 13 K’s. He isn’t a big strikeout guy and the 8 was an outlier. He normally gets around 50% groundballs and that will help him tonight. Leake mainly throws a sinker, slider, changeup, and cutter. The Rays are decent against cutter and sinker, but get a ton of groundballs on them. They only have 2 guys over a .400 xwOBA vs changeups, cutter, and sinker though. His slider is his strikeout pitch as he has over a 42% whiff rate with it and the Rays have low contact rates and higher whiff rates against the slider.

MAIN SLATE RANKINGS

1. Gerrit Cole (all formats)
2. Cole Hamels (GPP)
3. Jalen Beeks (GPP)
4. Jaime Garcia (GPP)
5. Mike Leake (GPP)

This is a small 5-game main slate and really anything can go. These are my 5 favorites on the slate though! Good Luck everyone and thank you for reading the FREE article today. Don’t forget, tomorrow is also FREEBIE FRIDAY at the DFSARMY. You will not want to miss out on it!