Welcome to the June 25th Edition of Painting the Black, an MLB Pitching Breakdown for Fanduel, DraftKings, and Fantasydraft!
In case you all didn’t know, my name is Matt, mdellagnese14 on twitter. I am currently a student at Springfield College with a love and passion for sports, mainly baseball.
I was brought to the DFS Army to write pitching articles for all members of the DFSArmy! If you are not a member, join the DFSArmy and use promo code “DFSMATT” to get 10% off your subscription!
I am mostly a Fanduel player, so the content in my articles will be for geared mainly towards Fanduel. However, I will include pricing from all three sites (Fanduel, Draftkings, FantasyDraft). Some plays may be better off for the two pitcher sites and I will mention that when needed about a pitcher.
Pitching is one of the most, if not the most important position in your MLB lineups and selecting the right one will help you tremendously. Go check out the MLB Pitching Strategy article to get my thought process on picking these pitchers each slate!
NOTE: most of the stats I used are from a 14-game sample to the handiness of pitchers. If I reference season numbers, I will mention that!
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BULLPEN REPORTS
Main Slate
Blake Snell (9.1k FD) (10.1k DK) (19.8k FD2) vs WSH
Snell is a guy I like to use against almost every team except AL East opponents. He was able to score 46 fanduel points last time out against Houston and racked up 6 strikeouts in 7 innings. Snell has strikeout upside and we have seen him get up to 12 in a start this year. On the year. Snell has a 27.3% strikeout rate with a 3.73 SIERA. He is one of the higher rated pitchers for us today on the DFS Army grade scale at 84.8. The total in this game already went down half a run and the Nationals team total went down 0.3 since they opened. Blake Snell is practically un-hittable at home this season so far. He’s allowing a .202 average with a .251 wOBA at home this year and lefties have not done much against him. Our lineups page shows that they should be doing better than they have been with a big difference between their wOBA and xwOBA. The average DFSA Grade is just 54.83 though and most of them have had trouble hitting lefties besides Rendon. Snell has the chance to have a big game here tonight and I wouldn’t mind using him in all formats.
Seth Lugo (5.9k FD) (7.1k DK) (13.7k FD2) vs PIT
Normally I do not like picking on the Pirates, but Lugo has shown he can shut down an offense (when he scored 52 fanduel points against my damn Yanks). Lugo’s home/road splits are pretty insane and he has had some tough opponents on the road when he was in Coors and Arizona. Lugo has only given up 3 ER at home over 30 innings and has given up just a .205 wOBA with a .187 average. He has the ability to get strikeouts with over a 27% strikeout rate on the season and his walk rate at home is just 1.8%. The Pirates have an implied total just 3.8 runs today which is on the lower end of the slate. With his price being so cheap, I definitely think we can use him in tournaments tonight. The Pirates are not striking out a ton (16.74%) but their average grade is just 65. With his price, you can get all the hitters you want tonight.
Jameson Taillon (7.8k FD) (7.9k DK) (15.1k FD2) @ NYM
The Mets projected lineup is back to their bad ways (stat wise) over their L14. They have just a .307 xwOBA and have a 22.31% strikeout rate. This is not as high as we like usually, but they are implied just 3.8 runs too. Taillon has shown us upside this season with a 52 fanduel point game and 58 point games earlier this season. He’s been sitting mainly in the mid to high 20s and low to mid-30s. His price is down to where it is more respectable. He is not worth a 9k price tag at all and when he gets that high he’s unusable for me. The last start he was able to get 7 strikeouts in just 5 innings and has normally sat around 5-8 strikeouts per game. He comes into this game with a 3.70 SIERA and 51.1% groundball rate. The Mets can really fall off as we have seen before this season. I think this game is going to be a well-pitched game from both sides.
Don’t forget all of our other articles for MLB today!
Also, check out the Lineups Page and Research Station. Lastly, don’t forget to use the amazing Domination Station to create your lineups!
Cole Hamels (8.9k FD) (9.9k DK) (19.6k FD2) vs SD
Normally, pitching in Texas is not an easy task, but Hamels has a great matchup with the Padres. Hamels has seen his strikeout rate increase 6% from last season and has lowered his SIERA by 0.7. He gets hit pretty hard but is getting a nice 11.6% SwStr%. The Padres don’t have many at-bats against him, but in 29, they have just 1 hit. Now that is not a ton and I don’t really take that into consideration much, but it is still a success. It is not a surprise that he struggles more at home, but he has actually been better against RHH than LHH. Their lineup on the lineups page looks amazing for a pitcher. They have just a .260 xwOBA with a .076 ISO and 23% K rate. They likely will throw out 8 righties which is actually better for Hamels. He’s been pretty consistent with 30-40 point games and is normally good for 5-8 strikeouts per game. The Rangers should be able to do work on Joey Lucchesi tonight and Hamels has a great chance at the win.
Justin Verlander (11.7k FD) (13.3k DK) (24.3k FD2) vs TOR
The clear top option tonight and the chalk across DFS sites. Verlander simply has been amazing this year and still isn’t slowing down. Surprising, they do have some good BvP against him. In 124 at-bats they have a .282 average with 9 home runs, a .391 wOBA and .282 ISO. The Blue Jays are implied just 2.8 runs though and Verlander is a different pitcher this year. Verlander has allowed just a .210 wOBA at home this year and a .153 average getting a 37.5% K rate. When you roll Verlander, you can expect to get 40+ points on fanduel. Despite hitting the ball well lately, the Jays projected lineup has just 59.37 DFSA Grade average. The Astros are one of the hottest teams in baseball right now and have a nice matchup with a lefty.
Mike Clevinger (9.8k FD) (11.1k DK) (21.4k FD2) @ STL
First things first, we need to watch the weather in St. Louis, but I love Clevinger tonight. Despite having a high wRC+ vs RHP of late, the Cardinals still have a 27% strikeout rate. Clevinger has been outstanding this season with his last two starts going for 60+ fanduel points. I love how he has been able to lower his walks this year and it has made him a much easier fantasy pitcher to use. His K% is lower than I would like this year, but he still has shown upside. Cleveland has been pretty good of late and has a nice matchup with John Gant tonight, Clevinger should be able to get a win. The projected lineup for STL has 3 guys with over 25% strikeout rates and they don’t have a DH which is almost another strikeout for Clev. The Cardinals may look like they are hot, but a pitcher like Clevinger can stop an offense at any time. He also has been better on the road this year with a .248 wOBA, that is .067 points better than his home wOBA. The average is almost 80 points lower too. Clevinger is a nice pivot off Verlander in tournaments tonight and I still like him for cash too. Watch the weather closely though!
MAIN SLATE RANKINGS
- Justin Verlander (all formats)
- Mike Clevinger (all formats, watch weather)
- Cole Hamels (cash viable, but lean GPP)
- Blake Snell (lean GPP)
- Jameson Taillon (GPP)
- Seth Lugo (GPP)
Bats to target
Yankees (Lefties) vs Vince Velasquez
Phillies (Hoskins, Herrera, Franco, Williams) vs Jonathan Loaisiga
Mariners (CRUZ, Healy, Seager, Segura) vs Andrew Cashner
Rays (Ramos, Duffy, Gomez the most) vs Gio Gonzalez
Diamondbacks (all) vs Dan Straily
Braves (lefties) vs Tyler Mahle
Rangers (righties) vs Joey Lucchesi
Indians (all) vs John Gant
