Welcome to the June 19th Edition of Painting the Black, an MLB Pitching Breakdown for Fanduel, DraftKings, and Fantasydraft!
In case you all didn’t know, my name is Matt, mdellagnese14 on twitter. I am currently a student at Springfield College with a love and passion for sports, mainly baseball.
I was brought to the DFS Army to write pitching articles for all members of the DFSArmy! If you are not a member, join the DFSArmy and use promo code “DFSMATT” to get 10% off your subscription!
I am mostly a Fanduel player, so the content in my articles will be for geared mainly towards Fanduel. However, I will include pricing from all three sites (Fanduel, Draftkings, FantasyDraft). Some plays may be better off for the two pitcher sites and I will mention that when needed about a pitcher.
Pitching is one of the most, if not the most important position in your MLB lineups and selecting the right one will help you tremendously. Go check out the MLB Pitching Strategy article to get my thought process on picking these pitchers each slate!
NOTE: most of the stats I used are from a 14-game sample to the handiness of pitchers. If I reference season numbers, I will mention that!
ALWAYS PAY ATTENTION TO THE WEATHER FROM OUR VERY OWN @DFSWEATHER IN SLACK!!!
Any updates will be given in our VIP Slack Channel! <– click here to see our pricing to get the whole VIP experience!
If you find yourself thinking, “what do some of these stats mean?” Check out my new definitions article HERE. I explain what each stat I use mean, and reasons why I use those stats in my articles!
BULLPEN REPORTS
MAIN SLATE
Freddy Peralta (6.7k FD) (7.8k DK) (15.1k FD2) @ PIT
We saw a well-pitched game last night in Pittsburg, and I think we could see another one here tonight. I do like Peralta a bit more than Taillon though. The Pirates have been middle of the pack against RHP over the last 2 weeks, but they went ice cold last night. Nothing looks good for Peralta when looking at the lineups page besides the Pirates have an average DFSA Grade of just 55.50. In the minors this year, Peralta has been almost lights out. Righties are hitting just .181 against him, while lefties just .240. In AAA this year he’s shown a wonderful 34.3% strikeout rate, but a bit high walk rate at 11%. He has been getting 49% groundballs in AAA though which should help him in the MLB. I think his price is cheap enough to use for tournaments considering the upside I believe he has tonight.
Mike Soroka (7.2k FD) (8.9k DK) (17.3k FD2) @ TOR
Soroka is making his 2nd start back in the MLB and his price on fanduel makes him much more appealing than on the other sites. His last start was against the Mets, and he scored 41 fanduel points. Before that, he only was able to go 4 and 4.2 innings in his first stint with the big league club. He was good in 2 rehab starts but did not go past 5 innings. Soroka is a talented kid and I love his upside against the Blue Jays. Yes, Toronto has been pretty good of late, but Soroka is a slider pitcher against them, and we love using pitchers who throw sliders. He throws a sinker (43%), 4SFB (27.4%), slider (22%), and changeup (7.6%). His strikeout pitch is his slider and the Jays are awful at hitting them. He has shown a 29.8% K rate in AAA this year and just 5.8% walk rate. His strikeouts will come, it will be key for Soroka to limit baserunners and be able to strand them. His sinker is very good as he has a 70% groundball rate in AAA and 45.3% so far in the MLB. I love his upside tonight and I don’t think many people will be on him for tournaments.
Mike Clevinger (9.3k FD) (10.8k DK) (21.1k FD2) vs CWS
The White Sox are becoming my favorite team to target because they are just so bad. Clevinger just decimated this White Sox team last start and there is no reason he can’t do it again. He went 7 innings with 11 K’s and scored 61 fanduel points in that start and it wasn’t the first time he pitched well against them. As a team, the White Sox are hitting just .209 with a .262 wOBA against Clevinger in 67 at-bats with a 34% K rate. Over the L14 vs RHP, they have a 29.3% K rate and just 67 wRC+. Those three stats are among the worst in the MLB. They also have just a .267 wOBA and their projected lineup has only a .307 xwOBA with a 24.63% K rate. Clevinger has scored an average of 54.5 fanduel points against the white sox in 2 starts and has 18 K’s in 13.2 innings allowing just 2 ER. Clevinger is a great pivot off the top arms tonight and I love his upside.
Justin Verlander (11.5k FD) (13.3k DK) (25.7k FD2) vs TB
It’s between Verlander and Sale tonight as the top dogs and it is VERY close. I love both of them. Verlander gets a Rays team that was able to score 4 off of Cole last night, but I’m not worried the slightest. Over their L14, the Rays still have a 26.7% K rate and 81 wRC+. Factor that into Verlander’s 31.7% K rate, the upside is crazy tonight. He allows less than a baserunner per inning and hitters are hitting just .158 against him. As I say every start, Verlander is a flyball pitcher and it won’t change. His flyballs are not leading to home runs and his hard% is just 26.5%. When an offense looks like this on the lineups page, we LOVE to target the pitcher against them.
Verlander is an elite play in all formats and is my top play tonight.
Chris Sale (11.4k FD) (12.7k DK) (24.8k FD2) @ MIN
Verlander does get the bump here for me, but Sale is directly behind him. Sale comes into this start with a 34% K rate this year and allowing a .191 average against. Sale has been walking a bit more hitters this year than he has in the past, but it is not hurting him that much. His SIERA bests Verlander’s at 2.71 and he is only getting hit hard 25% of the time. The Twins have not been striking out as much as a team vs LHP (just 21.1%), but they aren’t hitting much either. Their projected lineup has just a .304 xwOBA and .102 ISO with an average DFSA Grade of 45.97. It will be hard to pick between these two tonight. If I were you, I would make cash lineups with Verlander, Sale, and Clevinger, then get freaky in tournaments with those 3, plus the others I list today!
Jose Berrios (9.6k FD) (9.3k FD2) (17.5k FD2) vs BOS
Berrios is a GPP only play for me tonight against the Red Sox. He has looked very good of late both at home and on the road, but his upside is great. He has gotten his K% up to 25.8% this year and is only walking 4.3% (which comes to 1.51 BB/9). His Hard% is just about average at 30.6% and his SIERA is 3.29. He has a career-high 11.8% SwStr% so far this year and is throwing a lot more first-pitch strikes. His O-Swing% is up almost 6% from last year (35.9% this year), and his swinging% is near 50%. Berrios is only allowing a .219 wOBA at home and has a 30.4% K rate at home. His xFIP sits a 2.72 and his WHIP is just 0.77. I know it’s the Red Sox, but they have not been all that amazing of late either. Their numbers do look good, but they had that one blow up game on their West Coast swing. They do have a high xwOBA, but their average DFSA Grade does not jump off the page. I think Berrios will be low owned and he should be able to get at least 5 strikeouts tonight even against the Sox.
Cole Hamels (8.6k FD) (9.7k DK) (18.9k FD2) @ KC
Well, when Bartolo Colon shuts down an offense, we know they are cold. Hamels is obviously much better than Colon and I love him in this matchup today. Another offense with a TON of red in their L14 vs LHP.
The Royals have 97 at-bats against Hamels and are hitting just .206 with a .285 wOBA and .155 ISO. The one downfall against the Royals is they do not strikeout a ton, but Hamels can still do work against them. For the most part, Hamels has been consistent this year. He has 9 starts this year with more than 30 fanduel points and has scored 37, 22, and 43 in his last 3 starts. Hamels has been around 5+ strikeouts this year in starts and has been able to go 6+ in 7 straight starts. On fanduel, he’s a GPP only play for me tonight. On DK and FD2 I wouldn’t mind using him as an SP2 if you can afford it.
Vince Velasquez (8.8k FD) (8.6k DK) (16.7k FD2) vs STL
We saw Pivetta just mow down this Cardinals lineup last night, then their bullpen blew the game. I think the Cards numbers are a bit skewed from that last night because they did not look good against Pivetta. Pivetta went 7.1 innings allowing just 2 runs of HR and had 13 strikeouts. STL was only able to score off 2 solo home runs of Pivetta and Velasquez has strikeout upside just like Pivetta did last night. The Cardinals are projected just 3 lefties in their lineup and VV has been much better against RHH this year. He has struggled at home, but his home numbers are inflated by the 10 spot the Brewers put up against him. He still has a 30% K rate at home and has struck out 29% of RHH he has faced. The more righties in the Cards lineup, the more I like Velasquez for tournaments tonight. He has shown 10+ K’s upside and normally hovers around 6+. He has scored 40 fanduel points in 2 of his last 3 starts and I think he can keep it rolling tonight against the Red Birds.
Jefry Rodriguez (5.5k FD) (5.9k DK) (12.2k FD2) vs BAL
Oh look, a pitcher against the Orioles. Now, this is Rodriguez’s 2nd game in the big leagues and in his first, he went 4.2 innings with 3 K’s and 0 ER. The fact that their projected lineup page looks this bad makes me love the kid even more.
There is so much red there and their grade is the lowest on the entire 15-game slate tonight. In AA this year, he was allowing just a .213 average against lefties and .229 against righties. He has gone 6+ in 7 of his 13 starts this year. Rodriguez is getting more than a strikeout per inning in AA and he will need to translate that to the MLB. He gets just about the best team to face in this start as the Orioles have a 23% K rate and the 2nd lowest wRC+ with a .276 wOBA in their L14 vs RHP. He’s dirt cheap and could help you stack up Coors tonight.
MAIN SLATE RANKINGS
- Justin Verlander (all formats)
- Chris Sale (all formats)
- Mike Clevinger (all formats)
- Cole Hamels (lean GPP)
- Mike Soroka (GPP)
- Freddy Peralta (GPP)
- Jose Berrios (GPP)
- Vince Velasquez (GPP)
- Jefry Rodriguez (GPP)
Bats to target
Houston (righties) vs Blake Snell
Yankees (righties, but don’t leave off Hicks in your stacks) vs Marco Gonzales
Nationals (lefties) vs David Hess
Rangers (all) vs Jason Hammel
Mets (ALLLLLL) vs German Marquez
Rockies (ALLLLLL) vs Jason Vargas
Diamondbacks (all) vs Felix Pena
Angels (1-4) vs Matt Koch
A’s (Pinder, Lowrie, Davis) vs Eric Lauer
Giants (Prefer lefties, but pretty much are all in play) vs Dan Straily
