Welcome to the June 18th Edition of Painting the Black, an MLB Pitching Breakdown for Fanduel, DraftKings, and Fantasydraft!
In case you all didn’t know, my name is Matt, mdellagnese14 on twitter. I am currently a student at Springfield College with a love and passion for sports, mainly baseball.
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I am mostly a Fanduel player, so the content in my articles will be for geared mainly towards Fanduel. However, I will include pricing from all three sites (Fanduel, Draftkings, FantasyDraft). Some plays may be better off for the two pitcher sites and I will mention that when needed about a pitcher.
Pitching is one of the most, if not the most important position in your MLB lineups and selecting the right one will help you tremendously. Go check out the MLB Pitching Strategy article to get my thought process on picking these pitchers each slate!
NOTE: most of the stats I used are from a 14-game sample to the handiness of pitchers. If I reference season numbers, I will mention that!
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BULLPEN REPORTS
MAIN SLATE
Trevor Bauer (11.2k FD) (12.4k DK) (23.8k FD2) vs CWS
If it was not for the weather here, I would like Bauer much more. The White Sox are awful and absolutely love to strike out. Over their L14 they have a 29.4% K rate with just a 68 wRC+, .118 ISO and hitting just .220. Bauer has been amazing all season and has 4 straight games with 10+ strikeouts scoring no less than 41 fanduel points. So far, Bauer has just 1 start under 30 fanduel points and has numerous 50+ point games. He’s showing a career-high 31.1% K rate this year with a 3.09 SIERA and 1.12 WHIP. He’s a guy who has gotten hit hard over 30% almost his whole career and the results are just getting better and better. The White Sox have no one that scares me and Bauer just struck out 12 against them with 54 fanduel points. The weather here pisses me off because he would have been my top option. He still is my 2nd option because of the weather, but PLEASE keep an eye on Mark’s channel #DFS_Weather in slack!
Gerrit Cole (11k FD) (13k DK) (25k FD2) vs TB
Cole is $200 cheaper on fanduel tonight, but the highest priced guy on DK and FD2. The Rays have been striking out a ton lately with a 25.8% K rate in the L14 with just a .238 average and .121 ISO. Looking at their projected lineup, their average DFSA grade is just 52.23 and they have a .295 xwOBA with a 24.37 K%. The Astros are one of the hottest teams in baseball right now, winning 10 games in a row. He also has a career-high K% this year at 36.7% and allowing just a .175 average. His WHIP is 0.88, which is amazing for DK and FD2 because he isn’t going to lose many points because he doesn’t allow many baserunners. Cole’s SIERA is even better than Bauers at 2.52. He has been a bit underwhelming of late and for his price we would like more 50 point fanduel games, but his safety and upside is unmatched on this slate. Cole is my #1 guy tonight and for good reason. Since the weather in CLE is shaky, Cole is going to be in all my cash lineups tonight.
Jacob deGrom (9k FD) (11.2k DK) (21.3k FD2) @ COL
Before you say it, yes I know he’s in Coors, but that doesn’t scare me at all tonight. Since coming back from his injury, he deGrom has not gone less than 7 innings and has not scored less than 43 fanduel points. These games came against some decent offenses too. deGrom hasn’t given up more than 2 ER in his last 6 starts while never having less than 7 strikeouts. The Rockies have been pretty bad of late besides yesterday’s game. Go check out how they look on our lineups page. They have an xwOBA of just .301 with a 23.75% K rate. Their average DFSA Grade sits at just 60.83 and deGrom has a 99.70 DFSA Grade. Trevor Story is the hottest hitter on the team right now, but he also has a 26.8% K rate as well. Factor in there .191 average, .252 wOBA, and .138 ISO with a 30% strikeout rate. Despite being in Coors, deGrom is a great option tonight and I wouldn’t mind using him in cash either.
Jaime Barria (6.8k FD) (8.1k DK) (16k FD2) vs ARI
The Diamondbacks are not a team that I really want to target right now, but Barria has looked much better at home this year so far. Looking at his splits, he allows just a .232 wOBA at home compared to .364 on the road. Hitters are just hitting .215 at home against him too and he’s only allowed 5 runs in 21 IP. Over their L14 vs RHP, the D-backs have a 24.8% strikeout rate, but they are hitting for power and getting on base. This is a pure GPP play for me tonight but I do like his favorable home/road splits. Barria’s xFIP is 3.68 at home and 5.19 on the road and he’s also walking less at home too. His ability to get grounders at home is helping his cause because he does get hit very hard. In his last 3 home starts, he has scored 46, 43, and 28 fanduel points. For his price across the board, I think he’s a great GPP option tonight.
Kenta Maeda (8.3k FD) (9.3k DK) (17.6k FD2) @ CHC
First thing with Maeda is the weather concerns in Chicago too. At least, if they play we are seeing the wind come in instead of blowing out.
Here is the Cubs projected lineup from our lineups page
You see then have 4 guys with “red” xwOBA and just 3 with green. They also have not been hitting for much power lately, and the last 4 hitters in the lineup all have over 23% strikeout rates. Maeda has looked a bit better on the road this year with a wOBA almost 50 points lower than at home and allowing a .217 average compared to .262 at home. He has shown a 28% K rate this season and pitching to a 2.50 SIERA. I doubt many people will be on Maeda today, but I think he has upside in this matchup for tournaments.
Miles Mikolas (9.5k FD) (8.3k DK) (16k FD2) @ PHI
I have been back and forth on Mikolas all day so far, but I think he has what it takes to put up a good score tonight. I like his price much more on DK/FD2 as on fanduel I will just save the $500 and use deGrom. His strikeout rate is not good at all, but he limits damage by not walking anyone and getting 51.6% groundballs. He has a SIERA that is 3.57 which is around average. The Phillies have a 26.7% K rate against RHP in the last 2 weeks. Their offense has been better power wise of late and that does scare me a bit. He has been good for about 5 K’s in his starts and that number could have a few more with the Phillies strikeout rates. Like I said earlier, I don’t hate using him in cash for DK/FD2, but he’s GPP only on fanduel for me tonight.
MAIN SLATE RANKINGS
- Gerrit Cole (all formats)
- Jacob deGrom (all formats)
- Trevor Bauer (only 3rd because of the weather issues, keep him GPP ONLY unless Mark thinks they play with no issues)
- Kenta Maeda (GPP)
- Jaime Barria (GPP)
- Miles Mikolas (all formats SP2 DK/FD2, GPP only on fanduel)
Pitchers to target with bats
Jhoulys Chacin (use PIT lefties)
Trevor Williams (all MIL, but prefer lefties)
Dylan Covey (all CLE bats)
Tyler Chatwood (all LAD bats, prefer lefties + Puig/Kemp though)
Ryne Stanek/TB pitching (all HOU who are the hottest team right now)
Ian Kennedy (all of TEX)
Bartolo Colon (Merrifield (if he starts), Moustakas, Perez, Gordon)
Caleb Smith (SFG Righties, mainly McCutchen, Posey, Hundley,
