Welcome to the June 15th Edition of Painting the Black, a MLB Pitching Breakdown for Fanduel, DraftKings, and Fantasydraft!
In case you all didn’t know, my name is Matt, mdellagnese14 on twitter. I am currently a student at Springfield College with a love and passion for sports, mainly baseball.
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I am mostly a Fanduel player, so the content in my articles will be for geared mainly towards Fanduel. However, I will include pricing from all three sites (Fanduel, Draftkings, FantasyDraft). Some plays may be better off for the two pitcher sites and I will mention that when needed about a pitcher.
Pitching is one of the most, if not the most important position in your MLB lineups and selecting the right one will help you tremendously. Go check out the MLB Pitching Strategy article to get my thought process on picking these pitchers each slate!
NOTE: most of the stats I used are from a 14-game sample to the handiness of pitchers. If I reference season numbers, I will mention that!
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BULLPEN REPORTS
MAIN SLATE
Corey Kluber (12k FD) (13.6k DK) (25.2k FD2) vs MIN
The Twins have been pretty good against RHP over their L14, but today they will be given the task of facing Kluber. Only 5 players on the Twins roster have seen Kluber, and none have had any success. Over 128 at-bats, they have just a .148 average, .202 wOBA, and .086 ISO with a 34.3% strikeout rate. Kluber has been amazing this season and has a 27.5% K rate with a minuscule 2.7% walk rate this year. He has a SIERA of 2.77 with close to a 49% groundball rate. Even though it’s Kluber, he still is better at home this season. He has an xFIP of just 2.08 at home with a 30.5% K rate and 2% walk rate. Every start Kluber is good for 40+ fanduel points and will almost always go 6+ innings. He has not allowed a walk in 6 straight starts and has not scored fewer than 43 fanduel points over those 6 starts. We all know the upside that he has and I love him tonight. Kluber comes very expensive today, and this could cause him to be a bit lower owned. Don’t be fooled though, he is an amazing play tonight.
Reynaldo Lopez (6.7k FD) (5.9k DK) (12.1k FD2) vs DET
We had touted Lopez in his start against the Red Sox when not many people did. Lopez has been a road warrior of late. 5 of his last 6 starts have been on the road but his home start was very good against Texas. He has faced the Tigers earlier this year and scored 40 fanduel points. When Lopez is cruising, he can go 7+ innings. On the year, he only has gone less than 6 innings in 3 starts this year, and those were ones he got blown up in (except vs HOU). His K% is very low, which isn’t ideal, but he still can 6 K/9. They do fluctuate from 1-8 K’s which we don’t like because it is very boom or bust. Lopez does have a plus matchup against the Tigers though. In their L14 vs RHP, they have the 3rd worst wRC+ and have a 24.5% K rate. Their wOBA is just .259 and they are barely hitting over .200. Against righties this year, Lopez has allowed just a .263 wOBA and .183 average, giving up just 2 home runs. He also has been lights out at home this year. Across 34 innings, he has a 1.85 ERA, .226 wOBA, and .143 average against. Especially on DraftKings and Fantasydraft, we want pitchers who are not allowing many baserunners. Well, at home Lopez has under a 1 WHIP with a 12.7% increase in leaving runners on base. Lopez is cheap enough to use in tournaments tonight.
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Charlie Morton (9.6k FD) (12.1k DK) (23.2k FD2) @ KC
Morton will look to keep the string of amazing Astros’ pitcher’s starts against the Royals tonight. Against RHP, the Royals are one of the worst teams of late. They have the 4th lowest wRC+ with a .267 wOBA. Morton is having one of the best years of his career and has been able to shut down almost any offense this year. He has a 30.2% K rate and 9% walk rate. His WHIP stands at 1.12 and has a SIERA of 3.23 with a 50.8% GB rate. Morton’s last 2 starts have been pretty bad and that could lower his ownership tonight. Before that he was very good, scoring no less than 37 fanduel points. When Morton is on his game, he can go 6+ against anyone with 5+ strikeouts. Morton has 8 games with 40+ fanduel points this year and the Royals offense does not scare me right now. The only downside to them, is they have a low strikeout rate. The Astros offense is on fire of late, and Vegas believes they will win this game with a -210 favorite right now.
Tyler Skaggs (8.9k FD) (9.3k DK) (17.5k FD2) @ OAK
Skaggs finally is healthy and has been pitching amazing this year. He comes into this start with a 25.6% K rate and 7.5% walk rate. One amazing thing about him is he is leaving 83% of runners on base and pitching with a 3.58 SIERA. His Hard% is a bit high for me, but the results are not hurting because of it. He has only faced Oakland once this year, but was able to go 6.1 innings with 5 K’s, good enough for 44 fanduel points. At his price now, we want at least 40 fanduel points each start. His last two starts have been very good where he has gone 13 innings with 14 K’s and just 1 ER. Good for 98 fanduel points total. The A’s have been middle of the pack against LHP over the L14, but Skaggs can shut them down too. This is a good ballpark to pitch in, and Skaggs actually has better numbers away from home this year. He has allowed a .278 wOBA on the road compared to .324 at home. Lefties have a hard time hitting against him, but RHH can work him a little. There have been times this season where Oakland can struggle and can strikeout a lot and the upside for Skaggs is there tonight.
Zack Godley (7.2k FD) (8.1k DK) (16.1k FD2) vs NYM
Look who we have here. Another pitcher against the Mets. The Mets are looking awful lately. They scored 3 runs last night, but that is nothing in the MLB world. Godley has shown upside earlier this year but has struggled of late. He has been back and forth with good/bad starts. His good starts have 40+ fanduel point upside, but his bad starts can leave you in the negatives. The Mets are last in the MLB in wRC+ and rank at or near the bottom in wRC+, ISO, SLG, OBP, AVG, and rank near the top in K% at 28.7%. Godley has been better at home this season and luckily for him, this start is at home. He has allowed .055 lower wOBA at home while giving up 2 less HR and 24 less runs. Walks can hurt Godley, but he normally does not walk many hitters at home. Anyone is usually in play against the Mets, and I like Godley for GPPs tonight.
Ross Stripling (9.1k FD) (9.8k DK) (18.7k FD2) vs SF
The Giants have been very good of late, but Stripling has been even better. The consistency from Stripling has won our members a ton of money lately. Strip is priced up higher now, but he really should be considering his string of 5 straight starts of 30+ fanduel points. In his last 5 starts, he hasn’t had less than 40 fanduel points. The Dodgers are finally letting him loose after his first 2 starts were just 4 and 5.1 innings. Since becoming a starter, he has not had less than 5 strikeouts in a game, and has been as high as 10. On the year, he has a 30% K rate and just 4.6% walk rate with a 1.05 WHIP and 2.69 SIERA with a 23.7% Hard%. Stripling comes at a nice discount from Kluber today, and I love him in all formats.
James Paxton (10k FD) (10.7k DK) (20.5K FD2) vs BOS
Normally, I don’t like to pick on the Red Sox, but they are quite cold right now. They are middle of the pack in wRC+ vs LHP, but they have an elevated strikeout rate at 24.6% against them too. Paxton has been spectacular this year with a 31.4% K rate and just 7% walk rate. Add that to his 1.01 WHIP and .199 BAA, he also has a 3.00 SIERA. Paxton is almost lights out at home and is WAY better against RHH too. The Sox are projected to have 6-7 right-handed hitters in their lineup, and the numbers show Paxton has dominated righties. People do not like to pick on the Red Sox, but this is the time to pick on them, when they are cold and on the road. I love Paxton tonight.
Brent Suter (6.5k FD) (6.5k DK) (12.8k FD2) vs PHI
Almost like the Mets, the Phillies area team that we have been picking on for a while. Suter is not a name that will WOW anyone, and his stuff is not THAT good, but he’s been producing. One thing that I hate about Suter is he has not gone more than 6 innings at all this year. Despite that, he still has 5 straight starts with more than 27 fanduel points. He normally goes 5 innings and can get about 6 strikeouts. The Phillies do have a 24.4% K rate with a 60 wRC+. Suter has needed just 1 out to record that quality start in a few starts this year. If the Phillies continue to struggle, Suter could get that 6 innings here tonight.
MAIN SLATE RANKINGS
- Corey Kluber (all formats)
- Ross Stripling (all formats)
- James Paxton (all formats)
- Charlie Morton (all formats)
- Reynaldo Lopez (GPP, solid SP2)
- Tyler Skaggs (GPP, SP2)
- Brent Suter (GPP, solid SP2 with Kluber)
- Zack Godley (GPP, SP2)
