Welcome to the June 27^th Edition of Painting the Black, an MLB Pitching Breakdown for Fanduel, DraftKings, and Fantasydraft!

In case you all didn’t know, my name is Matt, mdellagnese14 on twitter. I am currently a student at Springfield College with a love and passion for sports, mainly baseball.

I was brought to the DFS Army to write pitching articles for all members of the DFSArmy! If you are not a member, join the DFSArmy and use promo code “DFSMATT” to get 10% off your subscription!

I am mostly a Fanduel player, so the content in my articles will be for geared mainly towards Fanduel. However, I will include pricing from all three sites (Fanduel, Draftkings, FantasyDraft). Some plays may be better off for the two pitcher sites and I will mention that when needed about a pitcher.

Pitching is one of the most, if not the most important position in your MLB lineups and selecting the right one will help you tremendously. Go check out the MLB Pitching Strategy article to get my thought process on picking these pitchers each slate!

NOTE: most of the stats I used are from a 14-game sample to the handiness of pitchers. If I reference season numbers, I will mention that!

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If you find yourself thinking, “what do some of these stats mean?” Check out my new definitions article HERE. I explain what each stat I use mean, and reasons why I use those stats in my articles!

BULLPEN REPORTS

Will be updated later, OR it will be posted in #mlb-new-and-notes later today!

Yesterday’s Results

1. James Paxton (55 FD) (31.55 DK)
2. Luis Severino (58 FD) (34.14 DK)
3. Corey Kluber (-9 FD) (-9.95 DK)
4. Ross Stripling (24 FD) (12.45 DK)
5. Charlie Morton (70 FD) (42.15 DK)
6. Freddy Peralta (61 FD) (38.55 DK)
7. Lance Lynn (27 FD) (13.25 DK
8. Reynaldo Lopez (24 FD) (13.3 DK)

I’m bringing back the “yesterday’s results” for you all so we can keep track of how we did! Last night was a pretty good night besides Kluber. My top 2 arms were amazing. Stripling got pulled in the 5^th, (damn Dave Roberts). My favorite GPP play was Peralta, and he totally destroyed the Royals as I expected. Overall it was a great night for pitching.

Main Slate

IM GOING TO SAY THIS NOW, AND LATER I DO NOT RECOMMEND PLAYING CASH GAMES ON THIS SLATE. I DO NOT THINK ANY PITCHER IS CASH SAFE, ALL HAVE RISK. PLAY LIGHT AND PLAY SMART!

Zack Wheeler (7.7k FD) (6.3k DK) (13.7k FD2) vs PIT

The Pirates have not been the greatest of late and their stats are on the downward trend. They have the 6^th lowest wOBA vs RHP in the L14 and have a 76 wRC+. Those numbers are not horrible, but Wheeler has been pretty good of late. Aside from his start against the Braves, he has been great in his last 3 of 4. He has scored 30+ fanduel points in 3 of his last 4 as well. Wheeler has shown up to 9 strikeout upside and I can see him getting some tonight too. His K% is 22.3% and he has a SIERA of 4.16 which is a bit high but is not horrible. Normally, he gets around 43-50% groundballs which will help him tonight. Their wOBA and xwOBA of late is not that great, both under .322 and Wheeler has shown us upside this year. His home/road splits do not look the best, but they are mainly because he got roughed up in 2 starts, one vs Toronto and one vs Colorado where he gave up 6 and 8 earned runs. This game opened up at just a 7.5 total as well.

Kyle Gibson (8.3k FD) (8.5k DK) (15.9k FD2) @ CHW

Here we see Kyle Gibson on the road against the White Sox. If you have been reading my articles every day Gibson starts, you know I will only like him on the road. His home/road splits are so big. His wOBA on the road is just .217 compared to .345 at home. Chicago does have history against Gibson with 94 at-bats. Over these at-bats, they have just a .213 average and .252 wOBA with a 25.5% strikeout rate. The White Sox are a team I still love to pick on. Their advanced stats are not getting any better as they still have a 27.3% strikeout rate with a .282 wOBA as a team. Gibson has a decent 23.3% K rate on the year with a 27.3% K rate on the road. His WHIP is also under 1.00 on the road too. Gibson is not a cash play, but he’s a fantastic tournament play tonight.

Shane Bieber (7.4k FD) (8.4k DK) (15.8k FD2) @ STL

Shane Bieber has done nothing but impress since being called up for the Indians. In his 3 starts, he has shown us 9 strikeout upside while scoring 23, 41, and 58 fanduel points. So far in the MLB, he has a 29% strikeout rate with a 4% walk rate. His SIERA sits at 2.78 and this kid is promising. He has a 51% groundball rate and its right up there with his GB rate in AAA this year. Bieber is showing a great 12% SwStr% in 3 starts and the Cardinals are not that great of late, besides absolutely shelling Kluber last night. Over their L14 they have a pretty good wRC+, but they are striking out at a very high 26.4% clip. The Cardinals can have those random blow up games, and I think they may have used that up last night. Bieber will look to continue hit hot start here tonight.

Alex Wood (7.6k FD) (8.2k DK) (16.1k FD2) vs CHC

The Cubs have been atrocious against LHP in the last 2 weeks and Alex Wood has some decent BvP to back it up with. It is only 46 at-bats, but they have just a .217 average and a 26% strikeout rate. Wood has been good, not great in his last 3 starts, but pitched well against the Mets in his last one. The Cubs in the L14 vs LHP have the 2^nd lowest wRC+ of 37 and have a very high 30.8% strikeout rate. Wood has not been his best this year but still has a 22.3% strikeout rate and just 4.8% walk rate. Even though he has not looked as sharp this year, he still has a 3.61 SIERA and 46.2% groundball rate. The Cubs have been struggling against LHP lately and Stripling did work on them last night before being pulled early. (yes, I know he’s a RHP). Be weary though, Dave Roberts likes to pull his pitchers early for no reason (I.E. Stripling last night).

Clayton Richard (8.7k FD) (7.7k DK) (15.4k FD2)  @ TEX

I do not normally like using pitchers in Texas, but Richard has surprised many people this year. His K% is up 2% from last year and has improved his WHIP from 1.52 last year, to 1.21 this year. Can you believe that he has a 3.81 SIERA? Well, believe it, because he does. He is helped out by his 59.2% groundball rate, which is sustainable for him since he had that last year and over 65% in 2016. That will help him in Texas since it’s a flyball park. The Rangers have not been that great vs LHP of late as they have a 74 wRC+ with a 22.4% K rate. They have been known to disappoint in good matchups and if Richards can keep the ball on the ground he could have a very good game tonight. The Rangers do strikeout a ton overall and Richards will be lower owned tonight.

Madison Bumgarner (9.8k FD) (11.2k DK) (21.1k FD2) vs COL

The Rockies got shut down by Derek Holland last night, and we know that Mad Bum is better than him. He had a rough few starts but bounced back nicely against the Padres at home. If you look at the BvP of Bumgarner, you might think that the Rockies hit him well, but most of that comes in Coors where no one really pitches that well consistently. The Rockies still look very good against LHP besides last night, and it would not surprise me if he did get hit around a little here. Bumgarner is likely going to be your chalk tonight, and I can see him either doing very good or busting. Like I said before, this slate is very risky as I don’t think any of these pitchers are safe. Play smart and stay within your bankroll management!

MAIN SLATE RANKINGS

1. Madison Bumgarner
2. Shane Bieber
3. Alex Wood
4. Kyle Gibson
5. Clayton Richard
6. Zack Wheeler

If you are playing cash games tonight, 1) I wouldn’t, and 2) Bumgarner is likely the chalk there. I wouldn’t mind using any of these in 3 and 5-man leagues though. Tonight is very risky, keep the entry fees lower and save them for a better pitching day.

 

Bats to target

Sorry, I won’t have bats to target today. I have a very busy day and don’t have time to look any further. Make sure you check out all the other coaches articles today along with the lineups page and research station!