Welcome to the June 26th Edition of Painting the Black, an MLB Pitching Breakdown for Fanduel, DraftKings, and Fantasydraft!
In case you all didn’t know, my name is Matt, mdellagnese14 on twitter. I am currently a student at Springfield College with a love and passion for sports, mainly baseball.
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I am mostly a Fanduel player, so the content in my articles will be for geared mainly towards Fanduel. However, I will include pricing from all three sites (Fanduel, Draftkings, FantasyDraft). Some plays may be better off for the two pitcher sites and I will mention that when needed about a pitcher.
Pitching is one of the most, if not the most important position in your MLB lineups and selecting the right one will help you tremendously. Go check out the MLB Pitching Strategy article to get my thought process on picking these pitchers each slate!
NOTE: most of the stats I used are from a 14-game sample to the handedness of pitchers. If I reference season numbers, I will mention that!
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BULLPEN REPORTS
Main Slate
James Paxton (9.6k FD) (12.5k DK) (24.1k FD2) @ BAL
A pitcher that is good against the Orioles?! YES, PLEASE. The O’s got worked by King Felix last night and it just gets much harder with Paxton starting tonight. Paxton has been simply amazing this season with a 31.5% strikeout rate and a 1.12 WHIP. He also has a wonderful SIERA at 3.06. He’s more a flyball pitcher and I hope people take his last 2 starts into consideration and fade him in this prime matchup. Paxton also has a career-high 13.2% SwStr%, career high O-Swing%, and Z-Swing%. He also has a very low contact rate. Baltimore has been a bit better of late and hasn’t been striking out a ton against LHP. They will throw out 8-9 righties, well, let them throw out 15 righties because Paxton is better against them anyways. Here are Paxton’s splits, and I will let them do the talking.
I love Paxton tonight, and we can fire him up in all formats.
Luis Severino (10.6k FD) (13.1k DK) (25.7k FD2) @ PHI
Severino is the Yankees ace this year and he isn’t slowing down. Loaisiga was able to shut down this Phillies offense last night and Severino can easily do the same. He comes into this matchup with a 30.2% K rate and just 6.4% walk rate. Severino is also allowing just a .198 BAA and has a 0.96 WHIP with a 3.02 SIERA. The Yankees pitching was able to get 15 strikeouts off the Phillies hitters and tonight may be no different. Severino has Cy Young stuff this season and he will look to put it on display against the free-swinging Phillies. He has had a few rough starts of late but still has amazing ones in between those. Severino has only allowed more than 3 ER in 1 start all season and has 11+ strikeout upside. The Yankees open up at a -220 favorite today and they face Arrieta who is not the same pitcher he was before.
Charlie Morton (10k FD) (12k DK) (22.8 k FD2) vs TOR
After the horrible outing by Verlander last night, the Astros and Charlie Morton will look to bounce back tonight. They open as a massive -260 favorite and will look for revenge tonight. Toronto has been very good of late but still have a 22.5% k rate over their L14. Morton is still pitching amazing this year with a 29.6% K rate and 1.13 WHIP and 3.43 SIERA. Morton’s sinker is very good and he will look to get a ton of grounders against the Jays. His SwStr% is at a career high right now and him, along with the rest of the Astros pitching staff. The Jays haven’t had as many at-bats against Morton, but in 51 they have just a .157 average and a 25.4% K rate. Morton has been a bit better at home this season, but really good all around. Over his last 2 starts, he has put up 40+ fanduel points in both starts and only has 4 games under 30 fanduel points all season. The Astros get to face rookie Ryan Borucki, and I do feel bad for him because the Astros will be out for vengeance.
Freddy Peralta (7.7k FD) (7.9k DK) (15.2k FD2) vs KC
Peralta is still fairly cheap, and I love picking on the Royals. The Brewers are implied over 5 runs tonight and have a -215 Vegas favorite to open. Peralta has elite strikeout upside and faces one of, if not the worst team in baseball right now. Over their L14, the Royals have a 24.7% K rate with a 38 wRC+ and just .228 wOBA. They did win 2-0 yesterday, but that is still nothing for me. Peralta has looked very good since getting called up. He has not pitched at home yet, but his road starts were pretty good, considering he had to face the Rockies in Coors for his debut. He showed elite strikeout stuff in the minors and so far it has translated into the MLB. Peralta is limiting people to a .113 average and has a 0.89 WHIP. In only 3 starts, he has a 28.6 Hard% and 2.85 SIERA. The way the Royals are playing right now, I have no problem rolling with the rookie in all formats tonight and a rather cheap price.
Reynaldo Lopez (6.7k FD) (6.3k DK) (13.1k FD2) vs MIN
Lopez is very cheap for this matchup tonight. People always ignore this young kid and I think he is a good tournament player. His strikeout stuff is not that good, but he hasn’t really gotten hurt too much by it. He has shown upside despite his low strikeout numbers. The Twins have not been striking out a lot, but they haven’t been doing all that much on offense. They have just a 74 wRC+ in their L14 vs RHP with a .281 wOBA. They are hitting at just a .220 clip as well. Please don’t look at his advanced stats, because they are horrible, but I do like something about him tonight. He is cheap and has shown 58 point upside even though he has a bunch of low scoring games. We would love a 25+ point game from him tonight. He got roughed up against them earlier this year and will look to get revenge here. Lopez has been much better at home with over a .100 point difference in wOBA compared to on the road. He is getting 11% less hard contact given up at home as well. For his price, I think we can roll him out in some MME type lineups.
Lance Lynn (8k FD) (7.3k DK) (14.9k FD2) @ CWS
Despite a few rough outings this year, Lynn has surprised me a lot. He has had 3 40 point fanduel games in his last 4 starts and 5 of his last 6 starts have more than 37 fanduel points too. Last time he faced these Twins he scored 43 points and went 6 innings with 7 K’s. The White Sox have been even worse vs RHP than the Twins and have a 28.3% K rate with a .272 wOBA. Lynn does have a 22.1% K rate this year but a high 14% walk rate. He’s almost impossible to use on DK/FD2 with a 1.60 WHIP, but on FD he could be okay in tournaments and has shown 40+ upside. Hate on this play if you want, but if he does good or crushes, I will stand behind him as a good GPP play against the awful White Sox.
Corey Kluber (11.8k FD) (12.9k DK) (25k FD2) @ STL
Clevinger had a tough time with the Cards last night, but I doubt Kluber does. The only this that will hurt him is getting pinch-hit for in the late stages of the game. Klubot has been fantastic this year and that is to no surprise of me. He has a 27.2% K rate and just 3% walk rate. He has just 2 walks over his last 6 starts and had his worst start of the season 2 starts ago when he gave up 4 runs to the Twins. The Cards have a 27% K rate to RHP in their L14 and their offense does not scare me much against Kluber. His numbers this year do not look as good as last year, but he still has been amazing. I don’t think he is a must, especially at his price, but he still is in a great spot against the Cardinals here tonight.
Ross Stripling (9.3k FD) (10.5k DK) (20.6k FD2) vs CHC
Ross gets his rematch against the Cubs and this time it’s on his turf. Even though he gave up 3 ER he still ended with 34 fanduel points. Strip has been amazing since becoming a full-time starter for the Dodgers and has had over 30 in just about every game and has even topped 60 in a start. He has shown elite strikeout upside with a 29.6% K rate and just a 3.8% walk rate. Stripling has a 1.04 WHIP this year with a wonderful 2.73 SIERA and allowing just 25.7% Hard%. Over 41 at-bats they have a .195 average against him with a .230 wOBA. Stripling has been amazing at home with a .258 wOBA allowed and just .219 average. Hitters are hitting just .232 against him and he has a .266 wOBA. The Cubs and Dodgers played a great game last night ending 2-1, and I expect something close to that tonight. Ross may get over-looked with the rest of the talent on the slate tonight and his elevated price tag.
MAIN SLATE RANKINGS
- James Paxton (all formats)
- Luis Severino (all formats)
- Corey Kluber (all formats, only 3rd because of his expensive price and the other two above have great matchups)
- Ross Stripling (all formats)
- Charlie Morton (more GPP)
- Freddy Peralta (all formats given the matchup, my favorite GPP play)
- Lance Lynn (GPP)
- Reynaldo Lopez (GPP)
Bats to target
Oakland A’s vs Blaine Hardy
Pittsburg Pirates (righties) vs Steven Matz
Conforto/Nimmo (if he plays) vs Chad Kuhl
Arizona Diamondbacks (all) vs Elieser Hernandez
Boston Red Sox (righties) vs John Lamb
Cincinnati Reds (all) vs Anibal Sanchez
Atlanta Braves (all) vs Matt Harvey
Houston Astros (all) vs Ryan Borucki
Cleveland Indians (lefties) vs Carlos Martinez
Colorado Rockies (righties) vs Derek Holland
