Welcome to the June 30th Edition of Painting the Black, an MLB Pitching Breakdown for Fanduel, DraftKings, and Fantasydraft!
In case you all didn’t know, my name is Matt, mdellagnese14 on twitter. I am currently a student at Springfield College with a love and passion for sports, mainly baseball.
I was brought to the DFS Army to write pitching articles for all members of the DFSArmy! If you are not a member, join the DFSArmy and use promo code “DFSMATT” to get 10% off your subscription!
I am mostly a Fanduel player, so the content in my articles will be for geared mainly towards Fanduel. However, I will include pricing from all three sites (Fanduel, Draftkings, FantasyDraft). Some plays may be better off for the two pitcher sites and I will mention that when needed about a pitcher.
Pitching is one of the most, if not the most important position in your MLB lineups and selecting the right one will help you tremendously. Go check out the MLB Pitching Strategy article to get my thought process on picking these pitchers each slate!
NOTE: most of the stats I used are from a 14-game sample to the handiness of pitchers. If I reference season numbers, I will mention that!
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If you find yourself thinking, “what do some of these stats mean?” Check out my new definitions article HERE. I explain what each stat I use mean, and reasons why I use those stats in my articles!
BULLPEN REPORTS
Yesterday’s Results
- Trevor Bauer (40 FD) (21.3 DK)
- Jacob deGrom (got scratched)
- Gerrit Cole (34 FD) (16.1 DK)
- Patrick Corbin (34 FD) (18.5 DK)
- Joe Musgrove (46 FD) (24.35 DK)
- Nick Pivetta (-12 FD) (-13.15 DK)
- Marco Gonzales (55 FD) (34.55 DK)
- Marcus Stroman (37 FD) (20.75 DK)
- Felix Pena (36 FD) (21.65 DK)
Main Slate
Chris Sale (12k FD) (13k DK) (24.9k FD2) @ NYY
No surprise here, Chris Sale is an elite pitcher even though he has a tough matchup with the Yankees. Sale comes into this start with a 35.6% K rate and wonderful 2.52 SIERA. Since two rough starts against Atlanta and Houston, he has been a man on a mission. Racking up 50+ fanduel points in his last 4 starts. His strikeouts have been up as well as he has 4 straight starts with 9 or more strikeouts. The Yankees have 97 at-bats against him and have just a .237 average with a 40.2% strikeout rate. Sale scored 49 fanduel points last time against the Yankees but they have been very hot lately. Being a Yankee fan, I know that they are suspect to going cold and Sale is an elite arm. Sale will likely be chalky on this main slate tonight, and he’s a great cash game option, but he will cost you.
Max Fried (5.9k FD) (5.7k DK) (10.9k FD2) @ STL
Not a name I thought was going to be in my article tonight, but the matchup is good for him as the Cardinals have been slumping of late. Looking at their projected lineup, they have just a .301 xwOBA and .123 ISO over their L14. They have not been striking out a ton (17.7%) in their projected lineup but they haven’t been doing much of anything. Fried has gotten 46% groundballs when he’s been in the MLB and got 57% in AAA this season. He also has a 12% SwStr% in the MLB this season with only 69% contact rate. Max has gone at least 6 innings in his last 3 minor league starts and should be good to go 5+ if he’s throwing well tonight. Deep GPP play only tonight though.
Kenta Maeda (8.9k FD) (11k DK) (21.5k FD2) vs COL
Maeda comes at a very nice discount from Sale and has a great matchup against the Rockies tonight. The Rockies come into this start with a team 23.8% K rate in their L14 and Maeda had an amazing start last time out scoring 58 fanduel points. He has been able to rack up the strikeouts this year and had 9 last start. On the season, he has a 27.5% strikeout rate and has a 3.65 SIERA. Maeda grades out very well with a DFSA Grade of 88.20 and is a nice -165 favorite right now. The Rockies are implied just 3.28 runs as of now and their projected lineup has an average DFSA Grade of 61. The Rockies have seen Maeda 92 times and have just a .207 average with a .265 wOBA and a 32.6% strikeout rate. Maeda will likely garner ownership off of Sale, but he’s still a great play at home tonight.
Bartolo Colon (6.5k FD) (5.1k DK) (10.1k FD2) vs CHW
Wow, I cannot believe I am actually writing up Bartolo Colon right now. But, the lineups page for the White Sox made me intrigued. Their projected lineup has awful numbers over their L14 vs RHP. I know Colon isn’t that good, but he can surprise us sometimes. They have an xwOBA of just .287 and have a .148 ISO with a 26.17% strikeout rate. People love to stack against good ole Bartolo, but if his 2-seamer is moving he can still be hard to hit. I’m not saying he’s going to shut them out, but their lineup isn’t good right now and Colon could score 20+ tonight on fanduel. DEEP GPP flier if you are MME’ing I wouldn’t hate 1-2 lineups with him.
Trevor Williams (6.8k FD) (6.4k DK) (12.6k FD2) @ SD
Outside of Sale and Maeda, the pitching is pretty ugly tonight. Trevor Williams has been iffy all season, but his last two starts have been pretty good. The Padres are a team that is slumping right now and have a 28.5% K rate over their L14. They have a .264 wOBA and 67 wRC+ and virtually have no power. Looking at their projected lineup there is so much red. They have an xwOBA of .270 with a .097 ISO and a high 24.5% K rate. San Diego has only 2 guys with lower than a 20% K rate in their L14 vs RHP. They grade out very low too at just 61.81. This is a nice park for Williams to pitch in too. Another deep GPP play, but not much outside of Sale or Maeda are that safe.
Felix Hernandez (7.8k FD) (8.1k DK) (16.3k FD2) vs KC
The Royals are a team that we absolutely love to pick on right now. King Felix has always been very good at home and his home/road splits are pretty drastic. His ERA is 3 runs lower at home and he allows a .306 wOBA at home compared to .360 on the road. Over 102 at-bats against Felix, they have just a .245 average and .147 ISO. The Royals look terrible as their projected lineup has just a .242 xwOBA in their L14 and a .109 ISO. Felix has shown us upside and 4 of his last 5 starts have been very good. Keep picking on a team when they are down and Felix can bring us another 30+ point outing tonight.
MAIN SLATE RANKINGS
- Chris Sale (All formats)
- Kenta Maeda (all formats)
- Felix Hernandez (GPP)
- Trevor Williams (GPP)
- Max Fried (GPP)
- Bartolo Colon (GPP)
