Welcome to the June 28th Edition of Painting the Black, an MLB Pitching Breakdown for Fanduel, DraftKings, and Fantasydraft!
In case you all didn’t know, my name is Matt, mdellagnese14 on twitter. I am currently a student at Springfield College with a love and passion for sports, mainly baseball.
I was brought to the DFS Army to write pitching articles for all members of the DFSArmy! If you are not a member, join the DFSArmy and use promo code “DFSMATT” to get 10% off your subscription!
I am mostly a Fanduel player, so the content in my articles will be for geared mainly towards Fanduel. However, I will include pricing from all three sites (Fanduel, Draftkings, FantasyDraft). Some plays may be better off for the two pitcher sites and I will mention that when needed about a pitcher.
Pitching is one of the most, if not the most important position in your MLB lineups and selecting the right one will help you tremendously. Go check out the MLB Pitching Strategy article to get my thought process on picking these pitchers each slate!
NOTE: most of the stats I used are from a 14-game sample to the handiness of pitchers. If I reference season numbers, I will mention that!
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If you find yourself thinking, “what do some of these stats mean?” Check out my new definitions article HERE. I explain what each stat I use mean, and reasons why I use those stats in my articles!
BULLPEN REPORTS
*will be updated later or posted in slack*
Yesterday’s Results
- Madison Bumgarner (49 FD) (29.35 DK)
- Shane Bieber (40 FD) (20.1 DK)
- Alex Wood (40 FD) (21.55 DK)
- Kyle Gibson (27 FD) (12.55 DK)
- Clayton Richard (18 FD) (5.35 DK)
- Zack Wheeler (46 FD) (26.15 DK)
Early Slate
Zack Greinke (9.8k FD) (10.6k DK) @ MIA
I normally do not like picking on the Marlins, but Greinke has been pretty consistent this season. He does come into this game with a 26% K rate and just 5% walk rate on the year with a 1.11 WHIP and 3.30 SIERA. The Marlins have the 3rd highest wRC+ over the L14 vs RHP but still, have a 23.7% K rate. Greinke is a type pitcher who can shut down any offense and the Marlins should not scare anyone off him today. His last start against them he went 6.2 innings with 6 K’s and scored 45 fanduel points. Greinke likely will not score more than 50 fanduel points since he’s only done it once this year, but he is a steady 30-50 point scorer, normally in the low to mid-40s. Arizona has been pretty good lately and I think Zack has a great chance at the win today.
Mike Leake (8k FD) (6.4k DK) (12.6k FD2) @ BAL
Baltimore is not an easy place to pitch, and they have been heating up of late. Mike Leake is not a pretty play, but somehow he has been consistent despite his lack of strikeouts. He just shut out the Red Sox at Fenway last start and that was good for 49 fanduel points. Before his bad start at home against the Sox, he had 5 straight games with 30 or more fanduel points. Leake has the ability to go deep into games too as he has at least 6 innings in 7 straight starts. Baltimore has been hitting a little more lately and only have a 22.6% K rate in their L14 though. He has been successful by getting 49% groundballs this year even though he’s getting his hard. Leake is not a pretty play, but he could pop off for another 30+ point game this afternoon.
Clayton Kershaw (10.5k FD) (11.7k DK) (23.1k FD2) vs CHC
Alex Wood just mowed down this Cubs lineup and they still aren’t good against lefties. Kershaw was limited his last start to 55 pitches, but he was healthy and said he felt good. I can see him still being a bit limited here this afternoon, but could still go deep into the game if the Cubs are free-swinging. The Cubs have a 25.5% K rate vs LHP in the L14 with a .281 wOBA and 75 wRC+. Despite not being that healthy all season, he still has a 26.6% K rate, but his walks are elevated to 5.6%. He still has a 3.24 SIERA, which will likely lower if he can stay healthy. The Cubs do not really scare me all that much, especially in LA where Kershaw has always pitched very good. If we get the news he will be limited to less than 90 pitches, I won’t recommend using him at all, but as of now, he’s a great option for me this afternoon.
Jon Gray (8.4k FD) (9.5k DK) (18.8k FD2) @ SF
What can we say about Jon Gray? He has been so good this year both in and outside of Coors. Well, this start he is in a very nice ballpark against the Giants. San Fran comes into this game with a 20.1% K rate, but just a .222 average and lower .283 wOBA. Gray has pitched to a 28.6% K rate this season and his walks are actually not as high as they could be. He has a great SIERA at 3.16 this season and getting 46% groundballs. Andrew McCutchen has the best numbers against Gray as he’s 7-12 with 2 doubles. No one else has that much history against him that would talk me off him. Gray has gotten more than 9 strikeouts in 3 straight starts and was marvelous against the Marlins last time out. He struggled bad against the Giants in his last start allowing 4 runs and just scoring 13 fanduel points. His history against the Giants is not good this season, but we cannot ignore his upside today. I won’t touch him in cash games, but he’s usually a great GPP option.
EARLY SLATE RANKINGS
- Zack Greinke (all formats)
- Clayton Kershaw (all formats)
- Jon Gray (GPP)
- Mike Leake (GPP)
Bats to target
Colorado Rockies (all) vs Chris Stratton
Arizona Diamondbacks (Righties) vs Trevor Richards
Nicholas Castellanos vs Sean Manaea
Oakland A’s (all) vs Michael Fulmer
Chicago White Sox/Minnesota Twins (game stack)
Baltimore Orioles (all) vs Mike Leake
MAIN SLATE
Aaron Nola (9.7k FD) (12.1k DK) (22.9k FD2) vs WSH
Nola has been nothing short of amazing all season. As Walsh says in slack, “It’s Aaron Nola Day!” He just squared off against the Nationals and scored 37 fanduel points. The Nats have been in a little slump lately though and have a 23.5% K rate vs RHP with a 79 wRC+ and .289 wOBA. Nola comes into this start with a great 25% K rate and 1.02 WHIP, pitching to a 3.50 SIERA. He has increased his groundball rate almost 3% this year and is getting 2% less hard contact. Nola is showing a career-high 11.2% SwStr% along with career highs in O-Swing%, Z-Swing%, Swing%, and F-Strike%. He’s also getting a low 76% contact rate on the season. Harper has tagged him with 2 HR in his career and some of the Nationals have had success against him, but I’m not all that worried as he has been lights out at home this year. At home he’s pitching to a .230 wOBA, getting 30.2% K rate with a 0.91 WHIP. Feel free to use Nola in all formats tonight.
Lance McCullers (10.4k FD) (11.1k DK) (21.6k FD2) @ TB
McCullers has really been great of late and he is getting his strikeouts up and has scored 40+ fanduel points in his last 3 starts. The Rays are among the worst teams in baseball over the L14. They have a 28.4% K rate with a 65 wRC+ and just .262 wOBA. McCullers, along with the rest of the Astros pitching has been amazing this year and their offense is clicking on all cylinders. He comes into this start with a 25.7% K rate but his walks have been up which isn’t good. Despite the higher walk rate, he does have a lower WHIP this year than last, meaning he is giving up fewer hits. McCullers isn’t getting as many GB as he was last year and that could be a reason for some of his struggles. On this small slate, and he’s facing the Rays, he is going to be my top play of the slate.
I believe the other pitchers in this slate are VERY risky, if you want to throw anyone out on the small 4-gamer I won’t disagree. Just know the big risk that you have for it.
If I had to list the other pitchers in order from who I would want to use after the two written up above it would be; Roark, Guerra, Johnson, Barria, DeSclafani. I would recommend just taking this main slate off and saving your bankroll for tomorrow’s big slate!
