Welcome to the June 14th Edition of Painting the Black, an MLB Pitching Breakdown for Fanduel, DraftKings, and Fantasydraft!
In case you all didn’t know, my name is Matt, mdellagnese14 on twitter. I am currently a student at Springfield College with a love and passion for sports, mainly baseball.
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I am mostly a Fanduel player, so the content in my articles will be for geared mainly towards Fanduel. However, I will include pricing from all three sites (Fanduel, Draftkings, FantasyDraft). Some plays may be better off for the two pitcher sites and I will mention that when needed about a pitcher.
Pitching is one of the most, if not the most important position in your MLB lineups and selecting the right one will help you tremendously. Go check out the MLB Pitching Strategy article to get my thought process on picking these pitchers each slate!
NOTE: most of the stats I used are from a 14-game sample to the handiness of pitchers. If I reference season numbers, I will mention that!
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Definitions of Stats used in articles via Fangraphs.com
K% (Strikeout Percentage): Frequency with which the pitcher has struck out a batter, calculated as strikeouts divided by total batters faced.
An average K% is 20%, anything above is considered great or elite
BB% (Walk Percentage): Frequency with which the pitcher has issued a walk, calculated as walks divided by total batters faced. Average BB% for pitchers is 7.7%, anything lower is considered great or elite
BABIP (Batting Average on Balls in Play): The rate at which the pitcher allows a hit when the ball is put in play. A BABIP at or near .300 is considered average. EXAMPLE: if a pitcher has a BABIP of .200 it means he could be getting lucky and balls in play are turned into outs if they have a BABIP of .400 he could be getting unlucky on balls in play and they are turning into hits.
xFIP (Expected Fielding Independent Pitching): An estimate of a pitcher’s ERA based on strikeouts, walks/HBP, and fly balls allowed, assuming league average results on balls in play and home run to fly ball ratio. The Lower the xFIP the better. 3.80 is around average.
SIERA (Skill-Interactive ERA): An ERA estimator that attempts to more accurately capture a pitcher’s performance based on strikeouts, walks/HBP, home runs, and batted ball data. The lower the better 3.90 is considered average, so anything below that is great to excellent. Anything about is poor.
Hard% (Hard Contact Percentage): Percentage of hard-hit batted balls. Anything below 30% is considered average or better. the lower Hard% the better, meaning pitchers are giving up more soft contact.
wRC+: A rate statistic that credits a hitter for the value of each outcome rather than treating them all equally. League average is 100, each point above or below that is one percentage point better or worse than league average. wRC+ is a better representation of offense value.
O-Swing% = Swings at pitches outside the zone/pitches outside the zone
Z-Swing% = Swings at pitches inside the zone/pitches inside the zone
Swing% = Swings/Pitches
O-Contact% = Number of pitches on which contact was made on pitches outside the zone / Swings on pitches outside the zone
Z-Contact% = Number of pitches on which contact was made on pitches inside the zone / Swings on pitches inside the zone
SwStr% = Swings and misses/Total Pitches
BULLPEN REPORTS
EARLY SLATE
German Marquez (7.7k FD) (5.3k DK) (10.1k FD2) @ PHI
Marquez has been a lot better on the road this season and he does get a great matchup this afternoon. The Phillies were awful yesterday against Anderson, and they are not much better against RHP. Over their L14 vs RHP, they have just a 61 wRC+, 30% K rate, and .259 wOBA. On the road this year, he has just a .267 wOBA, .200 BAA, and also has a 3.8% increase in strikeouts on the road. His home WHIP is almost 2, while his road WHIP is 1.09. He just can’t pitch that well in Coors and the stats show it. He has amazing upside in this matchup against the Phillies who love to swing and miss. No one on their team has higher than a 71% contact rate against his curveball, which he throws 25% of the time. They also have an average whiff rate of 35.66% which is fairly high. Marquez also has a 31.58% whiff rate on his curveball. It seems many people will be on the Phillies offense today, but Marquez is looking better and better for me this afternoon.
Lance Lynn (7.5k FD) (6.9k DK) (13.9k FD2) @ DET
Lynn is never a big name that people go jumping at, but he’s pitched well. If he can keep his walks down, he normally has good games. Lynn does have issues with his control a lot where he can get up to 6 walks a game. His WHIP makes it hard to use him on DK/FD2, but it does not hurt on fanduel. He has faced some tough opponents in his last 4 games (vs LAA, vs CLE, @ KC, and vs DET). In those games, he has scored 40, 40, 37, and 42 fanduel points. Lynn’s ability to go 6 innings will help him as long as he’s throwing the ball well. He has struggled on the road this season, but I think he could be worth a GPP shot against DET who has a 23.8% K rate and just 61 wRC+ in their L14. He is by no means safe, and I wish he was at home, but he has had 2 very good starts on the road this year and his worst road games came against the Pirates (1st start of the season), the Yankees, and Angels, all of which are tough to pitch to.
Mike Clevinger (8.8k FD) (9.7k DK) (18.4k FD2) @ CWS
I will keep picking on the White Sox until they show they won’t strike out. They are almost as bad as the Phillies with strikeouts in the last two week. The White Sox have a 28% K rate vs RHP, 66 wRC+, .267 wOBA, and just .209 average. Their walk rate is also under 6%, which shows they are not working the counts. Clevinger has the ability to rack up strikeouts in a hurry but can struggle with command. His strikeouts are down this year, but his walks are as well. Last start against the White Sox he was able to score 48 fanduel points going 6.2 innings with 7 K’s and just 1 ER. They only have 42 career at-bats against him, but still only have 9 hits and have a 28% K rate against him. Clevinger will be the chalk on this early slate, and I’m fine with eating it.
Carlos Rodon (6.3k FD) (6.3k DK) (12.6k FD2) vs CLE
He will not be this cheap for very long, so I would take advantage of it. Rodon just made his first start against the Sox this season after recovering from shoulder surgery this offseason. As Mitch (Donuts) mentioned, the Indians are not that great on the road of late. Over their L14 vs LHP, they have just a 57 wRC+ and a 28.2% K rate. Granted, they have not faced a lot of lefties of late, keep that in mind. The Indians have seen Rodon 122 times, with just a .221 average, .251 wOBA, and .098 ISO, with a 25.4% K rate. In his minor league rehab starts, he was getting a ton of groundballs (around 60%) and that will be key today against the Indians. While people will look to stack Cleveland, I wouldn’t mind taking shots on Rodon who was able to put up 30 fanduel points in his first start against Boston in just 5 innings.
Justin Verlander (11.4k FD) (13.1k DK) (25.8k FD2) @ OAK
Verlander is on the DK early slate, but not on the fanduel early slate. With all of the cheap options on this early slate, it should be easy to fit Verlander as your SP1, and use any of the other cheaper guys as your SP2. Verlander has just been amazing this year and he is not showing any signs of slowing down. He consistently puts up 40+ fanduel points and can get you up over 50 as well. Verlander’s high flyball rate still hasn’t hurt him, and Oakland has a huge ballpark that won’t yield many home runs. Justin is pitching to a 2.96 SIERA and allowing just 26.5% Hard contact with a 32.1% K rate and under 6% walk rate. If you can fit him, he’s definitely the best play for whichever slate(s) he is on.
EARLY SLATE RANKINGS
- Justin Verlander (all formats)
- Mike Clevinger (all formats)
- German Marquez (GPP)
- Lance Lynn (GPP)
- Carlos Rodon (GPP)
This early slate seems more like a tournament slate to me. Mix and match any of these 5 on DraftKings and Fantasydraft. Fanduel you can use any of them, and I would recommend making 4 lineups (IF YOU CAN) and use each of them! (Verlander is not on FD early slate)
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MAIN SLATE
Blake Snell (9.2k FD) (10.9k DK) (21.6k FD2) @ NYY
Picking on the Yankees is never a good choice, but I am interested in Snell tonight. He has looked amazing all year and really has had just 2 bad starts on the season. Snell has had just 4 starts under 30 fanduel points and has elite strikeout upside. Coming into this start, he has a 27.4% K rate on the season with a WHIP under 1.00. His SIERA is 3.48 and has an elite 13% SwStr% on the season. The Yankees roster has a few at-bats against him, but not enough to take me off Snell in tournaments. Sanchez has the best numbers off him with 3 home runs in 10 at-bats. Despite having the 3rd highest wRC+ vs LHP, the Yanks also have a 24.5% K rate. If Snell gives up a couple of runs, he still has the ability to even those out with strikeouts. On a small slate, it is worth taking a risk like this one.
Domingo German (7k FD) (6.7k DK) (13k FD2) vs TB
I was not on German at first, then looked at his DFSA Grade. He grades out as an 84.47 grade which is our 2nd highest rated pitcher on this main slate tonight.
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German has been very shaky so far this season, but he does have the upside in a favorable matchup tonight. He has shown that he can get up to 9 strikeouts this season, but he tends to give up a bunch of runs. Luckily for him, the Rays are not that good right now. Over the L14, they have a 23.6% K rate. Their projected starting lineup has an xwOBA of just .301 with an ISO of .120. German has a 26% K rate this year and despite his struggles, his SIERA is still around average at 3.71.
Matt Koch (5.8k FD) (6.2k DK) (11.7k FD2) vs NYM
Oh, look, another pitcher against the Mets. I’m going to keep picking on the Mets until they show they can hit the baseball. Over their L14 vs RHP, they rank last in wRC+, wOBA, AVG, OBP, SLG, and OPS. That is 6 major categories that show how an offense is doing. They also have the 2nd highest K% against RHP at 28.6%. Koch is nearly min price across the board. He is not a big strikeout guy and never has been. He is not a guy who will light anyone up, and he very well could give up a ton of runs. The Mets offense is just so bad right now, Koch is worth the risk in tournaments.
David Price (8.4k FD) (8.6k DK) (16.9k FD2) @ SEA
I do not love Price much, but we need options and he actually has been pretty good on the road this season. He’s allowed just a .285 wOBA on the road with a .229 average against. Price has been able to get 5% more strikeouts and has a better xFIP on the road by 1.31. For some reason, he has been able to get more groundballs pitching on the road (8% more). In 91 at-bats against him, the Mariners have a .220 average and .311 wOBA with a 26% strikeout rate. Seattle has been very hot of late so Price is very risky, but we have to pitch someone on this main slate.
MAIN SLATE RANKINGS
No rankings for me on this main slate today. Every pitcher theoretically could have a good game and none are safe. I would not play cash games on this slate either. Be smart, save your bankroll for tomorrow’s big slate! Good Luck!
