Hello everyone, and welcome to the MLB cash academy! I go by nillyJay in the DFS Army where I coach and contribute content for MLB, NASCAR, and all things cash games related (such as proper bankroll management and cash ladders). You can find me on Twitter or in our Slack channels @nillyJay.
The purpose of these articles is to teach you how to find players to use for cash games, as well as giving out a few that my research has put me on (and why I chose them). The idea here isn’t to just say “lock these guys and run an optimizer.” Rather, I want to encourage everyone to work on their research process and dig a little deeper to find players in good spots instead of just settling on players that fit the salary cap.
The basics
Cash games don’t need to be difficult, so the theme here will be simplicity. While baseball can be a very complex sport, there’s enough data and statistics we can use to quickly identify when a player is in a good or bad spot. Here are the most common ones I use for this purpose:
wOBA – Weighted on-base average (wOBA) essentially measures a batter’s offensive contribution. We want this as high as possible for our batters (I like .380 and higher) and as low as possible for our pitchers (I want .250 or lower here).
ISO – Isolated power (ISO) measures a batter’s hitting power (extra base hits). Bigger hits lead to more fantasy production (especially home runs), so we want this as high as we can get (.200 or higher). For pitchers, of course, we want this as low as possible (preferably .125 or lower).
K% – Strikeout percentage (K% or krate) tells us how often a batter strikes out. Once again, we want this as low as possible for our batters (I like to see 20% or less). Somebody can go 0 for 5 but still have a chance at fantasy production if they are putting the ball in play, but not if they strike out. For pitchers, we want this as high as we can get (I like to find pitchers approaching a 30% or higher K%).
DFSA grade – Unique to the DFS Army, a player’s DFSA grade is a rating of their overall matchup on a scale of 1 to 100. For both batters and pitchers, I like to see 80 or higher for cash games. The full list can be found in our Research Station.
Carnage – Also unique to the DFS Army is my own personal metric, carnage. This is a measure of a team’s offensive firepower on a scale of 1 to 10. I mainly use it to help select pitchers, where I want a score of 3 or lower. Any pitchers named in this article will include their carnage rating, but the full list can only be found in my Slack channel (#nillys-garage-nas-mlb).
Recent data – Baseball is a game that goes in streaks, both hot and cold. Because of this, I put a higher importance on more recent data. Somebody may have been crushing the ball two months ago, but that doesn’t make them a great choice today if they’re 1 for their last 23 with ten strikeouts. I like to look at the last 7-10 days for batters and the last 5-6 starts for pitchers. It’s not a bad idea to compare their current and season-long stats to see if they are over/under-performing, so keep that in mind as an option as well.
Cash players – 6/9/2018
Since this is a split-slate day, I’m going to grab a few players from both the early and main slates today. Saturday bonus!
Early / all day slate
Blake Snell ($9,500 FD, $11,800 DK) – Snell finds himself in a great spot today. While either him or David Price could be called the top option for the early games, I’m giving the edge to Snell as my top call this morning. His 3.16 carnage is the best on the early slate and he has a better BvP advantage (nobody on the Mariners has more than 7 plate appearances against him). He also has a very low combo of .143 wOBA / .016 ISO over his last few starts, along with a healthy 31.60% krate. I have both of these guys projected for about 5.5 strikeouts, but I like Snell’s chances of success better. Did I mention he has no fewer than 7 strikeouts in each of his last four games? That 5.5 projection might be selling him a little short!
Curtis Granderson ($2,800 FD, $3,600 DK) – Curtis is starting to heat up and has been leading off at a discounted price, all of which are great for us. His BvP against Gausman (3 for 7 with two home runs) is a nice bonus. You can also pair him with Russell Martin, Randal Grichuk, or Justin Smoak for a two-man mini stack (all three have .400+ wOBA and .333+ ISO against RHP over their last ten games).
Ian Kinsler ($3,100 FD, $3,600 DK) – Weather concerns aside, Kinsler has both good recent batting numbers (.390 wOBA, .455 ISO) and a good history against Gibson (14 for 44 with two home runs and only 5 strikeouts), so he makes a solid play. Justin Upton makes a good two-man mini stack option, or there’s always Mike Trout if you have the salary for him.
Jason Kipnis ($3,400 FD, $3,400 DK) – Most Cleveland batters are expensive, but we can sometimes find a good one at a discount. This is one of those times, as Kipnis offers a .357 wOBA and .200 ISO at a fair price. With 11 hits in his last 10 games, he’s proving to be a consistent producer and looks to be a fine cash play against the always-targetable Fiers.
Main slate
Charlie Morton ($10,000 FD, $12,400 DK) – There aren’t many good pitching options on the main slate, but Morton stands above the others today. He has a 2.82 carnage rating, which is quite a bit lower than everybody else. He has the highest strikeout rate at 34.40% and best Vegas odds (-182 moneyline), so on a short slate with rough options, our safest option is to go straight to the top.
Tyler Flowers ($2,900 FD, $3,600 DK) – Morton is expensive, but value batters like Flowers can make it happen. He has the same dual-threat as some of the others today, with both good recent numbers (.389 wOBA / 15.38% krate) and good BvP against Wood (5 for 8 with only 1 strikeout). Don’t worry about taking a batter against Wood, as he’s giving up .468 wOBA and only striking out 20.80% of the batters he’s faced recently.
Paul Goldschmidt ($4,800 FD, $5,300 DK) – Paul will probably be chalky, but for good reason. He too has both sets of numbers going for him; .644 wOBA, .588 ISO, 11.11% krate over his last 10 games and is 8 for 20 (one home run) against Bettis. Speaking of Bettis, he’s only striking out 16.30% of his batters here recently, so this is a good time to attack him and his .386 wOBA.
Evan Gattis ($2,900 FD, $4,100 DK) – Gattis is hitting the ball around pretty well right now, as indicated by his .432 wOBA, .429 ISO, and 12.50% krate as of late. Minor is getting hit from both sides of the plate (and is only striking out 20.20% of batters right now), so you can pair Gattis with almost anyone else from the Astros. Marwin Gonzalez makes a good partner, as he’s the cheapest player who is also smashing the ball. This is a good way to get cheap exposure to a 5.47 implied run total.
That’s going to do it for now. If you like what you see here, I encourage you to give us a look and consider signing up. We cover every sport and have a lot of stuff coming up this weekend, including two NASCAR races and a very nice looking MMA card. If you decide to join up, be sure to use promo code NILLY for a 10% discount for the life of your active membership. Good luck today!
