Hey, hey, hey…..it’s your DFS MLB buddy @Choppodong!! I am a coach and contributor inside DFS Army, where our entire goal is teaching you the fundamentals that will make you a better, more competitive player as quickly as possible.
Give me a follow on Twitter and YouTube for the latest content drops and video uploads. Use code CHOP for a 10% discount, and get busy learning/winning today!! As always, your best compliment is retweeting and/or sharing this information across social media. Thank you!
Remember, this article is designed to get you pointed in the right direction. It’s not a slate write-up and it’s not a player picks piece. I would rather get you started, then have you interact with us in our VIP slack forums as we banter picks and strategies back and forth. Learning MLB the right way is the fastest way to grow your skill level.
DFS Army is about teaching first. This is a video breakdown covering the important parts of today’s slates….you might even get some tips as I walk through my process. Even I don’t know what I’m going to say… (June 1)
Back to Basics
It’s always a good idea to know which teams are scoring runs and which are giving them up. I will simply sort by the last 30 days and rank the teams. Here are your top 10 in terms of runs scored and your top 10 highest team ERAs (worst pitching).
This week, we try to focus on playing the top 10 offenses where it makes sense and attacking the highest 10 team ERAs. If any of them should directly matchup, we look to exploit it pretty hard. For example, on Monday, we get Yankees/Tigers. That’s pretty sweet right out of the gate.
MLB DFS Pitching
We are always looking for the best combination of price, Vegas, strikeout upside, and matchup (ballparks, weather, etc). We will normally be looking to the top tier on Fanduel and will likely come off that a little so we can afford a decent SP2 on Draftkings. Generic rules like that always have exceptions. Be flexible. KScore is the pitcher’s strikeout potential with the opposing team’s vulnerability to striking out. The DFSA Grade is proprietary to our VIPs but will give you guys something to track in terms of a catch-all safety rating.
Main Slate Pitching Roundup
Huge slate of 15 games, as is normal for a Tuesday. Series have all shifted, so we also have new matchups for a few days. Mild weather concerns in WAS and CIN tonight with lesser concerns in BOS. You will find outstanding pitching on the slate with some big names, and your bigger offensive predictions at first look are: BOS, NYY, OAK, and LAA all carrying over 5.00 implied team totals.
Of course, these days it all starts with Max Scherzer. He might be the new Kershaw. Very expensive, costs you bats and stacks, but so reliable in cash formats you just have to consider him the lead for any contest rewarding safety. Nearly a 600 KScore in almost every start, 75 point Fanduel upside, and huge Vegas support make him just the lock down pitcher every night he toes the rubber. Coming off him means you are gambling on volatile bats striking gold and overtaking him….a tall order if he tests his ceiling.
Corey Kluber is another that warrants Scherzer/Kershaw type consideration most nights. But, when matching up against Scherzer, I’m taking Max. We are only talking about $500 and we haven’t yet seen the dominating Kluber of last year with enough consistency to think he’s better than Scherzer. Stick with what you know. This, of course, makes Kluber a great gpp pivot if you are willing to gamble on Max having a mediocre night.
James Paxton feels a little pricey to be tackling HOU with him. The underdog status doesn’t help, either. I can see him as another gpp pivot, but if I’m willing to gamble like this, I’d rather take the spin of the roulette wheel with some pretty big names even cheaper. Paxton is clearly lost in the pricing shuffle tonight.
Madison Bumgarner and Carlos Martinez are both coming off injuries. That, alone, carries enough risk to make them gpp only plays. They will both certainly be monitored by their respective training staffs, but they can both really light up a slate. I’m taking more of a wait and see approach with both, but I might be more inclined to gamble on them before James Paxton just for fun. Why fun? Because DFS is supposed to be fun. Calculated gambles are different then just throwing darts. And, if you aren’t having fun with DFS, you are just doing it wrong.
Sean Newcomb is feeling like he’ll be forgotten. And, he’s honestly where I’d go before Paxton tonight. I never mind picking on Padres bats. Newcomb’s KScore shows some upside, the price is palatable, and I can’t see a lot of people using Newcomb on such a large slate. Another viable strategy is using him in the later slates to diversify your night’s overall exposure a bit. For more on that, we can discuss those types of techniques in Slack this evening.
Andrew Heaney rounds out the pitchers I’m looking at and I know I left a few off the list. Why leave some of those names off the list? Well, their KScores aren’t approaching 500. With this many pitchers to choose from, I’m drawing lines and cutting lists down as efficiently as possible. Why dig deep into Junior Guerra when there are 5 pitchers in better matchups? I’d be insane to use him and think he’s going to outperform all of them and justify the risk. Save Guerra types for shorter slates where pivoting to them makes more sense. Pivoting to lower tier players on large slates is another quick highway to Bustotown…..a place we never want to go.
Heaney is cheap and facing the power-challenged Royals. He has some strikeout potential, but carries a solid moneyline out of Vegas. Did I mention he’s cheap? of the 8k options, he’s about the strongest one on the board and allows you some bats. I don’t ever count on these pitchers to pan out, but when they do and my bats mix with them, the 100man leagues I like so much are easy to cash. Would I use him in a 5050? No. I might ladder with him because I am gunning for the 100mans and gpps in those, but I also am prepared to accept the risk I’m taking.
DFS is about gambling. We can put all sorts of rules on ourselves and try to be perfectly disciplined, or we can loosen up sometimes and have fun rooting for combos of players we know aren’t likely to succeed but we want to root for anyway. We don’t want to do this all the time. But, if DFS is so rigid with rules you aren’t having as much fun anymore……………loosen the hell up a little! Take the pressure off yourself. You’ll likely enjoy the game more and free your mind up to think creatively.
Want more pitching breakdowns? See MDell’s article our members are raving about – Painting the Black
MLB Pitching to Exploit
I’m not going into much detail here. Just rest assured if our DFSA Grades like the aces with high marks, they are going to hate the scrubs with low marks. For one, Alex Cobb is currently sporting a 13.33ish ERA. Now, it won’t stay that way for long, but get on these guys while they are struggling. That’s what DFS is all about. In parentheses are the bats you should be stacking, especially when it’s also a high-powered offense….
MAIN
Wright (DET)
Moore(OAK)
Vargas (BAL)
Urena (@STL)
Estrada (NYY)
Guerra (CLE)
Lewicki (@BOS)
How about some more winning?! I change these screenshots like I change mistresses. Seriously, why are you just taking the free content? Why aren’t you in here receiving the tools, optimizer, and coaching? These guys are, and these guys are dominating the competition.
DFS MLB Bats and Stack Considerations
I focus on attacking the pitchers above, and I love it when I see Vegas supporting the cause or a high powered offense matching up with these attackable pitchers. I will then focus on the better bats within the offense and key in on our batters grading out over 75 in our Research Station. Bear in mind, I’m listing day-to-day and 10day DL guys, too. Your job is to follow the news, or plug into our Slack Channels and get the details as our slates lock for the day.
Main Offenses to Stack
NYY – Judge, Andujar, Gardner, Romine
BOS – JD Martinez, Benintendi, Bradley, Leon, Bogaerts
OAK – KDavis, Olson
PHI – Santana, Williams, Alfaro
NYM – Nimmo, Conforto, Bautista
BAL – Valencia, Jones
Today is odd in that we can both use some of the pitchers and stack against them because either scenario is more than possible.
For more on DFS Stacking, see CeeGee’s article – MLB DFS Top Stacks
#DongCall Time!
This section takes on a change. I will simply leave it at my #200on200 guys for the foreseeable future. Posting pictures on the web is becoming more trouble than it’s worth, and it’s not like many people comment out on Twitter anyway. That’s a shame because it was fun.
#200on200 – #DongCall worthy
MAIN – Schwarber, Rizzo, Freeman, Olson, Soler, SPerez
Very short list for such a big slate.
Pay attention to the other DFS Army articles like Dong Detector for deeper dives into which bats are in the best spots. Hopefully, your research is started for today. If it feels like it’s pointing in a funky direction, no worries…….I feel just like you right now. Let’s keep our eyes peeled for directions the industry is pointing and re-evaluate as the day goes on. We can zig when they zag or hide in the herd. The choice is ours, and we will be discussing it in our Slack Forums all day long. Join us!
Final MLB DFS Thoughts
For MLB cash games, keep the stacking to a minimum. You can’t afford to grab stack Rockies in Coors and have them fall flat, which they occasionally do. ISO is a great stat to look at with wOBA for hitter-friendly parks. Remember to head over to DFSARMY.com, your one-stop-shop for stats, player recommendations, coaching, winning lineups discussion, and everything DFS related. Use code CHOP to trigger a 10% discount every month as long as you remain a member regardless of any future price increases. You are grandfathered in at your rate permanently!!
Your greatest compliment is helping me spread the word. Retweets and shoutouts are my favorite. Feel free to use #DongCall when you hit yours, too!
