Hey, hey, hey…..it’s your DFS MLB buddy @Choppodong!! I am a coach and contributor inside DFS Army, where our entire goal is teaching you the fundamentals that will make you a better, more competitive player as quickly as possible.
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Remember, this article is designed to get you pointed in the right direction. It’s not a slate write-up and it’s not a player picks piece. I would rather get you started, then have you interact with us in our VIP slack forums as we banter picks and strategies back and forth. Learning MLB the right way is the fastest way to grow your skill level.
DFS Army is about teaching first. This is a video breakdown covering the important parts of today’s slates….you might even get some tips as I walk through my process. Even I don’t know what I’m going to say… (June 1)
#FreebieFriday!! ^
Back to Basics
It’s always a good idea to know which teams are scoring runs and which are giving them up. I will simply sort by the last 30 days and rank the teams. Here are your top 10 in terms of runs scored and your top 10 highest team ERAs (worst pitching).
The very basic idea is to try and play offensive players from the teams scoring runs and try to attack the pitchers from the teams giving them up. If you see CLE going up against KCR, for example, you should have a pretty good matchup most times.
MLB DFS Pitching
We are always looking for the best combination of price, Vegas, strikeout upside, and matchup (ballparks, weather, etc). We will normally be looking to the top tier on Fanduel and will likely come off that a little so we can afford a decent SP2 on Draftkings. Generic rules like that always have exceptions. Be flexible. KScore is the pitcher’s strikeout potential with the opposing team’s vulnerability to striking out. The DFSA Grade is proprietary to our VIPs but will give you guys something to track in terms of a catch-all safety rating.
Main Slate Pitching Roundup
Huge slate full of games. Watch for the mini-slates as those often change the chalk on a dime. We should have some great sized minis today, too. Watch slack for notes if the coaches are playing the smaller slates.
When it comes to Chris Sale, I’m shocked Garrit Cole is more expensive. Sale blows away the KScore and DFSA Grade. It’s a shame he’s the underdog, but it’s only slightly at +120. I know HOU is hot right now and will give him potential fits, but BOS can steal this one on the road if the bats can get to Cole. Vegas sees this as a virtual 5050, and that’s an issue, too. The win is up in the air at a minimum and might just go to the bullpen. Both pitchers are viable, but I’m leaning Sale over Cole due to the OPPK%s being 21.4% and 18.4%, respectively. Yes, it’s that close, and they are both the better pitchers on the slate if you want safety for cash games.
Strasburg makes a nice pivot off Sale and Cole, and if you miss on one of those two, Stras might wind up being better than the loser of that BOS/HOU matchup. He makes a great gpp play. Carrasco might be just as good and might be forgotten even more than Strasburg.
When it comes to cheaper bats, though, I’m leaning to Nick Pivetta. He carries a 500+ KScore for my magical 8k range. He isn’t much of a favorite, but I’m not as worried about SFG tonight and/or Stratton. Berrios has 60 point upside and makes another great gpp play, but you are risking a 15 point implosion, too. And, if I wanted to go dirt cheap slummin’, I’m not afraid to run Jaime Barria out there. Yes, it’s another risk. But, you get a solid Vegas favorite, solid KScore, TEX bats that run hot/cold at random, and a sub 7k price in exchange for any hitting stack you want…….and the Yankees are in one juicy spot. Lots to consider, but those would be my plays tonight above the other available pitchers.
Want more pitching breakdowns? See MDell’s article our members are raving about – Painting the Black
MLB Pitching to Exploit
I’m not going into much detail here. Just rest assured if our DFSA Grades like the aces with high marks, they are going to hate the scrubs with low marks. For one, Alex Cobb is currently sporting a 13.33ish ERA. Now, it won’t stay that way for long, but get on these guys while they are struggling. That’s what DFS is all about. In parentheses are the bats you should be stacking, especially when it’s also a high-powered offense….
MAIN
Bucholz (MIA)
Santiago (MIL)
Cashner (NYY)
Chatwood (@NYM)
Stratton (PHI)
Hernandez (@ARI)
How about some more winning?! I change these screenshots like I change mistresses. Seriously, why are you just taking the free content? Why aren’t you in here receiving the tools, optimizer, and coaching? These guys are, and these guys are dominating the competition.
DFS MLB Bats and Stack Considerations
I focus on attacking the pitchers above, and I love it when I see Vegas supporting the cause or a high powered offense matching up with these attackable pitchers. I will then focus on the better bats within the offense and key in on our batters grading out over 75 in our Research Station. Bear in mind, I’m listing day-to-day and 10day DL guys, too. Your job is to follow the news, or plug into our Slack Channels and get the details as our slates lock for the day.
Main Offenses to Stack
NYY – Judge, Andujar, Gardner, Bird, Torres, Romine
MIL – Braun, Aguilar, Shaw, Cain, Yelich
OAK – Olson, Chapman, Pinder, Piscotty
ARI – Lamb, Goldschmidt, Owings, Murphy, Ahmed
DET – McCann, Castellanos, Goodrum
TBR – Ramos, Miller, Wendle, Refsnyder
For more on DFS Stacking, see CeeGee’s article – MLB DFS Top Stacks
#DongCall Time!
This section takes on a change. I will simply leave it at my #200on200 guys for the foreseeable future. Posting pictures on the web is becoming more trouble than it’s worth, and it’s not like many people comment out on Twitter anyway. That’s a shame because it was fun.
#200on200 – #DongCall worthy
MAIN – Harper, Moustakas, Schwarber, Braun, Rizzo, MKemp, Happ, Olson, Aguilar, Cain, Longoria, Abreu, Shaw, Turner, DSantana, Joyce, Chapman, Pinder, TThompson, RLopez
Note ^ the frequent teams and other potential stacks.
Pay attention to the other DFS Army articles like Dong Detector for deeper dives into which bats are in the best spots. Hopefully, your research is started for today. If it feels like it’s pointing in a funky direction, no worries…….I feel just like you right now. Let’s keep our eyes peeled for directions the industry is pointing and re-evaluate as the day goes on. We can zig when they zag or hide in the herd. The choice is ours, and we will be discussing it in our Slack Forums all day long. Join us!
Final MLB DFS Thoughts
For MLB cash games, keep the stacking to a minimum. You can’t afford to grab stack Rockies in Coors and have them fall flat, which they occasionally do. ISO is a great stat to look at with wOBA for hitter-friendly parks. Remember to head over to DFSARMY.com, your one-stop-shop for stats, player recommendations, coaching, winning lineups discussion, and everything DFS related. Use code CHOP to trigger a 10% discount every month as long as you remain a member regardless of any future price increases. You are grandfathered in at your rate permanently!!
Your greatest compliment is helping me spread the word. Retweets and shoutouts are my favorite. Feel free to use #DongCall when you hit yours, too!
