Hello Everyone! I go by “Thunder Dan” around here and you can find me @ThunderDanDFS on twitter. I’m a history teacher by day, and DFS analyst and consultant by night.
Today I’ll be taking you through the pitching on the main slate tonight – a huge 15 gamer with a ton of pitching options. If you got the Cold War reference in the title – bonus points for you at the end of class! I’m going to try to help you narrow your player pool a bit, and help you focus on which pitchers are safe for cash games, as well as who has the most upside for tournaments. I will try focus on who the best plays are overall today, but always make sure to check the differences in pricing on Fanduel and Draftkings before locking anyone in. Cap flexibility matters – especially on such a big slate.
Did I mention its #FreebieFriday here at DFS ARMY??? That’s right, we are offering our premium content to the public today and access to our Research Station today – for one day only! Let’s take a look at who comes in at the top of our DFS Army rankings today on the Research Station – and feel free to click the link to look for yourself!
Some interesting names are popping today on the RS, I’m going to circle back to some of these guys in a minute, but first…
Cash Games = Safety
When picking a cash game pitcher, you’re going to want to consider the Vegas odds, park factor, the opponent match up, and recent results. I’m looking for someone is favored to win, pitching in a favorable ball park, hopefully against a weak opponent, and who has shown consistency over their last several starts. So who are we looking at?
Pricey, but for good reason….
Gerrit Cole (11000 FD, 12400 DK) at Arizona
Cole has been simply outstanding this season. Last week I wrote him up as the “don’t overthink it special” and he didn’t dissapoint racking up 12k’s in only 6 and 2/3 innings. He’s in a good spot tonight vs. a strikeout prone D-Backs team and is installed as a heavy -170 favorite. However, his price is a bit steep and may limit your ability to fit bats, so I don’t think he’s a must play, just a very good one if you can find the value.
JA Happ (9500 FD, 11700 DK) at Tampa
Happ is another guy who continued his strong season last outing, and was on my list last Sunday. He gets an exploitable matchup vs. Tampa in a good pitchers’ ballpark here and is a -135 favorite. He saves you 1500 in salary off Cole and I would feel just as safe using him. He has topped eight strikeouts in five of six outings this year and has a solid history of handling the Rays. Fire him up with confidence.
Speaking of Happ, he was on the winning roster pictured above. Did you know someone who read our free content last week used the plays we suggested a took down the Sunday Squeeze for a cool 10k? The next day he signed up and became a member. Take advantage of the free tools today and take down a tourney!
The STRONG mid-tier for Tourneys
I’m likely going to pay up for one of those first two in cash games – especially on a one pitcher site like Fanduel. Their prices on DK make it tough, but I still think they are by far the safest plays. However, we are loaded with pitching options today and I could probably make a case for another ten pitchers in this group, but I’ll try to pare it down to just my favorites. Remember, when looking at tournament pitchers we are willing to take more risks. We want to target high strikeout pitchers or pay down for cheaper pitchers who return on their salary on a points-per-dollar basis.
Walker Buehler ( 7700 FD, 8600 DK ) vs. Joey Lucchesi (8600 FD, 8300 DK)
These two pitchers are both coming in at the top of today’s Research Station are for good reason. Both are highly talented rookies who have already had success in their rookie campaigns. They face off today and both have favorable match ups against these offenses which struggle against the handedness of each pitcher.
Lucchesi has already had a few dominant outings, and is striking out well over a batter per inning. He is a slight underdog at home, but the line is close. The game has the lowest total on the board, which shows you that Vegas respects both of these young arms quite a bit. Pick on the Dodgers with lefties, and this kid is a legit arm.
Buehler has been very impressive in his first two starts as well, allowing only two earned runs over ten innings with 11 strikeouts. We always get excited to pick on the Padres with right handed starters, so Buehler is in a great spot today and I expect him to be pretty popular.
The reason I’m not considering these guys in cash games, at least not on Fanduel anyway, is because neither of them have pitched beyond the sixth inning this year.
Mike Foltynewicz (8100 FD, 9400 DK) vs. Atlanta
Folty comes into today’s game with the visiting Giants as a -140 favorite and he’s been pretty consistent this season. He has not pitched his best game yet, and I think today might be the day we see him blow up (in a good way). He has plus stuff and is really tough on righties. The Giants have been really bad against righties all season and Brandon Belt is really the only dangerous lefty in the whole lineup. The DK price is steep (sometimes the DK algorithm knows what’s up), but I love the discounted FD price.
Nick Kingham (8000 FD, 6800 DK) at Milwaukee
I wrote up the Pirates rookie on Sunday and what did do? Only take a perfect game into the 7th inning on his way to over 50 FD points. His salary got hiked a good bit, but I’m going back to him today against a Brewers team that right handed heavy and strikes out their fair share. I really like his price on DK where he makes a nice fit as an SP2 alongside one of the studs I mentioned earlier. Make me look again today, Nick!
You might be asking yourself – but what about Jose Berrios vs the White Sox? Well one look at his game log will show you he dominated them three starts ago, however since then he has been absolutely terrible, which on a slate like this that is loaded with pitching is enough to take me off him entirely. He is absolutely still in play for tournaments if you want to take a shot, that just won’t be me today.
Last but not least I always feel compelled to mention who I think is the worst pitcher on the slate, who you should never, ever, ever roster and who you should probably stack against. And tonight that pitcher is Josh Tomlin. He has been so bad it’s not even funny. He is a fly ball pitcher who can’t get anyone out pitching in Yankee Stadium – good luck dude!
Thanks for reading guys, please make sure to check out ALL the great premium content today here at DFS ARMY on #FreebieFriday and good luck in your contests. May the Fourth be with you!
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