Welcome to the daily MLB Pitching Breakdown for Fanduel, DraftKings, and Fantasydraft!

In case you all didn’t know, my name is Matt, mdellagnese14 on twitter. I am currently a student at Springfield College with a love and passion for sports, mainly baseball.

I was brought to the DFS Army to write pitching articles for all members of the DFSArmy! If you are not a member, join the DFSArmy and use promo code “DFSMATT” to get 10% off your subscription!

I am mostly a Fanduel player, so the content in my articles will be for geared mainly towards Fanduel. However, I will include pricing from all three sites (Fanduel, Draftkings, FantasyDraft). Some plays may be better off for the two pitcher sites and I will mention that when needed about a pitcher.

Pitching is one of the most, if not the most important position in your MLB lineups and selecting the right one will help you tremendously. Go check out the MLB Pitching Strategy article to get my thought process on picking these pitchers each slate!

NOTE: most of the stats I used are from a 14-game sample to the handiness of pitchers. If I reference season numbers, I will mention that!

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Definitions of Stats used in articles via Fangraphs.com

K% (Strikeout Percentage): Frequency with which the pitcher has struck out a batter, calculated as strikeouts divided by total batters faced.

An average K% is 20%, anything above is considered great or elite

BB% (Walk Percentage): Frequency with which the pitcher has issued a walk, calculated as walks divided by total batters faced. Average BB% for pitchers is 7.7%, anything lower is considered great or elite

BABIP (Batting Average on Balls in Play): The rate at which the pitcher allows a hit when the ball is put in play. A BABIP at or near .300 is considered average. EXAMPLE: if a pitcher has a BABIP of .200 it means he could be getting lucky and balls in play are turned into outs if they have a BABIP of .400 he could be getting unlucky on balls in play and they are turning into hits.

xFIP (Expected Fielding Independent Pitching): An estimate of a pitcher’s ERA based on strikeouts, walks/HBP, and fly balls allowed, assuming league average results on balls in play and home run to fly ball ratio. The Lower the xFIP the better. 3.80 is around average.

SIERA (Skill-Interactive ERA): An ERA estimator that attempts to more accurately capture a pitcher’s performance based on strikeouts, walks/HBP, home runs, and batted ball data. The lower the better 3.90 is considered average, so anything below that is great to excellent. Anything about is poor.

Hard% (Hard Contact Percentage): Percentage of hard-hit batted balls. Anything below 30% is considered average or better. the lower Hard% the better, meaning pitchers are giving up more soft contact.

wRC+: A rate statistic that credits a hitter for the value of each outcome rather than treating them all equally. League average is 100, each point above or below that is one percentage point better or worse than league average. wRC+ is a better representation of offense value.

O-Swing% = Swings at pitches outside the zone/pitches outside the zone

Z-Swing%  = Swings at pitches inside the zone/pitches inside the zone

Swing% = Swings/Pitches

O-Contact% = Number of pitches on which contact was made on pitches outside the zone / Swings on pitches outside the zone

Z-Contact%  = Number of pitches on which contact was made on pitches inside the zone / Swings on pitches inside the zone

SwStr% = Swings and misses/Total Pitches

 

BULLPEN REPORT

In this section, I will post photos of fangraphs.com tables for the top-10 bullpens in Earned Runs given up over the last 14 days! This could help with picking your hitters if a starter may not make it long!

 

MAIN SLATE

Sonny Gray (7.3k FD) (6.7k DK) (12.7k FD2) @ BAL

Definitely did not think Gray would make the list today, but something has to give here. Baltimore has been awful of late, and even though the weather here is not ideal for pitchers I am intrigued. Looking at Baltimore’s hitters, Machado and Jones are the two that scare me the most against Gray’s pitches. No one else has really had a ton of success against them. Baltimore has not gotten any better against RHP in the L14 and still have a 61 wRC+ with a 27.7% K rate. They are hitting for virtually no power and have a .263 wOBA too. Gray has been horrible all season, but this is the perfect opponent right now to turn it around. Last time he faced them he did get us 31 fanduel points and that is perfect for his price now. We cannot trust Gray in cash, but I wouldn’t totally cross him off if you are playing multiple lineups for tournaments. Despite having an awful last start, he still was able to get 7 strikeouts. There are strikeouts to be had in the Baltimore lineup every night.

Jack Flaherty (7.7k FD) (9.2k DK) (18k FD2) vs PIT

There are a few weather spots we have to monitor tonight, and this is definitely one of them. Flaherty has been very good this year and has shown us the upside he has. He struck out 13 in his start against the Phillies. This is already his 3^rd start against the Pirates, but just his first at home. He has been a bright spot for the Cards this year and has a 27.7% K rate with a 1.02 WHIP this season. Despite getting hit fairly hard (37.5% Hard%), Flaherty still has a 3.48 SIERA and 45.8% GB rate this year. The Pirates have been fairly good and have not been striking out a ton, but Flaherty has shown he can get us strikeouts. His two starts against PIT have been his lowest K’s of the season, so that does concern me tonight. He has been very good to both sides of the plate, allowing a lower wOBA to lefties, but a very high 31% K rate to righties. I think he is worth a shot in tournaments tonight.

Tanner Roark (8.6k FD) (7.9k DK) (15.2k FD2) @ ATL

I never am excited to pick a pitcher against the Braves, but Roark has been very consistent this year. If you tell me you can get a guy who has continually scored 30+ fanduel points at his price I’ll take him. 7 of his 10 starts this season have scored more than 30 fanduel points and he topped 46 against them last time he faced them. Roark has a quality start in all but 2 starts this season and only has gone less than 6 innings one time this year. Atlanta used to be down in the 14% strikeout rate range vs RHP, now they are up at 22% and aren’t hitting for much power of late (.103 ISO L14). I think people will be off Roark because he isn’t a sparkling name, but don’t ignore him tonight. Roark actually has a career-high 22.5% K rate this season and under a 1.00 WHIP, allowing hitters just a .196 BAA. Over his career, he never has gotten hit very hard (average of 25%) and can keep the ball in the yard. Lefties are the power of the Braves team, and that is where Roark can struggle, but if he is able to get past them, he should be fine tonight.

Aaron Nola (9.5k FD) (11.1k DK) (21.3k FD2) @ LAD

What a matchup this is going to be. Nola vs Kershaw in LA. The Dodgers have been pretty good of late and have a 22.2% K rate over their L14. Nola’s strikeout rate has been rising this year and it is finally near where he had it last year. He has a 24.6% K rate this season and a low 6% walk rate. He’s been able to limit the damage of late giving up more than 2 ER just once in his last 5 starts. Nola has been amazing and has the upside of 12+ strikeouts any given start. Nola’s struggles have come against lefties and his walks are coming all against lefties. The Dodgers do have some lefties, but they haven’t been all that scary this year. While everyone will be on Kershaw tonight, I absolutely love Nola to go against the chalk and a nice discount.

Shane Bieber (6k FD) (7.3k DK) (14.5k FD2) @ MIN

Cleveland Indians rookie Shane Bieber is making his MLB Debut tonight. He seemed to be on the fast track to the MLB pitching just 10 starts between AA and AAA this year. Throughout his minor league career, he has been at about 8 K/9 with virtually no walks. This season he seems to have been lucky in AAA with his 5 starts, giving up just a .148 average, but also a .183 BABIP. His strand rate will likely sit around the 75-80% mark which is very good and more sustainable than his 92.6% in AAA this year. We do not have a lot of information on him, but he had nearly a 60% groundball rate in AAA this year and 46.6% in AA. He is a low to mid 90s fastball, and average curveball and change. The biggest thing with Bieber is his ability to locate his pitches, making them appear better than they are. I think this prospect is definitely worth a shot in tournaments tonight. The Twins are scuffling of late and have a 23.4% K rate vs RHP with a 72 wRC+, .207 average, .280 wOBA, and .136 ISO. This is a good matchup for Bieber in his first MLB start.

Clayton Kershaw (11k FD) (11.8k DK) (22.9k FD2) vs PHI

I do not normally like to pick pitchers coming off the DL, but after some reports I read on Kershaw, he seems to be fine. Given the options on today’s slate, not too much is safe for me. He threw more than planned in a simulated game last week and had a good bullpen session just 5 days ago. He comes back to a wonderful matchup against the slumping Phillies. Over the L14 vs LHP, the Phillies have a 24% K rate and just 70 wRC+. They have a ton of strikeouts in their lineup and no one really scares me too much. Clearly, something was wrong with Kershaw before he was put on the DL, but the Dodgers need him here. I did not see any reports on him being limited of any sorts. He’s not my top option today because he’s coming off an injury and Roberts may try to keep him lower on the pitch count, but with the options, I do think he’s in play.

Lance McCullers Jr. (9k FD) (8.9k DK) (16.9k FD2) vs BOS

I don’t normally like to pick on the Red Sox, but McCullers has been fantastic this year. The Sox travel into Houston riding a nice series against the Jays. I like McCullers more if Mookie is out of the lineup, but still, think he’s a solid GPP play at lower ownership tonight. The last time he had a bad start, he followed that up with a 61 fanduel point outing vs a Mariners team that was hot at the time. McCullers has also been fantastic at home this season and “eh” on the road. He has allowed just a .210 wOBA at home compared to .342 on the road. He also hasn’t given up an HR at home either. He’s a reverse splits pitcher this year, meaning he’s been a bit better against lefties than righties. The Sox likely will only have 4 lefties in their lineup tonight, but McCullers can get to them. He’s been getting more groundballs against RHH though, so that will help him a bit here tonight. I’m not saying to use him in cash, because he is risky against the Red Sox, but I love his tournament upside tonight.

MAIN SLATE RANKINGS

1. Aaron Nola (all formats)
2. Clayton Kershaw (all formats, he could be on an 85-90 pitch limit and we cannot trust Dave Roberts)
3. Tanner Roark (all formats, given the options tonight, I think he’s cash viable)
4. Lance McCullers (GPP)
5. Jack Flaherty (GPP)
6. Shane Bieber (GPP)
7. Sonny Gray (GPP)

I do not like this slate for cash games at all. I would rather do more GPP lineups and today. You ALL need to be looking at DFSnDONUTS article about MME today because I believe it is a WONDERFUL slate to work on your MME Skills. Good Luck DFSARMY!